SIRI IntraWEEK Thread 08-03-09

Originally Posted by bdp

But don't they have an entire year to get the sp above a buck before they become delisted? Or did I hear Mel incorrectly? If that is the case, a notice in September means nothing since the sp will be over a dollar in less than a year so long as they follow the current progress.

It's all about perception and the negative spin that goes with any 'threat' of delisting, and reverse split as a remedy to prevent it. All negative and feeds the msm bashing headlines, which drives down the SP. The fact that it is unlikely, doesn't mean much. Uncertainty and POTENTIAL negatives are the enemy of SP...and....unfortunately, we have a boat load of that now, including the msm questioning the viability of subscription radio. It clouds the true value that was revealed in yesterday's earnings and CC. That's why the SP is where it is, and will not soar until this crap is behind us.

Originally Posted by candleman

This delisting thing is really not such a threat.

no i don't believe so either, once they get merger related stuff out of the way and start making money, its going to be lotsa money pouring in. But ive learned here that the big players don't stay around long enough to prop up the stock price, when siri announces profits and shows exactly how much profit it will be then whammo the big fish come in.

The biggest reason right now to invest in siri is the fact they have "spectrum" the spectrum is like land, except you can't move to the desert when it comes to spectrum because its all divided up, sxm has a chunk, that is worth lotsa dough. Spectrum is why MSM wants sxm to fail so the spectrum can be sold cheap, imo.

I want them to succeed and i want my shares back, but i don't have any free cash flow to buy more shares so im giving this swing a try.

Originally Posted by imromo24

don't forget there is probably alot of new investors in siri that don't know about the R/S and the delisting notice coming in september. Thats going to make headlines. It needs to be over .60 to stay over .50 when that happens, again imo, and i know nothing. im not saying they are going to happen, itll just be in the headlines.

Good points. Let's consider, too, that prospectively another $12 billion in clunker credits may be coming--and what could that portend for SIRI on the OEM front?

Seems too that the penny type volatility must be making nimble swing and day traders happy, but dug in position traders and investors are are just patiently holding on, as I am, and monitoring the company's (subs down but other aspects improving) general, gradually increasing performance at fundamental and technical levels. My instinct tells me VERY good days are to come--or at least we longer to very long longs will see the shorts sweat and the short interest ratio decline further as our paper losses continue to shrink.

Originally Posted by PMO

Good points. Let's consider, too, that prospectively another $12 billion in clunker credits may be coming--and what could that portend for SIRI on the OEM front?

Seems too that the penny type volatility must be making nimble swing and day traders happy, but dug in position traders and investors are are just patiently holding on, as I am, and monitoring the company's (subs down but other aspects improving) general, gradually increasing performance at fundamental and technical levels. My instinct tells me VERY good days are to come--or at least we longer to very long longs will see the shorts sweat and the short interest ratio decline further as our paper losses continue to shrink.

you have a link to that $12 BB clunker credits reference?

12BB never!

Hey folks,
Anyone know how much seasonality there is to Sirius? Are the third and forth quarters typically stronger than the first and second? The economy is definitely a factor this year, so seasonality may have nothing to do with it, but I'm trying to get a better idea as to EBITA for the year.

They're at $242 million year to date, with $132 in the second quarter. So even matching the second quarter for the next two puts Sirius at $504 million in EBITA. With Cash for Clunkers, general auto turnaround, waning recession, and new products, could $600 million be realistic? One thing to consider is SAC going up as sales go up, so that will eat into the EBITA.

What are your thoughts? Thanks in advance...

Originally Posted by Brad

Hey folks,
Anyone know how much seasonality there is to Sirius? Are the third and forth quarters typically stronger than the first and second? The economy is definitely a factor this year, so seasonality may have nothing to do with it, but I'm trying to get a better idea as to EBITA for the year.

They're at $242 million year to date, with $132 in the second quarter. So even matching the second quarter for the next two puts Sirius at $504 million in EBITA. With Cash for Clunkers, general auto turnaround, waning recession, and new products, could $600 million be realistic? One thing to consider is SAC going up as sales go up, so that will eat into the EBITA.

What are your thoughts? Thanks in advance...

its totally seasonal. i think tyler broke it down somewhere. i wish i could remember if it was in a post or an article. maybe someone who remembers can paste his Q breadown here.

It's always nice to have one of your owners saying good things about you!

By Nat Worden
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Greg Maffei, chief executive of Liberty Media Corp., said Friday that Sirius XM Radio Inc. (SIRI) has hit bottom and is poised for a rebound.
"You'd be hard-pressed to find a media company out there that is growing at the rate [Sirius] is growing," Maffei said on a conference call with analysts following Liberty's second-quarter earnings release.
Liberty lent Sirius $530 million for a 40% stake in February as satellite radio company run by Mel Karmazin was teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. Sirius has suffered under the weight of a heavy debt load left over from the merger between Sirius and XM, which closed last fall.
Sirius reported Thursday that its second-quarter loss widened as the satellite-radio company reported $132 million in charges, while its subscriber count slipped and churn rose slightly in a sign of economic weakness, particularly in the auto business where the company gains the majority of its new subscribers.
Its revenue more than doubled to $590.8 million, but factoring out the effects of the merger, the company's revenue grew 1.1%.
On a show of confidence, Sirius boosted its outlook to $400 million in adjusted income from operations this year, up from a May forecast of $350 million.
"We're convinced [the company has hit bottom]," Maffei said. "The [second-quarter] results seem to demonstrate that."
He said that while bankruptcy seemed like a possibility for Sirius in February, such talk is now a distant memory for the company.
"We're talking now about how much this equity is worth," Maffei said. "I think this is a great business."

-By Nat Worden, Dow Jones Newswires; (212) 416-2472; nat.worden@dowjones.com

Maffei's comments are great. Good pickup Candleman.

Sirius closes at .51, opens at .53, closes at .51 etc... What do you think?