Weekly OFF TOPIC THREAD:May 4th -10th 2009

[SiriusBuzz]

That is a huge trust issue...
Who brought up the manipulation in the stock first(besides me)...
Brandon did. he went to bat, and battled the banks, the company, and others to let it be known this stock is not trading even to a NORMAL degree of manipulation. The manipulation in this stock runs to the media(fake bk article, WSJ fluff piece day before we lost 50 percent stock value(from the PM high)... too many examples to mention....

All this being said, Im not bashing Tyler for how he writes, Its more of what he doesnt write that bothers me, and his timing.

You opinion is your opinion and that is fine.

What about Brandon saying the company would be fine then the next day say they would go bankrupt... which is more dangerous to investors? What about his -2million loss? I am just asking. You could say those things are no big deal but to an investor like me Brandon seems far more dangerous.

[john]

Enemy you know........ John.....
Enemy you know........
Brandon is a sensationalist journalist, he jumps the gun, thats his style. Tyler is conservative to neutral overall in his writing. He did condone the 4 billion in synergies, the biggest reason I bought premerger. We know this was now...
1. A lie.
2. A mass gross overestimation by Tyler, and every analyist who covered this stock. As Tyler always mentions analyist opinions, it has been gross negligence to not mention where these 4 billion of future synergies are coming from? 300 million a satellie.... ok... zero so far... But waiting.. thats the biggest one...
Renegotiating contracts.... so far...
50 million from GM....
100 million in adminstrative savings....
20 million in programming....
Im running out here....
People WHO KNOW THE company better than me, Tyler, Brandon, Newman, Charlies, Homer, you John even, cos....
No one has brought up this huge miscalculation. Whos job is it? no ones...
Whos job would it be more likely to be....
Tyler, who reports analyst opinions as they come out....
No calling out on this topic...
That is a huge trust issue...
Who brought up the manipulation in the stock first(besides me)...
Brandon did. he went to bat, and battled the banks, the company, and others to let it be known this stock is not trading even to a NORMAL degree of manipulation. The manipulation in this stock runs to the media(fake bk article, WSJ fluff piece day before we lost 50 percent stock value(from the PM high)... too many examples to mention....

All this being said, Im not bashing Tyler for how he writes, Its more of what he doesnt write that bothers me, and his timing.

relmor, What are you talking about the synergies are there. If you recall analyst gave different time frames and different amounts to go with those time frames. You will notice that as the time frames got longer out so did the amounts, that is because if they are saving 500 million this year you multiply that by as many years and come to a number of say (7 X 500 million is) 3.5 billion in synergies in 7 years. You did understand that is what they were talking about right. You will also notice not one analst nor Tyler ever gave an estimate that even had them getting any synergies in the first year. That was all suppose to start at soonest in the second year. I believe they already have in less then a year.



P.S. Many analyst with the longer time frames gave even larger sysnergies because of satellite cost one less satellite is 800 to 900 million saved. Not to mention the introduction of the interoperable radio and the savings that would come as they only produce that one radio for both SIRI and XMSR.

[relmor2003]

You opinion is your opinion and that is fine.

What about Brandon saying the company would be fine then the next day say they would go bankrupt... which is more dangerous to investors? What about his -2million loss? I am just asking. You could say those things are no big deal but to an investor like me Brandon seems far more dangerous.

I called brandon out on that if you remember, and if you remember I pretty sure i ripped cos1000 as well. I dont hold my punches, and I feel no one is above reproach. I had made terrible calls myself. Not about bad calls, its about dangerous journalism, or irresponsible journalism. Has brandon been guilty of that, yes. Definately. And when he does, i rip him for it. You have a point.

