SIRI INTRA DAY thread THUR MAY 7th 2009

[relmor2003]

during the CC, one exec said they only count subs where they get paid, either by the end user (retail, online, or automobile radio), or by the automobile company when it pays S-XM for several months of sub. Obviously, when the car company pays for X months, and the car owner decides not to sign up after that initial period, the sub drops out of the numbers. So, not sure if that's really a problem in counting subs. If they were to also count giveaway/trial subs, where no revenue is generated, that would be a problem. It does stand to reason that if auto sales are down, it's likely fewer paying subs will be had via that channel, either via instant direct signup or if car company paying for initial sub. So....did this exec speak the truth, or was it BS?

Let me explain my post your commenting on better. I re read, it is confusing. I meant sub growth, not actual permanent sub growth. They call it self paying customers. I wasnt confused on how XM and Sirius wanted to grow, but once you combine the way the do their subs, i think the problem became more clear.
Its a math problem. This math problem has problems. Im working on it right now. All has to do with the retention rate. This way of calculating the sub count has flaws on a math level over time, forget the actual breakdown.
It will be clear in a minute, i have to work on this. When your sucking kool aid you dont bother really getting into the details of how the simply way the count subs will be a problem for a long time actually.

[sxminvestor]

are we gonna close here at .43? lookslike we could break upwards for close. i dont think we will see anymore massive drops but now that ive said im sure one is coming, darn shoulda kept my mouth shut.

Think about the ass that I felt like saying that it looks like it was going to hold the .53 - .54 since there was no big drop in the 1st 20 minutes. It literally took all of 3 seconds after I posted for it to collapse. Once again, should have been happy at all to be even from the day before with that bad sub# and got out there, but I thought the improvement in cash flow and worst behind them would trend it higher.

I am going to have to think much higher in the future before I have a positive feel again.

I bailed at .46 cents to see if I can get an opportunity to buy in the low .30's - just my feeling or I would not have sold down. I will wait for volume to dry up to almost nothing before inching back in again or move onto something else.

The overall market is ripe for a major correction of at least 10% after a 9 week run.

[bassmaster]

just received an email answer to my comment to Investor Relations, asking for my phone number so a rep can call me to answer my questions. Hmmmm.....is this how they reply normally.....or perhaps someone from sales will call and try to sell me 400,000 subs?

honestly didnt mean to be mean at all. i just wanted to make you aware that imo the disparity in the net loss reporting was not a big deal, especially if youre a long. but with that said, i hope you make progress with your communications with investor relations on the PR front. i personally would love to see better headlines....ty...gl

[john]

Guys dont blame SIRIXM, for this report being messed up. Blame Enron, Blame the reporters they should have some ethics to report things the correct way. The company is forced to report the way they reported due to the new rules the SEC put into place after the Enron debacle.




P.S. If a common man like myself could catch it, I believe most others will be able to. I mean my god I dont have a degree in this crap, everything I know about this crap I learned from my old man, and being in it for so long.

[underway]

honestly didnt mean to be mean at all. i just wanted to make you aware that imo the disparity in the net loss reporting was not a big deal, especially if youre a long. but with that said, i hope you make progress with your communications with investor relations on the PR front. i personally would love to see better headlines....ty...gl

didn't think you were being mean...no prob! My frustration is to see positive momentum lost, partially due to poor press release and then not even discussing it in the CC. Agreed, long position will win overall.

[underway]

Guys dont blame SIRIXM, for this report being messed up. Blame Enron, Blame the reporters they should have some ethics to report things the correct way. The company is forced to report the way they reported due to the new rules the SEC put into place after the Enron debacle.

P.S. If a common man like myself could catch it, I believe most others will be able to. I mean my god I dont have a degree in this crap, everything I know about this crap I learned from my old man, and being in it for so long.

My bitch isn't about the data itself. They have to report stuff by SEC regs, no quarrel over that. It's the WAY they did it. They're an international, public company, with mainstream media attention, not some POS company on the pink sheets no one ever heard of. They MUST have PR people properly craft the messages they release. You can tell by the dozens of articles that came out following the release that there was a lot of attention on missing P&L estimates and loss of subs. Now, that's true, accurate info. They did miss. But, EXPLAIN the disparity between (.01) and (.07) and that the .07 loss is one time (is it though?....I'm not sure). Everyone knew they'd lose a lot of subs. So, that really isn't the culprit in tanking the stock today, IMHO. It's that f'n .07 loss.

[JohnnyIrishXM]

My bitch isn't about the data itself. They have to report stuff by SEC regs, no quarrel over that. It's the WAY they did it. They're an international, public company, with mainstream media attention, not some POS company on the pink sheets no one ever heard of. They MUST have PR people properly craft the messages they release. You can tell by the dozens of articles that came out following the release that there was a lot of attention on missing P&L estimates and loss of subs. Now, that's true, accurate info. They did miss. But, EXPLAIN the disparity between (.01) and (.07) and that the .07 loss is one time (is it though?....I'm not sure). Everyone knew they'd lose a lot of subs. So, that really isn't the culprit in tanking the stock today, IMHO. It's that f'n .07 loss.

actually everyone didn't know they would lose subs,unless you checked here or other sites,did you know 3 weeks ago we would lose 400k subs,think not..
well the avg retail investor didn't either and for that matter neither did some professional analysts..we forget the info we get here is good and not widespread..

P.S.good move on the e-mail to investor relations,hope he explains himself,let us know what happened.

[imromo24]

how is it that the bid and ask are exactly .43 after hours? i haven't seen that happen yet

[trippingthespeculatingpos]

god i hope this is just a quick pullback and not a new trend for the nexdt couple weeks.

[imromo24]

good publicity

Exclusive Interview With Eminem to Air on SIRIUS XM's Shade 45 Channel
2:00p ET May 7, 2009 (PR NewsWire)
SIRIUS XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) announced today that it will broadcast an exclusive, in-depth, three-hour interview with Eminem on its Shade 45 channel.

The unprecedented special "Shade 45 Presents...Eminem: The Prelapse Special" will air on Friday, May 15 at 8:00 pm ET on Shade 45, SIRIUS channel 45 and XM channel 66. During the three-hour special, Eminem will take listeners on a guided tour through the making of his highly anticipated comeback album Relapse, in stores May 19.

Eminem will give track-by-track analysis and behind-the-scenes commentary on his triumphant return to the music scene while overcoming tragedy, loss and confronting his own personal demons. "Eminem: The Prelapse Special" will offer listeners a rare and candid look at Eminem reflecting on his life, career and his future.

"Eminem: The Prelapse Special" will be rebroadcast on SIRIUS XM's Shade 45 channel every day from May 15 through May 19.

2009 MTV Movie Awards
Are all your favorites represented? Who should win? Here's the spot to weigh in with your opinion. Guest List Andy Samberg is hosting and Eminem is confirmed to perform. More celebrity guest announcements are about to made. Who do you want…
MTV·5/4/2009 http://www.mtv.com/ontv/movieawards/2009/boards.jhtml