Im back baby! Bought in at 2.50 and strategically avg. down to .46 a share. It has been a long time since i have seen green on my TDA account with siri.
What is everyones next move? Part of me wanted to sell just because i have my money back. Another part wants to wait for q1 and iphone app. Very tough.
^^ My advice.Originally Posted by anthonyf
From here on out, I don't see a lot of downside to the stock. If synergies are working, then I could see us at $1 before Q2 earnings.
You and me both! I'm averaged in at just about .45 and I don't think I've seen green in almost FOUR years. I'm curious as to everyone's next move, but I'm definately hanging on until the Q1 call. I think the ride has just begun.
No one is worried about the subscriber numbers for Q1? The only way I don't see a dip in the stock after the Q1 call is if they announce the iPhone app and people trade on emotion.
That's my 2 cents... I am enjoying the ride just like you guys right now.
Charles LaRocca
SiriusBuzz Founder
Typically the sub numbers have been my biggest fear. However, without a large loss in subs, I see the stock going up. The Iphone app that everyone is so excited about really isn't as big a deal as far as stock price is concerned. I'm sure the publicity is going to boost the SP but its going to be a head fake. The synergies are driving the price at this point and we still have a ways to go on the SP. I have been saying an SP of upper .60's before the Q1 report. After the Q1 (I expect a small loss in subs, rev increase, and best case scenario Sirius XM gives some guidance) we get over 1 and are pushing 1.25 by Q2. If auto sales pick up before Q2 1.25 will be blown by. If stocks are valued 3 to 6 months forward even keeping subs relatively flat should see the SP grow with rev increases due to synergies. Just my take.
Just throwing this out there cause I have thought about this a little... Other than a significant loss in subs what else could tank this stock in the near term? A failure in the launch of the next satellite. If for some reason the thing doesn’t make it to orbit because of a catastrophic failure in launch, does the SP take a big hit? I know there is insurance on them but from a psychological standpoint Sirius XM is just beginning to look very attractive. Would a failed launch change that?
Charles, the problem is every time you put your 2 cents in it ends up costing us 4.
Sorry had to do it. I say it everytime someone says they are putting there 2 cents in.
I would imagine that they have solid insurance on something like that. There is no way any company slaps a rocket on something over 100 mil and hopes for the best.
Charles LaRocca
SiriusBuzz Founder
I have to say no because to be honest they lose nothing because of insurance. They have a spare already just sitting there on the ground in storage. The ones in orbit still have 5 years of life left in their orbital life spans. Finally I never liked them spending the money (that they really dont have) to put another satellite up so soon, before really need it. You know it is a cost of about 60 million a year based on a 15 year orbital life span. If they are going to put them up every 10 years that means it gos up to about 90 million a year. 30 million dollars a year, is 30 million dollars a year.
Last edited by john; 04-18-2009 at 02:50 PM.
i think the name of the game is can they reach that target of 300 mil, if they seem on pace to reach it then all is good.
I think the Street and Naysayers are worried more about subscriber numbers than those who understand what is driving the bottom line right now.
I felt long ago and discussed this with John, that the merged company's metrics are much different than when they were competing and the race for perceived market share was what gave them Street Credibility. Those days are gone and all though Subscriber growth is still important, it must now be viewed as growth at what cost. Loss per share will be more important than sub growth. SAC and ARPU are now more important than subscriber growth. This neutral to slightly negative sub growth due to Churn, is temporary while the OEM market and the Economy as a whole reset.
Revenue streams from successful iPhone Apps, Internet Fees, Secondary Car Market, and the eventual recovery in the primary OEM market will soon be bringing growth in Sub numbers. They are also starting to kick off some live concert tours with Sirius Simulcast which helps. We need more than just J Buffet's Parrot heads to make this type of Grass Roots marketing work. Getting the Dead Heads involved helps also... but they still need more.
I would also stretch that easing of restrictions on trade with Cuba, Puerto Rico, and other Caribean Nations such as Jamaica, The Dominican, and the US Virgin Islands, and the like will bring up Business Subs (resorts) and the retail market. Granted the numbers are relatively small, but with Sirius Birds already in a Geosynch. Equitorial Orbit the geography could easily be covered with minimal Repeater Transponder requirements. I think this is the reason they are stepping up the Fall Launch of Sirius Sat to June 29th I believe.
So yeah Sub Growth is a concern, but a temporary one. Its all about the FCF IMO.
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