SIRI INTRA DAY thread THUR MAY 7th 2009

[bassmaster]

bassmaster, I am pissed I thought the quarterly report was really good. Because of that I missed a sell at .53, .54 (had one in at .615) and a rebuy at .43. I mean holy crap anyone following this company for a while knows the fact that they only lost 3.6 million in FCF for the first quarter should have been big news. That is as close to being FCF positive as they have ever gotten. Look at what they lost last year what 311 million in FCF for the first quarter. On top of that it is like them making payments on the princble of that debt (not the just the interest mind you but princible). They did that and only lost 3.6 million in FCF, that is amazing.

SIGH!!!!!!!! sorry john, but how/when did you miss when they opened at .55?...i am very comfortable in my 100k@.88, i have plenty of cash available, but im not overreaching in this equity(as with other equities i feel im maxed out in)..im not/nor consider myself a daytrader so i can only sympathize john, but if i was looking to add more (as a long) i would definitely add more at the current price.

of course the (3.4m) fcf is also HUGEEEEEEEEE news. as many have said here, the companys metrics are getting better. this Q1 might even be more noteworthy because of that. this dip is temporary imo. will range in the .50's soon , imo.

p.s. even if sirius shlts bricks of gold, media would spin it like "oh, theyre just gold bricks of shlt"....

[trippingthespeculatingpos]

we still got tommorow, and the possibility liberty brings us up which always has good effects. im sure an analyst will ask about siri. all the typical bashers arecoming out, i dont even want to spread there trash right now. so typical of them and well timed.

[underway]

Yes John, FCF is HUGE....and so is the one time charge that's behind us. But mgmt has allowed the loss discrepancy to overshadow the positive, by NOT EXPLAINING IT! I just don't get it. They should fire whoever writes their press releases, and perhaps the senior exec who put it in front of the CEO, etc. So frustrating. I can see them all in the board room right now watching the headlines and falling SP saying 'I thought you corrected that release...no, I thought you did). MORONS. Nothing they could've done to sugar coat the sub loss, but just about everyone knew that was coming (except some dumb ass analyst that I just read was figuring they wouldn't lose subs....Duh? What f'n planet is he living on?...perhaps driving around on the lunar rover on the moon listening to Best of XM?)...

[underway]

Im feeling like a genius for selling at .51 yesterday. I cant tell you how much I agonized about selling because i thought stock would fly up today and i would hate myself. But i sold anyway and now im Yay! Its not often i feel smart

yup...good move to take some profit. I too sold 20k shares yesterday, but I'm holding a truckload long.

[john]

John actually it was 76mil FCF if you take out the 1 time Liberty cost..
Based just von the bussiness side of operations..

I know but I do include all that in FCF because if that were not the case then you get to confused as to what the true FCF really is and how much is left for COH.

[relmor2003]

I dont know but I still think that only 3.6 million in FCF lost in the first quarter, is huge. You can confirm that with "homer" or "Tyler". When was the last time we ever saw them come that close to being FCF positive in the first quarter, try never. Remember the 4th quarter will have a really big FCF number. This time all the merger cost are done the only thing this time is the satellite launch (god I wish they would push that one back also). You want to see the PPS take off let them push that back.

John I agree with that 3.6 million being huge. 1 quarter now with positive EBITA. And they almost have FCF, and their worst quarter too.
Positives in order of importance for me personally.
1. GM contract. Lets face it, its GM. They still sell a ton of vehicles. Reworking this deal with help them down the road much more than today.
2. Raising, not reiterating EBITA guidance for the year. Nice.
3. Lowered ARPU. Remove the ad dollars, they factor into this. What matters is subs that cancelled because they didnt want to pay the extra 2.99 already cancelled. This means MOST DIDNT. SiriusXM gets the extra 2.99 from a vast majority of the subs, and few locked in long term rates. If this wasnt the case, ARPU would have went up, not down. The ad dollar explanation dodged this point.
4. Cut costs by 23 percent. No comment needed. Mel and Malone are frugal. That will hurt and help them. In the short term though, cash in king right now, its good. The "hurt" is that marketing dollars arent being directed from savings.
5. Mel has STATED IN PERSON they CAN PAY ALL DEBTS FROM 2009 AND 2010 WITH CASH ON HAND. There you go basher. No bk even POSSIBLE till 2011, and we know by then with autos up, we will be more worried about where to sell, and book profits , not if they are going bk or not.
6. Revenue Year to Year was up.
7. Cost to acquire subs dropped dramatically.
Negatives.
1. Auto sales "sucked"
2. Retail "sucked".
About all I could find. other than the subs, I didnt see much else.

