Market Watch for the week 8/3/2009

[bassmaster]

`DR dave, please post a WEEKLY chart of QASP with some standard indicators. what do you think of that hammer after the downtrend? any other t/a opinions please

OBV, ACCUM, CMF increasing

[Dr. Dave]

First the daily - previously, I didn't have a feel for where it was going to head when it first came up. Before I had a 150 e/sma on it, to mimick a 30 week one... and it appeared to have sprung off of it. The 30 week is what one of the old timey traders used, who had a record of not getting beat by the market - he said all stocks go thru these phases, so he'd cut out when the 30 week would move down, and prices below, wait for it to flatline, then after it moved up, and prices were above, he'd go long (not sure if he waited for a retest) - that's one of the things I have been looking at on the big boards. But then, I thought - who the f**k would be using that in the penny world? No one ever talks about it on the big boards - this is an ultralong strategy that no one talks about. Though, I do see some instances of a spring off from time to time.



Then I figured for these pennies, I should just be looking more at support/resistance, price and volume. So I had made a new style stripped it and became fearful of the symmetrical pattern shown by the dashed lines. I was afraid after the bounce that it would form kind of a head and shoulders top, and the decision would be, whether it crossed 0.10, since that has the most hits on the weekly and is a round number. It took a little longer than expected if it went that route, but it did it, and congrats to those who had patience to pick it up before the rebound. Normally, I'd still expect it to hug the line for a second chance, but with volume like that... I don't give it a high probability of hitting that level for a while.

The other thing I thought was that a triangle pattern had formed, and though I didn't know of the stock then, the chart showed a breakdown had broken down - the volume didn't support it, but if you draw as many triangles as I have, you see a lot of times, you get a retest, and it did retest around three times between july 2 and 21. That would also bring us into the danger zone of making that symmetrical pattern. But, again, with the spring off the 0.10 line today, I wouldn't sweat it going below, at least not in the near future.

[Dr. Dave]

Now on the weekly, you can see all the hits on 0.10 - of course, its a round number, and also where you would expect more hits due to the shape of the curve, but psychologically, people would trade off of it.

I've quickened my indicators, since they never made sense when looking at pennies - so while I don't take them as seriously as I would for AAPL or QQQQ - I think by cutting the time frames in half, there is a decent correlation to past price, and we may have hit an oversold area (top indicators), and the buying pressure is in your guy's favor (I'm invested to my personal limit on pennies, so I didn't try to get in this one - was asleep anyway).

I noticed the fibonacci's don't mean much for this stock - other stocks are attracted to them like moths to a flame.

Also - after looking at more and more of these charts - if the overall trend is down, I don't think its good to buy even if it looks like a rally - see the disbelief area on the left - only after a flatline appears do I feel comfortable going long - as usual, its just me, and I do less of the news searching you folks do.

Overall, I still think support/resistance - in its various forms, price action and volume speak the most for these guys over indicators, and it was a really good rally off the line today. I'd give it a thumbs up especially under/around the 0.15 level.

[Dr. Dave]

Oh yeah - I do agree with you that OBV, etc. are better indicators for these, and I found shortening the time frames gives a better correlation. We need to forward test the periods though on other stocks that share similar features.

I went to BJJ tonight, really hot, haven't been training much, kind of have a headache. See you guys manana.

[Dr. Dave]

I still call it "KWASP" in my head and it reminds me of that 80's metal band.

[Dr. Dave]

In reverse of QASP - remember the housing market- it made its self fulfilling prophecy - I shoulda waited another day on my LEN trade instead of closing out. I'd be rico suave.

Which way will it go? - oh, by the way, materials is still a leading sector - so where there are materials, there must be a way to move them - I'm not sayin', just sayin'

Also, small caps did lead today.

[Dr. Dave]

oh yeah - bass - the candle (hammer) looking good so far, but it won't print till friday.

[dread]

First off, thanks Dr. D, for the charts!!!

Nice wheels there Tony!!! I LIKE IT!!

Hey Bill!! Yeah I sent an email to you last night, if you can find it, good luck!! Just a screen shot of my trade on FRNTQ.

Thanks Ray, for the response last night, I freaked on BS news on BEHL, threw down $800 at .08, so I hold a small position now.

OK, BDI stats

Here is how the various Baltic Exchange shipping indices fared for the week ending 31 July.

