SIRIUS Weekly Thread Week of 2/22/2010

[Sirius Roadkill]

Sirius XM Radio Inc. Issues FY 2010 Revenue Outlook In-Line With Analysts' Estimates; Reiterates FY 2010 EBITDA Outlook

Sirius XM Radio Inc. announced that for fiscal 2010, it expects revenue of over $2.7 billion and adjusted income from operations to be up approximately 20% to $550 million. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts on an average are expecting the Company to report revenue of $2.8 million and EBITDA of $546 million for fiscal 2010

[Sirius Roadkill]

One thing I am not crazy about in the guidance is that they are only projecting top-line revenue growth of 6.72% for 2010; they had previously guided to "high single digit growth" . . . . which one would think means 8% or 9%

2X next year's growth is only 13.44 multiple . . . which puts the current SP about where it should be

We're gonna need OEM to get back to 12/13mm units and see significant CPO inflows . . . and maybe ad revenue starts to come back later this year . . .

and of course the big wildcard . . . can we somehow monetize the 40+mm deactivated receivers sitting idle . . . Mel has said in the past that from time-to-time they will "light-up" deactivated receivers . . . let us hope that is part of a broader plan to grow revenue . . .

[SiriuslyLong]

that's how I'm taking it SL . . . it was kind a of "throw-away" line by Frear

p.s. plus whatever cash has been dumped into the coffers since January 1 as that would not have been included in the report

We'll find out soon enough. The 10k will be filed in a couple weeks. That's big. Good find.

[SiriuslyLong]

. . . can we somehow monetize the 40+mm deactivated receivers sitting idle . . .. . .

That my friend is a good question. I cancelled one sub when my Stilletto wet the bed. Just got an offer for something like 6 months free. They're trying!! Shoot, I cancelled 9 months ago.

The next ad should target that. People smiling and laughing on the road. Driving down the Pacific Coast Hwy.... Through the Colorado mountains. Cross country drive with no interuption............... Those of us who listen to Howard know when another driver is listening to Howard. It's priceless.

[proactiv]

I promise this is the last time I will mention FAZ, FXP. Has anyone pick up these shares?
Big Ben

Yes, Ben. I did pick up some FAZ last week.

Hope you are feeling better.

[SiriMonkey]

Hi People! I see some familiar faces in here still!

Yes, long time no see...and yes I have held my shares of SIRI this entire time. I was just getting ulcers watching the daily ups and downs so I decided to take some time off from watching it. Glad I did.

I think the timing of releasing the report now instead of March signifies good news as it will give some momentum to stay above $1.00 in order to break out past it's magical 10 consecutive day mark. I plan to hold out to see what happens after we hit it, which it looks like we will. Afterall, it cruised past $1 without any big news coming out and now this will just edge it up even further. Then once it passes it's "10 day trial period" we (I hope) should see more people set up and take notice and want to join in.

GLA!

Jeff aka mrmertz
PS - Where's Julie?

Hi Jeff,

Glad to seen your back! SRK said you asked about me, I'm at work keeping
the bank afloat. I agree about the roller coaster, hopefully we're on
a less rocky ride now and you can give your ulcers a rest.

Please stick around Jeff, we missed you.

Julie

[candleman]

S&P raised the target price to 1.50 today. It was 1.00

[SiriuslyLong]

S&P raised the target price to 1.50 today. It was 1.00

Maybe so, but this guy says 28 cents.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...eard_LeadStory

[SiriuslyLong]

I'm sorry folks, the link only gets you 10% of the article. I pulled of google finance. Try this.http://www.google.com/finance?client=ig&q=SIRI

[Sirius Roadkill]

We'll find out soon enough. The 10k will be filed in a couple weeks. That's big. Good find.

just finished skimming the 10-K's

here's the COH summary for the combined company:

Cash and cash equivalents $ 383,489

so there it is SL . . . squares with Frear's quote of more than $380mm