Market Watch for week of 8/17/2009

[Dr. Dave]

Dr Dave, what did you think about today's movement on spng? I got a little worried when i saw .137 as the low, but i think that was a fluke because i don't even see it on my charts.

I'm trying to read how the action is compared to the moving averages and technically they don't look great. I think I know better because I've done tons of DD...maybe im over thinking and down too close, let me know what you thought.



Daily Update on SPNG (by me): The news seemed promising because they did $6.9MM orders first week and a half of July, $4.1MM in the second week and finished with $23.5MM for the month. A weekly average of 5.8. They did $18MM in June. Now they have $13.5 for the first half of August, current average for august is $6.75MM. They are averaging for 6.5 weeks $7.38MM per week, although increased from 4.5 to 5.75 from june to august.

At 52 weeks a year that comes out to $383MM. Knowing the sales are cyclical and not knowing how many are reorders...yet factoring that they are still growing. Lets say that current performance times 50%...thats $191MM for 2010. at 17% profits thats 32MM earnings divided by 722MM shares equals .04 EPS, times 12 P/E we get .53 a share?

That to me seems very conservative.

Jus' spit ballin here anyone can chime in on my silly math, im new to this still...Tyler maybe if you can read it (its just fast talking on a computer so i did no editing) if you can read it, let me know if my spng calcs are right or how wrong they are.

thanks

EDIT: I read the profit % was 17 to 20% in 10Q i think.

PS. They are also looking into share buyback that could up the result by 30%

Hi - Little busy at work here, my boss arrives pretty shortly, will respond in more detail later.

The price for SPNG is in the pennant I drew, I'm not worried, unless it closes south of that line. Not too concerned about intraday. If there are 2 closes south, then the bet's likely off for me for the time being, but will have to take a closer look here later in the afternoon evening.

Regarding moving averages... I completely scrapped using these for pennies, at least for the ones that we are looking at. I'll explain later, it has to to do with artifacts in the math that are dependent on which longer term phase each of the stocks are in. If you notice, I've removed them from the penny setting I have for these stocks. All other indicators, I've cut the time periods in half, but I also give them little weight. This is just me of course, but as I learn more and more as we go along, I think support and resistance in its different forms, patterns, wave impulses, and candles have more importance. That's just me though.

SPNG pennant for today...



p.s. I need to take down a bunch of stuff from the web, at some point, I'll get my own web account...

zoinks - looks like the other indicators aren't cut in half on this chart, have to reupdate that list of stocks.

[Dr. Dave]

my spec portfolio is all red -- except for the 2 JPM options contracts i bought this afternoon. and they are up after commissions a total of $2.50!!!!

LOL,

I didn't realize you were in with me. I'm here at work, and decided to focus on work and not posting, since I had things covered, except ASFX, slipped my mind to get out.

Well, we bought in after the drop, so its more risky. But ok to learn for the first trade, its peanuts win or lose, and why I picked these cheaper contracts for the first trade. You can see the last sizes were 10 contracts, which has the better commissions ratio.. ie. you have the main commission charge 1 time, then the smaller contract fee 10 times for a trade like that.

But now that you have the ticker loaded, you can see that for JPM's 4.05% drop, that option gained 53.45% today. So you are looking at roughly 11 fold leverage today. Which is a way if to actually book profits on short moves.

I got a little carried away with the hasbro stuff last night, took me a while to crank it out... I'll do my best to crank out some stuff on the options thread, but first, I'll post stuff about today's trade here.

Regarding the target - we have a few choices, since these are the sept contracts, which is some time away, the premium loss isn't significant, I'll show how to figure that out to the best of my knowledge, so we can hold these thru the week if needed, not sure if there will be a short squeeze, as this downturn was anticipated a while back, and august contracts expire this friday. But we will be watching JPM more than we watch the actual options contract. Looks like these biggie run up stocks closed with solid red candles, so we'll make a couple of JPM price targets, if they bust thru, we keep holding. We can also watch the 9/39 EMA crosses on the 15, 60 min charts.

We'll look at what the biggies say tonight, and if there is continued downturn, we'll keep holding. If the price moves sideways after a down turn, we cash out.

[Sworntwofun]

Whats up guys!

Been busy today......

NSMG had a good run up to from .02 to .027 and closes at .019 could of been a good day trade I was gonna do it..but spent the powder on 33k shares of BEHL instead and closes green...

That SYMW ran pretty good today at first I thought was another pump and dump opened at .0011 and closed green at .0018 with 1255749066 trades...
Im in with 300k shares at .001 so im good on that one....

QASP I had a day trade set up for 1/2 of my 200k shares at .04...those are the ones I got at .033 friday it got close to .039 but no cigar, i plan on trying to work that half and keep the 100k shares at .01 as my core long term.... and if trying to trade the 2nd block dont work out I'll keep them and see what happens at the end of the month...but over all adv on all of them are .0215 and closed at .034 so im in good shape anyway.....

you guys know the details on EVFL, IFSL and MGLG so i wont repeat anything you dont already know...

ASFX I sorta burried right now with 500k shares Im gonna leave them alone and say a couple of Our Fathers every now and then and hope one day they will turn around.....

SIRI is heading in the right direction but today manage to close red but Im up over all 20k so im good........

Thats my entire hand which I feel pretty good with and I think with patience they will do something........what who knows but something...

[thetree]

Was just going to say that I could imagine some lazy overweight guy, scratching his belly and cranking out emails, thinking to himself "Man, this is too easy ... gullible minions! Go buy a couple million more shares suckers!"

You never know ...

Tree, is that true about covering 5 different company's?

Yeah Tib, I was searching around for her, cuz i wanted to get an idea what she looked like, but i couldnt really find her. Im not on any of the social networking sites tho, so im not sure if you could find her on there maybe?? ANYWAY, I just entered "karen willoughby investors relations" into google. I dont remember exactly what came up, and if they were recent or not, but i was really surprised at the number of companies.

[Dr. Dave]

Bass - first target will be $39 for JPM, it has price support and fib support there. That should give you a ~40% gain at $2.20/contract.




On the 60 min, we have a channel to break, maybe expect a stall, but indicators look like the downturn is in effect..

[Dr. Dave]

Weekly showing a price support at $39

[Dr. Dave]

Partner GS showing a mini head and shoulder's top... lines more clear on this one, and contracts more pricey... perhaps the better play, but oh well... measured target is $170-160=$10... so $160-$10=$150, which matches price support pretty much on the money...



Anyhoo - if this guy breaks down to the pattern target/support line, JPM should follow.

[Dr. Dave]

Interpretations should follow previous report... (plus, need to get to work)

[Dr. Dave]

[Dr. Dave]

HAS price currently linked to toy index, and SP500. Just to note, the current peak on the SP500 matches the price resistance of Nov 2008, the 38.2% FIB, and the 1000 round number. Funny how that works isn't it? Actually, the Nasdaq turned at gap price resistance, the 61.8% fib, and the 2000 round number. Creepy... eh? <-- Canadian for Sean