* Baltic Dry Index (BDI): +0.1%
* Baltic Capesize Index (BCI): +4.2%
* Baltic Panamax Index (BPI): -9.7%
* Baltic Supramax Index (BSI): -0.4%
* Baltic Handysize Index (BHSI): +0.9%
* Baltic Dirty Tanker (BDTI): -1.3%
* Baltic Clean Tanker (BCTI): +4.7%

Here are the results of the corresponding stock indices, courtesy of Capital Link Shipping:

* CL Dry Bulk Index: -1.3%
* CL Tanker Index: -1.3%

For the week, it looks like all of the action was in the Panamax class of bulk freighters. Spot dirty tankers continue to struggle at break even rates or a little worse. Maritime stocks slid for the week in contrast to the overall market.
http://www.wikinvest.com/wikinvest/a...tml&comments=0

Late last night news broke on TRMPQ, it might be one to keep an eye on.

FRNTQ- pissed me off again, only got a partial fill at close the other day at .3110 for a measle 333 shares. I am going to exit this one soon.

Good luck SIRI owners!!! I am watching to see what happens.

Have a good day today LOL!! Time to crash!!!

[bassmaster]

dr dave. i am very impressed. you are a genius. your T/A is 2nd to none. i think i need to put you on the payroll.LOL.

ok, so now i have a plan. if it goes below .01 i am gone and will rebuy if and only if positive candlesticks follow.

i have my eye on on different targets. . 025, .030. and .035
once it hits .025 i will sell if it drops below.
same with the .030 and .035 markers. ---kind of like a manual trailing stop.

if it breaks .035 then .04 is next target... this particular stock seems to love the half penny increments.

these targets are only for a trailing stop and they are not my sell targets.

so if we get a high of the week close on friday . i think the timing would be right for a heater. a confirmation would be needed next friday and there would still be plenty of room to fly.

dr dave, headache? did you let someone catch you in a triangle choke? LOL, JK...thank you again, have a good night.

[bassmaster]

Hey guys first time posting been reading here for a month or two. I figured it was time I joined in on the conversation. I am invested in BCLE BEHL EVFL MGLG SPNG and IFSL. I am very happy with my current positions except for IFSL. I think there are some others here that hold IFSL as well. I have come to the conclusion tonight that this company is a SCAM. Today they announced on their website a marketing agreement with Bracknell Shore LLC http://www.idealfsi.com/?p=85 The only way I got their website was from the spoke (as you guys like to say) as the company didnt show up on google search (the domain came up as being registered in April 2009 i believe. One guy posted the link to bracknell and the ifsl websites news feed, a "basher" said it was a scam and posted a "photoshopped" link, and then another guy called the basher out for altering the website himself. I figured all was good since the basher was called out for being wrong. (you guys should check all this out on the spoke they are all in the past 50 posts). I decided to do a bit of DD myself on the Bracknell company since I could not find it on google and the "photoshopped" link was pretty interactive (seems like you would need to own the site in order to do what the basher did.) I contacted the Bracknell group from the number on their site and it directed me to the membershipcare/ideal financial solutions automated teller. I got on the phone with an operator/customer service rep. I told him that i was trying to connect to the bracknell company and he sounded confused and as if someone in the background was telling him what to say. I said "you are the membershipcare or something?" and he did not give me a straight answer. i told him i dialed the bracknell phone number and he again did not know what to say. He gave me some other number to call 800 230 4043 ext. 718 but i asked "so you are membershipcare company? what is membershipcare?" and then he asked me for MY PHONE # ?! i got scared and didnt give it to him then i think he knew i was figuring out some BS going on and he said for me to hold without asking. I then hung up.

So...... I hope that all makes some sense to you guys in here because I wanted to get your opinions especially those who are invested in IFSL. I trust you guys much more than those on the spoke and i value your opinions much more. What I think is going on is their are a few guys working on the spoke that are from ideal financial solutions and are putting on a show to cover up this scam or whatever IFSL is which i am unsure of. I wanted to wait for a PR about a share buyback before removing most of my shares at my .0021 buy price, but now I am contemplating getting out first thing tomorrow?

I do not want to argue this over at the spoke because I am afraid they will shut down the company or something and i will lose all my money before i can sell my shares i they find out people are catching on.

Sorry that this is the topic of my first post, but I will join in on normal convo once we figure this out. Thanks in advance for your help! look forward to interacting more with you guys/ladies here.

Let me know what you think...i'm scared

sorry i didnt respond to you earlier. sure its possible its a scam. i think shots or trippin was the one who brought it here. then he got impatient and worried and sold at a profit. i got in for a tiny amount. i think im down about 100 bucks. but with that said, just about every stock forum will have its share of bashers , and as long as you feel you did the proper due dilligence and want to exit, that is fine. its actually a good move. you shouldnt be involved with a stock that makes you uncomfortable. thanx for posting your concerns here. you should post more often.