Market Watch for week of July 20, 2009

**Dr. Dave** · 07-22-2009, 11:52 PM

Originally Posted by Sean

it seems like they started to get serious in march of this year and have posted a PR at least once a month (2x last month) i guess i'll hope it consolidates and wait for a PR hopefully in 2-4 weeks

What was your original plan?

Remember stocks go up and down. This is a volatile one. The first day it was mentioned, I think I looked at the chart and it was up 150%. So taking note on that, I can see it easily see it being down 75% one day, and up 90% the next. So for a longer term play, you can't exactly set a 8% stop loss, like you would if you were trading MSFT. That being said, match the amount you put in with the volatility you expect, or match the volatility of the stock to the amount you feel you wish to trade.

I like today's candle better for it than yesterdays. It's low was on a round number 0.001 - looks like people are buying if it gets there... takes more days to tell.

Anyway, you don't ignore it. Make a plan for what happens tomorrow. If it shoots past 0.002, what will you do? Take your profits? Risk holding it over night and being down again for the glory of a larger profit? Also, if it drops lower than 0.001, would you have enough to make it worth cashing out, or is it better at that point to ride it out. ie. if it goes dormant for a while, expect a price near where it was on the 10-13th.

Or do your homework and see if you think this company is worth holding onto, and how much money you are willing to keep in there for a while to see it through (and perhaps never recover). Then also make a plan for when to exit.

Hopefully you'll get a couple of stocks that do both good and bad. That way you can adjust your game accordingly, as I think a string of trades gone sour for new people immediately drive them out of the game and a string of good ones make them overconfident and help build initial risky habits.

**billhart22** · 07-22-2009, 11:56 PM

Originally Posted by Dr. Dave

What was your original plan?

Remember stocks go up and down. This is a volatile one. The first day it was mentioned, I think I looked at the chart and it was up 150%. So taking note on that, I can see it easily see it being down 75% one day, and up 90% the next. So for a longer term play, you can't exactly set a 8% stop loss, like you would if you were trading MSFT. That being said, match the amount you put in with the volatility you expect, or match the volatility of the stock to the amount you feel you wish to trade.

I like today's candle better for it than yesterdays. It's low was on a round number 0.001 - looks like people are buying if it gets there... takes more days to tell.

Anyway, you don't ignore it. Make a plan for what happens tomorrow. If it shoots past 0.002, what will you do? Take your profits? Risk holding it over night and being down again for the glory of a larger profit? Also, if it drops lower than 0.001, would you have enough to make it worth cashing out, or is it better at that point to ride it out. ie. if it goes dormant for a while, expect a price near where it was on the 10-13th.

Or do your homework and see if you think this company is worth holding onto, and how much money you are willing to keep in there for a while to see it through (and perhaps never recover). Then also make a plan for when to exit.

Hopefully you'll get a couple of stocks that do both good and bad. That way you can adjust your game accordingly, as I think a string of trades gone sour for new people immediately drive them out of the game and a string of good ones make them overconfident and help build initial risky habits.

I wish we could "Frame" that advice. One of the best posts of the year!

**atmgeek1** · 07-23-2009, 12:00 AM

Originally Posted by billhart22

They were watching the stock price and needed a boost, so this one is intended to hold up the fort until production numbers. It was really encouraging to hear this after I sold a bunch of my MGLG yesterday. At least I didn't have to rebuy back in today.

I am at .0003, so there is no need for me to chase this even though it may go up a ton. I can take what I cashed out yesterday and put it in to something else. If I bought more now it would bring my average up. 760K isn't many shares, but it is better than a sharp stick in the eye.

I think you did the right thing. Your sittin' pretty with your free shares. I was out of the office today when the pr hit and the sp went up. I like watching sp's rise and I didn't get to see that today, but sometimes I actually have to do some real work. People freak out when the atm machine isn't working, and I mean freak out!!! Isn't there another machine on the next corner,lol. The ironic thing is the problem is usually operator error, thus I have a job!!!

**billhart22** · 07-23-2009, 12:14 AM

Originally Posted by atmgeek1

I think you did the right thing. Your sittin' pretty with your free shares. I was out of the office today when the pr hit and the sp went up. I like watching sp's rise and I didn't get to see that today, but sometimes I actually have to do some real work. People freak out when the atm machine isn't working, and I mean freak out!!! Isn't there another machine on the next corner,lol. The ironic thing is the problem is usually operator error, thus I have a job!!!

This is no kidding...I know guys that have the ability to read (which is rare these days) that have gone down to Home Depot and bought a book on how to do something and have made a career out of it.

Being able to re-invent one's self is one of the greatest attributes to any person.

I can imagine that when you finish repairing a machine that people are thanking you and you are a hero.

It is the same with me when I fix a hole in somebody's drywall, lol.

The old saying, "Are you a professional?", and you answer, "Yes, I get paid for it don't I?"

It actually is a hard process, whether I am building a wine cellar, finishing a basement or whatever, but I love the more simple jobs. I can make more money on simple jobs.

I can turn a sheet of drywall into 5K and it costs 8.00 with materials included.

If I build or remodel a structure, then the physical effort is much more and pays less, but still is great, but the bidding, logistics and other factors run my profit down.

Being a square guy (honest), can make an independent guy a lot of money. I can imagine that people really love you when they can get access to their money.

When I was 27, the ATM would keep my card and destroy it, lol. Times have changed.

**just sirius** · 07-23-2009, 01:00 AM

Bill

off-topic...Our boy was in prime form tonight...Spoke for 30+ minutes...said absolutely nothing...Didn't know whether to laugh or cry!

Loved the line...I have the best healthcare in the world...but healthcare in our country sucks(I kinda changed it alittle bit)!

True story- Took my wife to the beach this weekend...My 20 yr old daughter and future son-in-law(damnitt) met us down there...They were about 1 hour late...Daughter said they got stuck in the sand...but 6 guys spent about 45 minutes digging them out! That night at dinner...my daughter said...dad...those are the guys that helped get us un-stuck. I had our waitress send a round of beer over to them(thats what they were drinking)...they came over and thanked me...they noticed my daughter...and figured out why I bought them the round...They said that it was nothing...and they just hoped that someone would help out there wives, sisters, or mothers if they needed it while they were deployed. After talking to them...they were on leave from Ft Hood...all had been to Iraq at least once... I bought them another round and they again came over and thanked me...I told them...it was the least that I could do since they are putting their lives on the line for me and my family.

to all the parents out there who have a loved one in the military...You raised them right...they are making you and all of us proud!!!

Thank you

**just sirius** · 07-23-2009, 01:03 AM

Bill

Thanks again for priming the pump. But next time...give me alittle more warning...I want to load up before you exit next time!hahahahaha

Can vegetarians eat Salmon? Sounds kind of fishy too me!!!funny...laughter!

Sounds like selectivevegetarianism too me!

**dread** · 07-23-2009, 01:18 AM

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com...acre-bill.html

**Dr. Dave** · 07-23-2009, 03:37 AM

Out of curiosity, any IBD'ers in here?

**Dr. Dave** · 07-23-2009, 03:50 AM

NITE had a 40%+ growth in EPS this quarter. I wonder why?
I wonder if I should join them.

**Dr. Dave** · 07-23-2009, 04:46 AM

reminder to myself - fslr - 150 to 180, july 30 earnings

I should hit the sack.

Market Watch for week of July 20, 2009

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I am going to post this here besides the politics thread.