[TSavery]

Enemy you know........ John.....
Enemy you know........
Brandon is a sensationalist journalist, he jumps the gun, thats his style. Tyler is conservative to neutral overall in his writing. He did condone the 4 billion in synergies, the biggest reason I bought premerger. We know this was now...
1. A lie.
2. A mass gross overestimation by Tyler, and every analyist who covered this stock. As Tyler always mentions analyist opinions, it has been gross negligence to not mention where these 4 billion of future synergies are coming from? 300 million a satellie.... ok... zero so far... But waiting.. thats the biggest one...
Renegotiating contracts.... so far...
50 million from GM....
100 million in adminstrative savings....
20 million in programming....
Im running out here....
People WHO KNOW THE company better than me, Tyler, Brandon, Newman, Charlies, Homer, you John even, cos....
No one has brought up this huge miscalculation. Whos job is it? no ones...
Whos job would it be more likely to be....
Tyler, who reports analyst opinions as they come out....
No calling out on this topic...
That is a huge trust issue...
Who brought up the manipulation in the stock first(besides me)...
Brandon did. he went to bat, and battled the banks, the company, and others to let it be known this stock is not trading even to a NORMAL degree of manipulation. The manipulation in this stock runs to the media(fake bk article, WSJ fluff piece day before we lost 50 percent stock value(from the PM high)... too many examples to mention....

All this being said, Im not bashing Tyler for how he writes, Its more of what he doesnt write that bothers me, and his timing.

Relmor.....

I respect your opinion, but your attack about the synergies is off base. Yes, synergies include things like cost cutting, better contracts, etc. BUT, and this is a big BUT.......They also take into consideration the time value of money. It is the time value of money where the bulk of the synergies will be derived.

What does saving $100 million a year mean over the course of seven years? The $4 billion was not an instantaneous savings, or discuissing pure cost cutting. It is taking into consideration the time value of money.

[john]

First of all, it was disclosed in the very beginning.

What would Tyler be writing about on these websites? The news? I don't know how this analogy totally fits because I don't think its possible to like the NAB and SATRAD at the same time while it is possible to have a simple honest interest in both slacker and sirius.

There are guys who write about mac's and pc's for no other reason then the fact that they know and understand computers, is that really a conflict of interest to be knowledgable and report on news for both sides?



Brandon was Brandon and crfceo was Brandon... what were we supposed to tell you? When Brandon signed on to work with us crfceo was supposed to be quiet but, Brandon could not let that alter ego die which added to our growing frustration with him.



We deffinately talked about it before the other site. So did everyone who covers satellite radio. Like Tyler said, its on orbitcast and the guy who runs a satrad only store also runs a website with a slacker forum.

This isn't about disclosure its about cos1000 not being able to ever handle anything negative about sirius (he is not alone) and THAT IS FINE, just tell it like it is.

We are going to report on the competition because its relevant and if the compeition does something on the eve of a big sirius xm announcement... tough. If we burried that kind of information that would be the kind of thing that should make you call us into question.

Charles, you know full fricking well those things matter weather it is truth they are writing or not matters not people would not come to a site as much if they knew Tyler was also writing for a NAB site. Thats just the way it is.


I dont care if that is true or not, if you have a nut ball conspiracy theorist as a main writer, I want to know. You knew just how people would react to knowing who he really was, that is why you did not tell us. It also would have made those articles put out by him that you talked to relmar2003 about make more sense.

I know cos1000, and I would not say it is because he cant handle negitive things said about SIRIXM, he just wants the motives for articles made totally clear. Not that you guys dont think you did make it totally clear, just not as clear as cos1000 would have liked.



As for me I also like to know about the competition and what they are up to and to be honest it does not bother me about the other site. That is because from reading Tyler I know when he likes something he buys it and gets more involved then most. For god sake thats how he got started with his own blog about SIRI/XMSR at "satellite standard".

[relmor2003]

Relmor.....

I respect your opinion, but your attack about the synergies is off base. Yes, synergies include things like cost cutting, better contracts, etc. BUT, and this is a big BUT.......They also take into consideration the time value of money. It is the time value of money where the bulk of the synergies will be derived.

What does saving $100 million a year mean over the course of seven years? The $4 billion was not an instantaneous savings, or discuissing pure cost cutting. It is taking into consideration the time value of money.