Didnt even mention the Iphone or Ipod apps. Those are unknowns. Might add around 500k subs, max. But will help with retention. Expect the 45 percent take rate to go back up after this quarter. Money was tight for consumers, bad time for them to be deciding on whether they want to spend an extra 13 a month. But that is only temporary. 1 percent self pay churn is why Im not worried about the promo percentage.

[JohnnyIrishXM]

correction 66mil...



(6) Free cash flow is calculated as follows:


Unaudited Pro Forma
Three Months Ended
March 31,
2009 2008 Net cash used in operating activities $66,871 $(246,988)
Additions to property and equipment (71,140) (56,093)
Merger related costs 623 (10,018)
Restricted and other investment activity - 2,000
Free cash flow $(3,646) $(311,099)


(7) Average self-pay monthly churn; conversion rate; ARPU; SAC, as adjusted, per gross subscriber addition; customer service and billing expenses, as adjusted, per average subscriber; and free cash flow are not measures of financial performance under U.S. generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP"). We believe these non-GAAP financial measures provide meaningful supplemental information regarding our operating performance and are used by us for budgetary and planning purposes; when publicly providing our business outlook; as a means to evaluate period-to-period comparisons; and to compare our performance to that of our competitors. We also believe that investors also use our current and projected metrics to monitor the performance of our business and to make investment decisions.

We believe the exclusion of share-based payment expense in our calculations of SAC, as adjusted, per gross subscriber addition and customer service and billing expenses, as adjusted, per average subscriber is useful given the significant variation in expense that can result from changes in the fair market value of our common stock, the effect of which is unrelated to the operational conditions that give rise to variations in the components of our subscriber acquisition costs and customer service and billing expenses. Specifically, the exclusion of share-based payment expense in our calculation of SAC, as adjusted, per gross subscriber addition is critical in being able to understand the economic impact of the direct costs incurred to acquire a subscriber and the effect over time as economies of scale are reached.

These non-GAAP financial measures are used in addition to and in conjunction with results presented in accordance with GAAP. These non-GAAP financial measures may be susceptible to varying calculations; may not be comparable to other similarly titled measures of other companies; and should not be considered in isolation, as a substitute for, or superior to measures of financial performance prepared

[JohnnyIrishXM]

I know but I do include all that in FCF because if that were not the case then you get to confused as to what the true FCF really is and how much is left for COH.

agree but for purpose of convo here it is better than loss each quarter..
using same measure it was 19k in 4th quarter,meaning we can pay for stuff now instead of borrowing..

[john]

SIGH!!!!!!!! sorry john, but how/when did you miss when they opened at .55?...i am very comfortable in my 100k@.88, i have plenty of cash available, but im not overreaching in this equity(as with other equities i feel im maxed out in)..im not/nor consider myself a daytrader so i can only sympathize john, but if i was looking to add more (as a long) i would definitely add more at the current price.

of course the (3.4m) fcf is also HUGEEEEEEEEE news. as many have said here, the companys metrics are getting better. this Q1 might even be more noteworthy because of that. this dip is temporary imo. will range in the .50's soon , imo.

p.s. even if sirius shlts bricks of gold, media would spin it like "oh, theyre just gold bricks of shlt"....

bassmaster, I am sorry but what did you not get about this statement;

"I am pissed I thought the quarterly report was really good. Because of that I missed a sell at .53, .54 (had one in at .615) and a rebuy at .43."


I will do my best at explaining it more clearly. I had a sell order in at .615 and kept it there because I thought the report was good and the PPS would get at least that high. If I was not so up on the report I would have been mislead like many and sold at .53 or .54 then I would have bought back at a ten cent gain at .43 or .44. I hope that clears it up for you, BECAUSE MY GOD I CANT DO ANY BETTER.

[relmor2003]

I'm listening to the CC and watching Level 2 at the same time, and have come to this conclusion:

This marketing guy (third speaker thus far) has got to go. No wonder Sirius/XM's marketing is non-existent and what little there is, sucks.

When Mr. Marketing started speaking, the pre-market price went down a couple cents, even though he really wasn't saying anything.

Marketing, marketing, marketing...

I agree.. Been complaining about that for over 1 year now. They had reasons to tank their marketing premerger, but not now. NO excuse for it. Never been cheaper to advertise too.