Market Watch for week of 6/15/2009

[bassmaster]

copy the chart with alt printscrn then windows start...then run...put in mspaint.exe hit run button....then paste...then save to desktop then post on snapfish.com and then post the link

If you want to crop it, then use photoshop or other editing software.

It is a major pain in the ass, but that is how it is done. You get faster with a little practice though, lol!

i forgot to tell you i have a MAC. it should be easier but ive never tried this before. bleh. another test run for pics here sc.png

[bassmaster]

ok that worked.. it was easier than snapfish..now that was just a test run..bill can tell me if the chart is readable?

[billhart22]

ok that worked.. it was easier than snapfish..now that was just a test run..bill can tell me if the chart is readable?

Ya, it looks good when you click on the picture and it expands! Be sure and add that comment to your pics! Good job, Bass!

Bill

[dread]

OK, for all the newbies out there!!!

I will try and make this as dry and neutral as possible

Alright, first of all, trade in sectors you understand, whether it be technology or, consumer cyclical. Also, if you are better at one thing over another, use your talents to your advantage. Do not allow anyone to influence what you know as fact!!!!

Second of all, don't follow the crowd, be your own trader, cherry pick what makes sense to you as an individual. Then implement your plans, and strategy as you see fit.

It is so important to stick to your plan, and don't waver at all!!!

For example: If you buy 10k shares of said company, then the stock goes up 15% 20% I personally recommend setting up a stop loss order. Either by % or price, depending on the stock and how bad the manipulation is. But lock in profits, and start over, or move on!!
(This is one of my personal opinions above, build your own strategy)

Three, if you don't understand what you are looking at, don't be afraid to ask, in this forum, or other forums but, you need to verify the information yourself.

In my humble opinion, Ray, Bill, Tony, Trips, and many others here at siriusbuzz, mean well, and will help you out as much as possible. It is so important to develop your own strategy and again, cherry pick what you understand and know.

Fourth, there are many different tools out there that you can access for free.
As Tony has said in the past, And I completely agree with him, (keep it simple stupid).
My thoughts are: ( If it isn't broken, don't fix it).

I will keep the links lite here, and not load up and overwhelm anyone that is new!!!

These are macro tools that I reference, you may feel more comfortable starting from the bottom up, but I start at the top and widell my way down.
I want others to share their tools and strategies also, so please guys jump in and throw in your knowledge!!!

http://www.wikinvest.com/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index

Ah!! yes!! The BDI, good stuff here, if you don't read and understand the BDI, nothing personal, but you should not be trading period. Also watching and trading the shipping stocks is loads of fun!! The important thing about the BDI, it does not lie, nor can any one government control or manipulate, or seize control over it!! When all else fails, revert to the BDI!!! (unless there is a nuclear war, then nothing will matter).

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Evix

The VIX is a monster all in its own, here is the wiki, read it too!!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIX

I will say this!! Don't always trust the WIKI pages, they can be manipulated, and I am not sure on, how often they are policed for factual information!!!! READERS BEWARE!!!

Volume is very important, not only when it involves individual stocks, but right now in the market as a whole!!!

http://finance.yahoo.com/advances

http://www.level2stockquotes.com/level-ii-quotes.html

Level 2, is good stuff for the micro trader, and if you want to watch manipulation.

My advice: Keep an eye on the macro as you focus on the micro. In other words, keep an open mind and do not channel yourself into a trap. Just be nimble, and not to aggressive, but don't let anything scare you away. Do your do diligence

OK, I am done for now, whether you are macro, or more finite, I hope this helps, anyone else, please feel free to jump in and share your points, and strategies for the newbies!!!

Some of us can look at one thing from 10 different points of view, others can not.

Please develop your own plan, and be an individualist HA, HA, HA!!!
Don't chase the collectivists off of the cliff!!!!

WOW, all that time in the garage this weekend!!! I think you guys have me beat!!