Then go aruge with SiriusXM. They gave there updated synergy savings , ANNOUNCED WELL AFTER THE MERGER, as under 1 billion. So call up Mr. Blalock and argue with him about it. Analyists were wrong, period. SiriusXM(supposedly because they didnt see XM's books) was only off by 50 percent. I think siriusxm had lower estimates, at around 2-3 billion. Once they announced their actual target, NOT ONE WORD from an analist or a journalist on this. Tyler you told me analyists dont know the company like you do. Why I was wrong on my sub count... I estimated a 100k loss to 80k gain. Miller estimated a 60k gain, same as me. Therefore, his opinion is irrelevant. So go ahead and stop writing about them. They were wrong on synergies, and they were wrong on sub estimates. Therefore state before everytime you rewrite up a analyst opinion, please state by the way, this man has no clue what he is talking about. Didnit see that disclaimer. I was confused about parking lot subs.... Its his job to know this, whats his excuse?

Basically....
If you admit analysts dont know as much about the company as you do, why give 4 billion estimate on synergies without a disclaimer....
This is a huge reason every premerger person is buying this stock. But im going to write article after article stating their opinions, when I know they are wrong. They were wrong. Never going to see those 4 billion in synergies. Why? By the time we would, XM would have been LONG SINCE BKED...... LONG SINCE....... PROBABLY BY 2009 THEY WOULD HAVE WENT UNDER. So synergies past that are irrelevant anyway. Synergies in 5 years do nothing for me. 5 years we still wont see 4 billion.

[TSavery]

Relmor....

I am not saying you don't understand this, because I would have no way to know. However, the point you brought up may be something others need clarity about.

Synergies are oft discussed in NPV (Net Present Value)

Net present value (NPV) is defined as the total present value (PV) of a time series of cash flows. It is a standard method for using the time value of money to appraise long-term projects. Used for capital budgeting, and widely throughout economics, it measures the excess or shortfall of cash flows, in present value terms, once financing charges are met.

An example is the Bear Sterns report that discussed synergies and establishing a net present value.

http://siriusbuzz.com/bear-stearns-issues-note.php

Janco is also using the time value of money in their call

http://siriusbuzz.com/janco-upgrades...-synergies.php

I hope this clarifies where the merger synergy nbnumbers come from

[tim wallick]

Quote:
Who brought up the manipulation in the stock first(besides me)...
Brandon did. he went to bat, and battled the banks, the company, and others to let it be known this stock is not trading even to a NORMAL degree of manipulation. The manipulation in this stock runs to the media(fake bk article, WSJ fluff piece day before we lost 50 percent stock value(from the PM high)... too many examples to mention....
when did Brandon, discover this bit of information and make it public I'm just curious as to when this information was being pursued and if it included the fine folks over at Sirius and or xm

thanks Tim

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Last edited by tim wallick; Today at 10:33 AM.

[relmor2003]

Relmor....

I am not saying you don't understand this, because I would have no way to know. However, the point you brought up may be something others need clarity about.

Synergies are oft discussed in NPV (Net Present Value)

Net present value (NPV) is defined as the total present value (PV) of a time series of cash flows. It is a standard method for using the time value of money to appraise long-term projects. Used for capital budgeting, and widely throughout economics, it measures the excess or shortfall of cash flows, in present value terms, once financing charges are met.

An example is the Bear Sterns report that discussed synergies and establishing a net present value.

http://siriusbuzz.com/bear-stearns-issues-note.php

Janco is also using the time value of money in their call

http://siriusbuzz.com/janco-upgrades...-synergies.php

I hope this clarifies where the merger synergy nbnumbers come from

thats all great and wonderful Tyler, but please address the SIriusxm take down of that target.... they themselves dont see it, never did...
they either guessed wrong or were just plain misinformed.. no clue...

[relmor2003]

Quote:
Who brought up the manipulation in the stock first(besides me)...
Brandon did. he went to bat, and battled the banks, the company, and others to let it be known this stock is not trading even to a NORMAL degree of manipulation. The manipulation in this stock runs to the media(fake bk article, WSJ fluff piece day before we lost 50 percent stock value(from the PM high)... too many examples to mention....
when did Brandon, discover this bit of information and make it public I'm just curious as to when this information was being pursued and if it included the fine folks over at Sirius and or xm

thanks Tim

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Last edited by tim wallick; Today at 10:33 AM.

he wrote about it right after the merger or right before, i dont remember.
I can look it up, one sec... well over 6 months ago...I cant archive back that far. have to use my posts to find it, take some time or if you just want a general date, id say it was first mentioned in July or June... No later than September, and no earlier than March.