SIRI Weekly Thread 8-10-09

[JohnnyIrishXM]

OK Johnny, I hate to admit this in public....so let's pretend this is private LOL

I check it out daily. It is my source for information on what stocks to swing trade. If the fool calls it a hot stock, it usually is, for at least a few days. I'm not a rich guy, but I'm very secure so to speak. And I actually owe that to stock picks that I've made using the FOOL.

Now, remember that is not public knowlege. The guys on this site would just laugh their asses off at me, and I don't want that

you won't hear me laughing,Gardner has some well documented winners over the years..

As we attack .57 and then .58 again..

[john]

I agree on the definition completely,but those who were saying it back then ,3 years as you say,was wise advice,if not early and based on historical bull runs ending,and glad they said it..helped me make my decision,as you know when the Neg quarters come it is too late to get out of investments affected by it...so better early or late than never is my motto...Of course my wife was in the mortgage bussiness and laid off in first wave,so had inside info so to speak...

Are you kidding look at what the market was then and what it went up to just before it took the dive. We are not talking about a few hundred points but try a few thousand. These people were saying this kind of crap as far back as the beginning of 2006. When unemployment went under 5% they were saying that it is false because many of those jobs were at much lower pay rates. WELL WHAT ARE THOSE JOBS NOW with a unemployment rate at 9.4% (and it will rise again), are those jobs somehow better now. This is my point, if the economy sucked back in 2006 with under 5% unemployment and a growing GDP then it really really REALLY sucks now. I will also tell you this we will not get back to the point, when the MSM was saying the economy just sucked back in 2006 for a very very long time to come. For these same jackasses to do a flip flop with the conditions being far worse then they were back when they first started to say it, is ridiculous. I will bet you the MSM starts to say after the rate gos to 10% and then comes back to 9.4% that we are in a great economy. Lets remember thats is twice as bad unemployment as when they started to say the economy sucks. I bet we are at or above 9.4% unemployment or above for at least another year.

[relmor2003]

Relmor,what do you take from the chart Bass posted?

I like it. I am a believer in elliot waves, to a degree, although penny stocks with high SI are hard to read using this theory. But Ive done it anyway. I agree with some of it. If a charts worked that many times before, I would buy into it, sure. But only to .60, then I am cautiously optomistic at that point. Unless volume can get going here.

[JohnnyIrishXM]

Are you kidding look at what the market was then and what it went up to just before it took the dive. We are not talking about a few hundred points but try a few thousand. These people were saying this kind of crap as far back as the beginning of 2006. When unemployment went under 5% they were saying that it is false because many of those jobs were at much lower pay rates. WELL WHAT ARE THOSE JOBS NOW with a unemployment rate at 9.4% (and it will rise again), are those jobs somehow better now. This is my point, if the economy sucked back in 2006 with under 5% unemployment and a growing GDP then it really really REALLY sucks now. I will also tell you this we will not get back to the point, when the MSM was saying the economy just sucked back in 2006 for a very very long time to come. For these same jackasses to do a flip flop with the conditions being far worse then they were back when they first started to say it, is ridiculous. I will bet you the MSM starts to say after the rate gos to 10% and then comes back to 9.4% that we are in a great economy. Lets remember thats is twice as bad unemployment as when they started to say the economy sucks. I bet we are at or above 9.4% unemployment or above for at least another year.

John,what you are saying is true,but i'm talking when Dow and S&P 500 hit historical highs of 14000 and 1500 respectively,i and many others knew then the run was over,but still hoped it would continue to rise on as we now know was an old fashioned bubble or ponzi scheme in housing and investment bonds and CDS's..the problem with this unemployment figure is it hit White collar 100k to 250k jobs the most,not blue collar as in past recessions.Hell it wiped out wall street as we know it,because no new 401k money (which has and will continue to prop up the markets)was coming in to sustain the upward slide..Unemployment is actually around 14% now if you take into account all that are not counted because they exhausted insurance and took 2 part time jobs to get by.

P.S.the bottm hit IMHO in march and if your noty in soon you will miss 25% gain by next year,Feb.
You already missed 27%gain,but it takes more to get back to March 07 numbers.

[relmor2003]

My wave count, posted in April or May I think, has wave 1 from .17 cents to .63 cents. So to be out of wave 2, correction wave, would require a break of .63(and it usually is occupied by at least a 33% up move from the previous high), which would take us to the .80 to $1 area. So if it goes to .67 and reverses, I would have to reevaluate the wave count, and either immediately give credance to the break out, and buy in on it, or call it a false breakout, still in wave 2, and a big pullback would be due. Why penny stocks and elliot wave theory is hard here, too easy to give false counts. See, if it goes to .64, do you redo your count? Call it a blow off failed break out? Start charting to the next upleg? Why elliot wave is more usefull medium to long term, and as a tool in retrospect of information. For instance , if it goes to .64, and back down to .50, were not in a new wave. If it goes from .70 to .60, are we in a new wave? Even though the usually 33% up move wasnt there? Thats the major problem with it. Hard to short term trade on.

[Hopeful]

I am not bragging just very excited and thought id share! This is my first major investment and I am up 308.4%, take that mutual fund advisor!

[JohnnyIrishXM]

My wave count, posted in April or May I think, has wave 1 from .17 cents to .63 cents. So to be out of wave 2, correction wave, would require a break of .63(and it usually is occupied by at least a 33% up move from the previous high), which would take us to the .80 to $1 area. So if it goes to .67 and reverses, I would have to reevaluate the wave count, and either immediately give credance to the break out, and buy in on it, or call it a false breakout, still in wave 2, and a big pullback would be due. Why penny stocks and elliot wave theory is hard here, too easy to give false counts. See, if it goes to .64, do you redo your count? Call it a blow off failed break out? Start charting to the next upleg? Why elliot wave is more usefull medium to long term, and as a tool in retrospect of information. For instance , if it goes to .64, and back down to .50, were not in a new wave. If it goes from .70 to .60, are we in a new wave? Even though the usually 33% up move wasnt there? Thats the major problem with it. Hard to short term trade on.

good stuff thanks relmor,i remember yor wave post back then..

[candleman]

I am not bragging just very excited and thought id share! This is my first major investment and I am up 308.4%, take that mutual fund advisor!

Hopeful, that is just excellent. You should be very proud of the choice to buy into this stock. I think you said earlier that you were in your mid twenties. Just imagine how many more wise picks you can make! Some people get very wealthy by making wise choices early in life. Good job man!

[JohnnyIrishXM]

I am not bragging just very excited and thought id share! This is my first major investment and I am up 308.4%, take that mutual fund advisor!

Great job hopefull,but just remember this is probably a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy into a stock like this at this price,.10 to .50 cent range.
So a little experienced advice to you,don't go searching for the next SXM,you probably won't find this perfect storm again,just DYODD on any stock you invest in,it's really not this easy..

[Hopeful]

Hopeful, that is just excellent. You should be very proud of the choice to buy into this stock. I think you said earlier that you were in your mid twenties. Just imagine how many more wise picks you can make! Some people get very wealthy by making wise choices early in life. Good job man!

Thanks Candleman, Let's hope I can make a few more good picks in my life lol!

Thanks Johnny, I will take that good advice! Good Luck!!!