Oh, ya, for those out there that want to understand the cycological aspects of trading read: (Animal Spirits). I for one, have not read the book, no need for me personally.
Also, ...... man I hate to bring this up, but you have to follow politics very closely right now. I HATE politics!! But I am left with no choice, but to follow this train wreck right now, God knows for how long!!!

Anyway, when in doubt, just ask someone here on siriusbuzz, and if we know, we will try and help you out!!!

Good luck out there!!!

My personal sentiment right now: Short America, long foreign stocks.

[bassmaster]

ok here goes my interpretation of the candlestick chart of MGLG for the past couple of weeks. i bought the stock on june 8th (@$.0003) on the 4th consecutive green candlestick. the fifth green the next day confirmed the market had bottomed and signaled a buy. on june 10th and 11th you can see the big gains made which led to the hanging man (which is a a bearish reversal pattern) on friday the 12th. that friday EVERYONE was expecting a PR on monday the 15th where we gapped up in the morning to resistance at .0027. the PR never came so there was a huge sell off (which was signaled by the heavy selling pressure on friday) and ended up as being a headfake or a failed breakout. the next day we had a spinning top (after a long red candle it indicates weakness among the bears) on some heavy volume. it was a very bloody war between the bears and bulls. on wednesday the battle continued and ended with a green doji cross(more tug of war). on thursday june 17th we had a green candle with a long lower shadow, during a a bearish phase (which was last week with all the heavy selling pressure during most of the trading day) it indicates a trend reversal. it appears the bulls may win the battle. we couldnt get a green candle on friday for a 4th consecutive day but the low was higher then previous lows for the week which is confirming an uptrend. we also had a gap up to resistance @.002 then retraced to .0015 and closed @ .0017. the past week was a full blown war with heavy selling pressure early and heavy buying pressure very late in sessions. nobody wanted to be left out on any possible A.M. news release. we may continue the same pattern on monday with a gap up early sell off then late buys so be ready for some more wild rides. as long as the uptrend will continue i will be happy. but id prefer breaking resistance during intraday trading. a positive PR when issued will send this pig flying!!!!!!

it appears .002 is the 1st resistance marker hopefully we can cross that on monday during intraday trading. next resistance is .0023 then .0027 then .0033.... i am setting sells @ a couple of ticks below support levels of .0013 and .0010 just in case my reads are wrong. im not losing all my profits but i do think we have a wonderful week/s ahead of us.

Bill, magician, shots, anyone please chime in with some technicals. and i take constructive criticism so if anyone disagrees with my reads please explain.

this is all MY OPINION, IM A PRO POKER PLAYER, NOT A PRO STOCK ANALYST. DYODD

[bassmaster]

oh heres the chart...LOL sc.jpg

[bassmaster]

if anyone has trouble viewing the chart. i just used the one from ihub. but i only analyzed the candlesticks so you can use any look at a candlestick chart from anywhere as long as its covering the past few weeks.

P>S>

I FORGOT TO MENTION.....im soo retarded , it appears the handle has formed on the cup/handle chart and we are in a positive news cycle so all we need is a primer for this to explode!!!!!! and if i missed anything please add.

again all my own opinion, DYODD ..

[billhart22]

O.K., here we go.....Let's first look at the RSI indicator. Looking at it since May 11th it shows that the stock has been overbought twice since then (the green peaks. MGLG was above 70 on the RSI (Relative Strength Index). In between the two peaks, it actually was below 50 which is the sell point on a stock and then it rose again. Currently it is at 62.81 with a slight turn down, right there at the end. So this is something that we have to keep an eye on, because if it goes down and hits 50, it would be the time to cash out, but before coming to that conclusion, we will have to check other indicators.

