My short coming Cos is i type with 2 fingers and words don't flow through my hands as well as they do in my head.(hence my short post)would much rather have a verbal discussion then typed one..but we all have our faults...
The net effect. Not "in effect". Hmm... Ok, diction here. But I see Brandon has come out and defended the article as you thought he meant, Homer, and the rest. I see now. But what Im talking about is a hypothetical comparison of the effect of being able to now sell shares, and its perception of the Malone deal, and Brandon is actually saying the shares can be removed. Im a little shocked that that is actually what he meant. I have to disagree then with Brandon, unless LIberty CHOOSES to sell them back, they dont have too. They can refinance the loan or get a better deal on that, but they cant be forced to sell back the 40%. But my point is still valid, and Malone did do more than just loan us money, he gave us a chance to sell shares for debt again. Oooo goodie.
a couple of thoughts on this thread(not the bashing parts)Originally Posted by relmor2003
The net effect. Not "in effect". Hmm... Ok, diction here. But I see Brandon has come out and defended the article as you thought he meant, Homer, and the rest. I see now. But what Im talking about is a hypothetical comparison of the effect of being able to now sell shares, and its perception of the Malone deal, and Brandon is actually saying the shares can be removed. Im a little shocked that that is actually what he meant. I have to disagree then with Brandon, unless LIberty CHOOSES to sell them back, they dont have too. They can refinance the loan or get a better deal on that, but they cant be forced to sell back the 40%. But my point is still valid, and Malone did do more than just loan us money, he gave us a chance to sell shares for debt again. Oooo goodie.
1. not everyone fully understands the nature of the malone deal. maybe a new thread just focused on that?
2. IF the preferred shares CAN'T be returned, i would bet anything dillution(issuance) comes before conversion(malone would never let himself get dilluted) and R/S after. at least we'll know R/S wont happen at any given moment.
3. with 40% of sirius and BOD seats, malone will look out for his own interests prior to common s/h regardless of his intentions, he doesnt have a majority but enough pull to do as he wishes.
4. malone now runs this company and mel k. is his puppet and at his beckencall. mel k can't do anything without consulting with malone first, imo.
relmor , i agree with you that 1 of the good side effects of the malone deal is a chance to dillute at a higher price and pay down debt. but in order to make that opinion the best scenario, you(anyone) have to be under the assumption that sirius was in fact going bankrupt. but if i remember correctly and i could be totally WRONG , you , cos, sl, and few other posters didnt believe BK was for real and made great arguments as to why you guys felt that way. ( i didnt think it was going bk either, maybe cause you guys convinced me?). so perhaps we could have had an organic rise then dillution? which in essence would be better than the position we're in now. but, what's done is done. maybe its worthless arguing semantics, and the best idea is to accept whats going on, and adjust strategies from here (after everyone understands the malone deal???)...ty..gl
Last edited by bassmaster; 04-23-2009 at 03:47 AM.
p.s.
bottom line: the new authorization just means sirius is paying off more debt off our backs(the longs)SIGH!!!!!!!!
Johnny...., I here ya.... this format of written word doesn't provide all that's required to really get the message across... sometimes I forget that I owe a lot to a really nice looking "Typing Teacher" in the 7th and 8th grade many years ago, who provided Ample Motivation to this budding adolescent ....My short coming Cos is i type with 2 fingers and words don't flow through my hands as well as they do in my head.(hence my short post)would much rather have a verbal discussion then typed one..but we all have our faults...
Last edited by cos1000; 04-23-2009 at 08:11 AM.
Bassmaster, In one of my posts I do say (theoretically) about the perceived BK situation. Still the stock was trading at terrible levels even before BK.... I dont think they are ready to sell shares for debt again, not at these levels anyway, but as weve seen .63 cents on the upswing so far, its looking more and more possible, sentiment on this pig is changing. But no, I dont think BK was going to happen, but I now have to assume it was, because investors think it was, etc... So far removed from it now.... Almost have to assume the .12 cent bottom was based on facts in order to find traction on these issues.
I agree, Malone will never dilute his shares, so he was convert after the dilution, stock sale, and the R/S. The R/S comes after the dilution, not before. I think that point is pretty much all agreed upon. They can still dilute after the R/S, but you get better value diluting before especially if you can get over .50 cents per shares. Doing that, then R/S makes the stockholders on the other side of these transactions smelling like a rose.
