SIRI Weekly Thread for 8-17-09

[john]

you never know where this could be in 15 years is all im saying, debt free, world wide, standard option in all vehicles... lifetime subscription included in the cost of every vehicle??? very futuristic thinking...(not realistic thinking)

That all may very well happen. Except as I have always said and even SIRIXM has now said that they will not be 100% penitration due to the fact that the lower end models have take rates that do not promote the cost of them doing it. The point being when you have terrible figures then what you get is a terrible projection. The figures he had can never happen, as an example the ARPU is at 10.66 the the highest possible figure right now is anywhere from 12 to 12.5 and even that is outright high. You cant say just because there are 250 million cars and a take rate of 44% say that you are going to have 110 million subs at 15 dollars a sub that is impossible. Because some of the OEM subs will be a "family plan" sub which is much less then 15 and which is why you need to use a ARPU figure.


P.S. As someone else has already mentioned he did not even include the dilution of the liberty deal which knocks his figure down by 40% right off the bat. So even if we use his figures and include that one thing then you are already down to 11.4 dollars a share. Do you see what I am saying.


Just so you know I was one who also thought it go as high as 20 a share in 5 or 6 years but that was including much of it being hype not value and before the liberty deal and a 40% of the company being given away as a fee.

[john]

Charles and Tyler,i will not post here again until this moron is banned,have not posted much because he is here,was here months ago and left,now he is back....not worth my time to go through this drivel everyday...
Not in favor of banning anyone ever,but he produces nothing positive or productive to this site...was hoping he went away,but not...
just my 2 cents...

Good it will give me a chance to catch up to your post count, you basterd.

[Jason_Lucas_ADP]

.77 looks like the number, where we hit resistance. For all the longs, congrats, now take 10-30% off the table and throw it in the bag! Please don't have adhd, this still a very risky investment, don't kid yourself. Ask yourself, could this stock ever have a .6 or .5 handle ever again, if you say yes, then take some chips off the table. I have been investing since 99 and trust me the house wins a good percentage of the time, right now your the winner! Get up and walk away with something, please. Never be afraid of taking gains, you can't predict the future. This stock has been on a tear since .54 its .77 now in a week! Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered! I still think Cramer is a dope.

We can agree that this is a generally a bullish stock now though. It has had huge gains this week, and its healthy to see a little pull back after that. I'm personally going to hold onto the shares I have now, and buy more if it goes back down to .60 or lower. Selling them at .77 guaruntees a profit, but there is absolutely no guaruntee its going to retrace back to .60. I'd rather wait for it to hit 1.50 or higher before selling any shares and buy more if it does drop.

[SiriuslyLong]

Well that sucked. Dropped like a rock retrenched and dropped again around an hour later. It's always something with this stock.

I wish I knew why other than there were more sell orders than buy orders.

[Sirius Roadkill]

P.S. As someone else has already mentioned he did not even include the dilution of the liberty deal which knocks his figure down by 40% right off the bat. So even if we use his figures and include that one thing then you are already down to 11.4 dollars a share. Do you see what I am saying.

Hi John

That was me that mentioned the fact that the good doctor was missing about 3,200,000,000 Liberty shares in his analysis . . .

But hey, what's a few billion shares between friends?

p.s. what is that time frame (2003?) where we used to zoom the chart to be able to see that sudden spike (can't remember; but I know you used to zoom it also)

[Big Ben]

THis is for you John...
08/03/2009 09:42:55 Sold 10000 SIRI @ 0.479 4,779.88 $14,124.16
08/04/2009 10:29:44 Sold 9000 SIRI @ 0.4959 4,452.99 $18,577.15
08/04/2009 10:56:43 Bought 10000 SIRI @ 0.51 -5,109.99 $13,467.16
08/05/2009 08:16:22 Bought 9000 SIRI @ 0.57 -5,139.99 $8,327.17
08/05/2009 09:32:49 Bought 20 FAZ @ 29.4697 -599.38 $7,727.79
08/05/2009 09:44:35 Bought 10000 SIRI @ 0.5999 -6,008.99 $1,718.80
08/05/2009 09:55:21 Sold 10000 SIRI @ 0.59 5,889.85 $7,608.65
08/06/2009 09:43:21 Bought 20 FAZ @ 25.9 -527.99 $7,080.66
08/17/2009 08:00:02 Bought 40 FAZ @ 28.04 -1,131.59 $5,949.07
08/17/2009 08:03:11 Bought 30 DOG @ 60.88 -1,836.39 $4,112.68
08/17/2009 08:07:24 Bought 100 FXP @ 10.85 -1,094.99 $3,017.69
08/19/2009 12:41:07 Sold 10000 SIRI @ 0.6041 6,030.75 $9,048.44
08/20/2009 09:32:15 Sold 10000 SIRI @ 0.6207 6,196.85 $15,245.29
08/20/2009 09:53:07 Bought 15000 SIRI @ 0.654 -9,819.99 $5,425.30
08/21/2009 09:34:16 Sold 10000 SIRI @ 0.7696 7,685.71 $13,111.01