Next, let's move to the Parabolic SAR...that is the indicator with the little red dots. What they are basically all about are buying and selling points. On a long stock, which is the opposite side of shorting a stock, if the dots are below the candles that gives a buy sign. If the dots are above the candles then it is a sell sign. This indicator is derived from an extremely complex formula and should be used in conjunction with the MACD and the ADX, because the guy that invented the Parabolic SAR also created the two other indicators. As you can see on this chart the Parabolic SAR dots are below the candles currently which is a buy sign. SAR stands for stop and reversal. It is specifically for determining when to buy and sell. That is its sole purpose. When the dots tough the candle sticks it is then a reversal and a buy or sell sign.

Now let's take a look at the EMA (30). This is different than the SMA (30), but it is better. Currently the EMA is below the candle sticks, so that is a good thing.

The Bollinger bands are very wide right now because of high volatility during this charted time period and will not start closing until there is some consolidation.

Next let's look at the MACD. There are a couple of things that I can see here. First of all, the red line below the black line is a good thing, that is bullish (the red line above the black is bearish). In addition, the lines are pointing up rather steeply. that is a good sign. The bad part is that if you look at the black and red line at this particular time, they are starting to converge upon each other. If you look at the blue histogram, you will see that it is narrowing down, which suggests a trend ending.

Now lets take a look at the ADX. With this indicator the green line is positive divergence and the red is negative divergence and the black line is the actual ADX. The scale goes from 0 to 100 with 50 being the middle. What to watch here is that the red line should be below the green line to be bullish and it is. Notice at the very end that the red and green and come closer together and they are just slightly moving away from each other. These two factors bring me to the conclusion to hold.

If you look at the last candlestick, you will see that it is red. The top of the candlestick on a red one or black one is where that session opened and the bottom of the thick part is where it closed. The skinny little shadow line is how low it went during the day. That red candle is a keep your eyes open sign, especially when you contrast it with the volume (down at the bottom of the candle chart). The volume is relatively low compared to previous days.

When I put all of these factors together, I would say that Monday is a "Hold" Day and maybe a time to put "Stops" in. I am figuring the stops about .0013 for enough to cover my initial investment and let the rest ride. I haven't calculated what I need to do yet..that is just a gut feeling at the moment.


It is totally a "HOLD" day in my eyes with this chart. It is important to keep your eyes on the RSI also. This is a make or break day. We don't know which direction this is going to probably go. This is at the time length of this particular chart.

Any comments or questions are welcome. On the next chart that I do on BCLE, I will not give full explanations again, so study them here. As always, DYODD.

Thanks,

Bill

[ray]

(bcnd)
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards...?board_id=7216

Bill, have a look , could be money on the ground...looking for a home in your wallet...lol
happy fathers day ,hope the girls have called..!!!

[billhart22]

If you are not familiar with the indicators, check the MGLG chart above first, because I explained them there. This way I won't have to type so much again..thanks.. Bill

Ok the RSI is low, below 50, so technically it is not a good time to buy, however, it has been coming back up except for Friday when we got a red candle and it slightly points down at the very end. So let's put that indicator on hold for a bit.

The Parabolic SAR is below the candlesticks which shows a buy sign. That is what the Parabolic SAR is all about.

The Bollinger bands are converging fast again, because the stock is stabilizing again and there isn't as much volatility. We are below the 30 EMA, so this is a don't buy yet sign.

The volume was relatively negatively low on Friday and in conjunction with the red candle tells me that the stock could go either way.

The MACD, however, is positive and the histogram is showing an uptrend.

The ADX just crossed over bullish, so that is a good thing.

All in all, I personally wouldn't let the volume and the RSI scare me off at this point, but technically, this is a "HOLD" and a "BUY". 4 of the 6 indicators are positive. Knowing the stock as I do, I wouldn't let it hold me back And knowing the company and what it is all about would more than likely make me buy the stock.

Just keep an eye on the price as it comes out of the gate tomorrow morning and find a good entry point if you are going to buy it.

Any questions or comments...please do...DYODD

Thanks,

Bill