Last edited by relmor2003; 04-23-2009 at 10:39 AM.
yep,meet the new owner same as the old one, near term only.when giving the chance they will try to increase their stake in sdars based on the resale value and footprint of the spectrum alone. imhop.s.
bottom line: the new authorization just means sirius is paying off more debt off our backs(the longs)
i think malone is a real investor with a very forward looking eye on digital media, content creation,protection and distribution along with the related content rights issue.
liberty may have a sort of built in ability to distribute content globally into 150 countries and maintains some type of relationship with google via the liberty global operations/management input functions.
i would not be surprised to see some type of deal done with at&t or sprint and directtv as i honestly think near term cell networks or companies will make another move deeper into content creation for control of the rights at the distribution level.
even starz recently indicated they wish to distribute more material on a international basis but the content rights often prevent it. so they will develop more internally.
currently directtv, comcast, at&t,timewarner and a couple of others are looking at building a on-line protected, shared content library. which the public could access on line for a fee or free as a current user of one of the listed companies.
the older forms of communications newspaper, magazines, Morse code, radio,TV, telegraph,snail mail and the wired phone have all gave way to portable digital wireless devices and internet platforms. I happen to think (broadcasters) need a cell partner in todays world and going forward to share the burden of content ownership,distribution and creation with, while migrating or extending the content reach into other newer distribution formats and channels.
The net effect. Not "in effect". Hmm... Ok, diction here. But I see Brandon has come out and defended the article as you thought he meant, Homer, and the rest. I see now. But what Im talking about is a hypothetical comparison of the effect of being able to now sell shares, and its perception of the Malone deal, and Brandon is actually saying the shares can be removed. Im a little shocked that that is actually what he meant. I have to disagree then with Brandon, unless LIberty CHOOSES to sell them back, they dont have too. They can refinance the loan or get a better deal on that, but they cant be forced to sell back the 40%. But my point is still valid, and Malone did do more than just loan us money, he gave us a chance to sell shares for debt again. Oooo goodie.
I left you a comment over at SA on Tylers article. I went there first. I am sorry but when you tried to say Brandon was say that he did not think the shares could be returned that it was a fact that they are now able to sell the shares for far more then before I had to rebuff that. It was clear from my post to him and his response that he thought SIRIXM could get the shares back. Now that people are seeing that fact (and that Brandon was saying is truely false) they are all tring to say; HO no I didn't think that was what he was saying or I was joking. Complete bullshit.
Also go look at the PPS in Dec.,...................................Now that you have done that. Why did they not just sell the shares that they had before the PPS was alot higher back then also. The Malone deal brought it BACK up, that is true but it was up before when they had the extra shares to sell.
Tyler, I am sorry but really come on, while I know you dont want to attack Brandon. The fact is that is what he thought (that the liberty deal could be TOTALLY REVERSED). One only has to look at the comments left at Seeking Alpha on both articles to see that is what he thought. I for one am not going to let his ass back out of this like he tries to do with all the rest of his lame ass comments. Now if he wants to say I am sorry, I was wrong, that is one thing but I am not letting him just back out of making a dumb ass suggestion like the one he just did.
Yep, pretty much. But in all fairness, I have felt this all along. They have several debt issues maturing in the next 12-18 months that I believe will continue to be exchanged for shares. In fact, I read comments from Greg Maffei within the last week where he pretty much came right out and said this -- that they're looking at exchanging more Sirius debt.bottom line: the new authorization just means sirius is paying off more debt off our backs(the longs)
But that is where the problem is -- and likely why they're asking for another authorization increase. Because issuing 500MM shares of common shares in exchange for debt, is not just 500MM shares; that is because of the Liberty 40% exchange which is non-dilutive to themselves. 500MM common added, is actuall 833MM added when accounting for Liberty's stake on a fully diluted basis. For example, the outstanding sharecount right now is approximately 3.88BB; fully diluted it is about 6.46BB. So if Sirius issues 500MM new shares in exchange for debt, it will take the common outstanding to 4.38BB; but the fully dilluted would jump up to 7.3BB. Further example, issuing 1BB new shares in exchange for debt would take the common outstanding to 4.88BB; but fully diluted it is about 8.13BB.
So in hindsight, I even more believe that this is what is going on... they're looking to exchange more debt for equity -- and issuing as much as 1BB shares for debt, would take them over their current 8BB authorization cap.
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