SIRI Intraday Thread Wednesday June 17th 2009:

[bdp]

Hello all. Been a while. I feel a bit like a fair weather friend, but I have been busy the last several weeks accumulating more Sirius stock. It has been very much like tip toeing through a minefield, but this morning I made the decision to pull the trigger and unload all the rest of my positions and grab as much Sirius as I could for under .34. Now the question is, can I resist greed and continue long, or should I look for an opportunity to bail out when Sirius hits .60 and realize that the stock will most likely be pounced upon and forced back to .34 where it will sit and wait the reverse split? Although I have increased my position considerably, I am worn out from day trading this stock. Does anyone have any real opinion on this? All dreaming aside, I can not imagine that anything less than hard proof that Sirius is turning a profit will boost the SP over a buck. There will be the squelching of all the negative press and a concrete rise in the SP can no longer be challenged. I do think the iphone application will help in the very short run, but still, it feels more like buying lottery tickets on a hunch of that inevitable impending big win.

[xitvp]

bdp....Obviously do your own DD, but I can't blame anyone for being pessimistic regarding this stock and wanting to bail and take their profits. That said, I am not sure why a bunch of people are assuming this will retrace back to the .30's. If you factor in a rebounding economy along with the troubles terrestrial radio is currently facing and add in the synergies SIRIUS XM is now seeing, I have the feeling this is the start of the potential many of us have been waiting for. They are launching 2 new satellites and there is the Liberty Media situation that anyone can see will result in some form of satellite partnership. This comapny has a bright future. The reason why it's such a frustrating stock is becuase of the amount of potential.

I think the Iphone app will add new subscribers without a doubt. I may buy an Iphone just so I can have Sirius anywhere. I'm personally staying in until $1.00, then I re-evaluate.

I don't know if anyone else though of this angle, and it's just a wild theory, but think about this:

1. Ba Ba Booey's First pitch - People were talking about that EVERYWHERE about 2 weeks ago. Great publicity for Sirius.

2. Howard goes on Letterman, knocks Leno last week - A lot of chatter about that. Great publicity for Sirius.

3. Artie goes on the Joe Buck show and causes mucho controversy yesterday - That is the talk of the town. Great publicity for Sirius.

4. Tomorrow - Sirius Iphone App launched..........

I Wonder if a lot of these things were thought out to get people talking about what's happening on Satellite Radio and create some buzz then launch the App and get people wanting to tune in....Again, just a theory.

[trippingthespeculatingpos]

theory or not the publicity has been good. i loved artie on joe buck, funny when u think about it, artie thought hey its hbo i can say whatever i want lol but yet not knowing buck wanted it to be a clean show. man artie went really far too with the language, i loved it.

[SiriusBuzz]

Does anyone have any real opinion on this? All dreaming aside, I can not imagine that anything less than hard proof that Sirius is turning a profit will boost the SP over a buck.

I am not a day trader nor do I have more then 7 years experience in the stock market but, I tend to agree with your thinking if that helps you any. Its going to take some serious profits OR a serious spike in subscribers numbers to show that the company can still grow from their current size to get them over $1.

I am all for them figuring out ways to save and increase profits but, at the same time, they need to show some kind of steady growth. I don't even care if its 100k per quarter, it just has to be sustained. That way, if the revenue makes sense now, it will only make more sense in the future. People say that net sub ads don't matter but that is bullshit and the street knows it. This company needs to show the street that people want the product they are providing.

A company can not win if they consistently hemorrhage their subscribers.

[xitvp]

theory or not the publicity has been good. i loved artie on joe buck, funny when u think about it, artie thought hey its hbo i can say whatever i want lol but yet not knowing buck wanted it to be a clean show. man artie went really far too with the language, i loved it.

Yeah...I was laughing so hard. That was one of the most uncomfortable TV moments I can remember...really funny....He was a bit over the top though.

[Big Ben]

XITUP...great post about the timing. Makes you wonder. I would not be shocked one bit. Especially this Letterman, Lang, Leno, and now Buck. Howard talked about it for most of the first hour today. The wrap up show with Fred sitting in was amazing! I loved the analogy they used with fin with Fred...if you nuge Fred he comes back with a bazooka..so true. Artie also did a few print articles...you got me thinking!

One knock on your post....economy is not recovering we are in a bear market rally. IMVHO, housing big trouble, Fed Ex bad numbers and bad going forward on everything they do, banks still carrying loads of bad debts, credit markets still very tight, Pothash posted bad info, farmers delaying fertilizing crops, market is due for a vicious pull back. I think we are seeing the first cracks in the dam. The only good thing about the pull back is SIRI will not participate. We have been beaten down for so long all the negative is baked in.

[atmgeek1]

XITUP...great post about the timing. Makes you wonder. I would not be shocked one bit. Especially this Letterman, Lang, Leno, and now Buck. Howard talked about it for most of the first hour today. The wrap up show with Fred sitting in was amazing! I loved the analogy they used with fin with Fred...if you nuge Fred he comes back with a bazooka..so true. Artie also did a few print articles...you got me thinking!

One knock on your post....economy is not recovering we are in a bear market rally. IMVHO, housing big trouble, Fed Ex bad numbers and bad going forward on everything they do, banks still carrying loads of bad debts, credit markets still very tight, Pothash posted bad info, farmers delaying fertilizing crops, market is due for a vicious pull back. I think we are seeing the first cracks in the dam. The only good thing about the pull back is SIRI will not participate. We have been beaten down for so long all the negative is baked in.

Xit...great post, I like your thoughts on this.

Big Ben, You are so right when it comes to the economy. I work with the banking world and instead of taking that bailout money for what it was for, they are buying other banks, building new branches and buying/deploying new equipment. As my thread name says I work specifically with atm machines and we are booked solid for months and have been working unlimited OT since March. This "recovery" IMO is short lived and the banks are going to f*ck it up again. We would have been better off wout bailouts to the banks because they did not learn the lesson. Sirixm will be slightly affectd by the pull back because most of the people who cancelled because of thier discretionary income loss are already gone and have not returned yet.

[atmgeek1]

but lets hope I'm wrong, too many good people are hurting and this was caused by no fault of thier own, just dumb, greedy CEO's

[bdp]

I agree about the pullback. I can't remember who said it, but it was one of those brainy analyst dorks that said back in March to expect a sustained rally into June ending with a big pullback as investors realize big profits and the market must correct for stocks considerably overshooting their value. A good indicator for me was the Baltic Dry Index steady increase (for dry bulk shipping rates) running adverse to my shipping stock prices. This sent up a red flag for me to begin an exodus from this sector and everything else associated with it. That is why I have been dumping all my positions in everything but Sirius. It has no real association. As crappy as it has been, Sirius is probably a safer bet right now. How safe? Look at the history of the SP. A more appropriate term is probably "predictable". Sirius has never ceased to let me down. Like clockwork. As sure as it is now on the way up, it will drop like a rock and oscillate again for another few weeks until the 2Q reports are out. If 2Q is favorable, well then I believe we may see an elevated floor in the SP. The iphone app is most likely, at best, just a tickler IMVHO.

[bdp]

BTW, by history I obviously mean the history since the .05 BK rumor price. Not before.