I have been really slacking! No new thread for the last few weeks.
So I thought I would rectify that by being even more lazy and trying a
month long thread.
Summertime and the living (and news) is slow.
Hope all is well with my friends here at the Buzz.
Julie
Hey Jules,
Glad to see you're back!
Andy
Still dead money. Great qtr and still no action on this toilet paper. Man I am glad I exited months ago.
FAZ has come off its bottom and should make a move higher this week. GLA.
Does Siri still have 4 billion in debt? Thought so. The Stern move is the only catalyst investors should be worrying about, if he stays 20% up, if he goes, 40% down...too risky for my blood. I will pick off 1000 shares just to experience the ride, which ever way it goes. FXP is also a screaming buy.
FAZ, FXP are safe plays at these levels.
SlimRothelisberger
Looks like these threads are dead money as well. Get short.
OK, so new information is in (from the OEM sales for July and the 2nd quarter CC) and from that we can see that SIRIXM added at LEAST another 150,000 subs in July. From history I will project that they add at least another 280,000 subs in the 3rd quarter (I will revise that projection as the new sales numbers come in and show a more clear picture of the true figures). One thing I would expect this time, is that churn gos up because of the amount of subs they got last 3rd quarter which means more subs come up for renewal. While I dont expect it to go up past what would be considered normal it will go up more then what we have seen in the last 2 quarters. I also dont expect that to effect my projection of at least 280,000 subs this 3rd quarter because once again I am ONLY INCLUDING NEW OEM sales and NOT anything else. I would expect new retail and used OEMs to cover any increase of churn.
Please once again these are base numbers to work from and there are other figures that will have to be taken into account. But be aware they are the lowest numbers I see happening at this time and if anything the actual number will most likely be higher then my projection.
For those wondering why I am saying 150,000 in the first month of this quarter and only another 130,000 in the next 2 months of the quarter. It is because of what Edmonds has said and what happens as of history in the next two months. That does not mean sales will for sure drop off that much but that there is a likelyhood they will. So because of that I am taking a conservative sales number of 950,000 OEM sales for Aug. and 900,000 for Sep. and using a 61 to 62% penitration rate (because Mel stated in the CC that they are in the low 60s), taking that along with a ALL-IN churn of 500,000 a month, then you get at least another 130,000 for the next two months.
Originally Posted by Big Ben
Thats funny Ben because while I believe the market (in general) will go down soon I am thinking beginning to the middle of Sep. (If the Republicans take control of the house in Nov. it will go back up some again and if they get both the house and senate then it will return to what it is today but if they cant get the Bush tax cuts extended then it will go down again huge.). After saying that though I would almost only be holding SIRIXM the reason is clear and what we have seen of how SIRIXM has handled the last down turn in the economy. The fact is it was good for them even while they were losing 500,000 subs. Why because they were able during that time to show great metrics like huge increases in EBITDA and FCF and not to long after that a actual profit. All while they acually had less subs then they had before. So taking that along with the fact they will have about 1.5 million more subs and over 500,000 selfpaying subs then they had before then you get them being in even a better position then they were in, back when the last reccession happen and they lost subs before. What it does is give time for the current subs to catch up and surpass paying for new subs. This gos back to a disagreement I had with Tyler from before were I felt 900,000 OEM run rate was best at this time and he felt 1 million is. At this point in time I would rather them show a huge growing cash flow and less growth of subs. I think 170,000 a quarter is great if it has them getting a FCF of 50 to 100 million each and EVERY quarter. I can wait for the subs to come and my way also gets them to a point at a slower rate were it will be way more difficult to even keep up with its own churn. Point in fact, there will be a point at which the OEMs will have to have a 18 million run rate just to keep up with SIRIXMs churn. I see that number being around 29 to 31 million subs. Getting 500,000 subs a quarter gets them to that point fast (about 4.5 years) and then were do they go????? that is the question they are in no way ready to go into Europe within the next 4 or 5 years. The last thing you want to see from a company is stagnation.
P.S. I know there are many that disagree with what I just said but to show it better of what I am talking about lets take it to extremes and say SIRIXM got 10 million subs this year but the OEM sales then dropped back to what they are now and what is projected to be in the future. What happens then???? Thats right SIRIXM starts to lose subs at a huge rate so while you got the PPS to go up for that one year it gos down that same amount the very next year and even more the following years until they can show they are growing again.
I hate to say it, but I believe Sirius dead money being true right now as well. I am disgusted and the MM's are going for another take down to low .90's very soon. Only an immediate Stern announcement can send shares up as Ben states, but without it, we will suffer holding especially with overall market ready to take a huge swoon with slowing economy and China real estate bust coming.
Picked up 2000 at .9835. Anyone else buying at these levels or sitting back and seeing if it possibly goes even lower? Thoughts?
Right now I am holding out for .97, but may change my mind later in the day. I am extremely worried about China's real estate looming 30 - 40 % price collapse and its affects on the overall world markets.
i have no doubt that China's real estate prices are in bubble territory. Not sure about just how much the correction (30% to 40% you say) wil be and certainly dont know how much Siri will be dragged down by an overall market dip. Will be interesting to see if they can hold the line around 98 after such a good quarterly report.
Sold 10k shares at 1.04 last week...buying back at .95...hopefully!
JS
Reply With Quote