I unlike others put my money to work for me, buy and hold is dead. Buy take profits and forget about pie in the sky. Today is the perfect example up 14% at one point then almost closes at .69...now its back to .72. Amazing stock to trade. I still believe this pig could get taken back to the wood shed and all the longs will be left holding the bag. Not me buddy, I am free from the SIRI hell and I have quadrupled my money this year..not to bad since FEB 17th...and that quad is very close to cash. 6k...25k...6months...call me what you like, John. If we open red on Monday and this fat overweight pig starts to fall, look out. GLA

FF Draft tomorrow....sick.

[Sirius Roadkill]

$0.71 in AH trading . . . stick with your sane old buddy SRK and only apply wave theory to your twinfin . . .

nice soft landing . . not that bad a place to settle til Oct CC

[proactiv]

Well that sucked. Dropped like a rock retrenched and dropped again around an hour later. It's always something with this stock.

Well, gee, SL.. it can't go up every day. Who would have thought at the beginning of this week that we would close out above .70? I'd say this was a very good week, both for longs and for swing traders.

[toxdoc]

THis is for you John...
08/03/2009 09:42:55 Sold 10000 SIRI @ 0.479 4,779.88 $14,124.16
08/04/2009 10:29:44 Sold 9000 SIRI @ 0.4959 4,452.99 $18,577.15
08/04/2009 10:56:43 Bought 10000 SIRI @ 0.51 -5,109.99 $13,467.16
08/05/2009 08:16:22 Bought 9000 SIRI @ 0.57 -5,139.99 $8,327.17
08/05/2009 09:32:49 Bought 20 FAZ @ 29.4697 -599.38 $7,727.79
08/05/2009 09:44:35 Bought 10000 SIRI @ 0.5999 -6,008.99 $1,718.80
08/05/2009 09:55:21 Sold 10000 SIRI @ 0.59 5,889.85 $7,608.65
08/06/2009 09:43:21 Bought 20 FAZ @ 25.9 -527.99 $7,080.66
08/17/2009 08:00:02 Bought 40 FAZ @ 28.04 -1,131.59 $5,949.07
08/17/2009 08:03:11 Bought 30 DOG @ 60.88 -1,836.39 $4,112.68
08/17/2009 08:07:24 Bought 100 FXP @ 10.85 -1,094.99 $3,017.69
08/19/2009 12:41:07 Sold 10000 SIRI @ 0.6041 6,030.75 $9,048.44
08/20/2009 09:32:15 Sold 10000 SIRI @ 0.6207 6,196.85 $15,245.29
08/20/2009 09:53:07 Bought 15000 SIRI @ 0.654 -9,819.99 $5,425.30
08/21/2009 09:34:16 Sold 10000 SIRI @ 0.7696 7,685.71 $13,111.01

I unlike others put my money to work for me, buy and hold is dead. Buy take profits and forget about pie in the sky. Today is the perfect example up 14% at one point then almost closes at .69...now its back to .72. Amazing stock to trade. I still believe this pig could get taken back to the wood shed and all the longs will be left holding the bag. Not me buddy, I am free from the SIRI hell and I have quadrupled my money this year..not to bad since FEB 17th...and that quad is very close to cash. 6k...25k...6months...call me what you like, John. If we open red on Monday and this fat overweight pig starts to fall, look out. GLA

FF Draft tomorrow....sick.

Ben,
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm not seeing what's so good about the above trades. Excluding the first 2 (since I don't know what you bought those for), I calculate that you've purchased 44,000 averaged at .592 and sold 40,000 averaged at .647. You spent $26056 (roughly) and sold for a total of $25880 (roughly). That's a loss of about $176. Granted, you increased your number of shares. But wouldn't it have been easier to just buy 4,000 more shares initially rather then spending $80 in commissions in increase your chare count.

I know you argue against the buy and hold stating that you quadrupled your money since February. But, I'm a guy and hold guy for the most part (have sold on preconference spikes and got back in a couple times) and I've more that quadrupled my money in the same time period. Investe $5,000 when @.1185 per share. Now worth little less than $30,000. So seems that buy and hold may not be that bad.

[SiriuslyLong]

Well, gee, SL.. it can't go up every day. Who would have thought at the beginning of this week that we would close out above .70? I'd say this was a very good week, both for longs and for swing traders.

Good point, but I still would like to understand what happened.