Originally Posted by MUSCLE13
OK. I'll say it. How can you be utterly shocked? You began this thread with the words "Brandon Said" and continued with "there would no baseball on Sirius" or something to that effect.
It's like being home. No one listens to me.
See my above post... I have personally seen "Mel" (aka, Infinity) walk away from a deal that made no economic sense.
Sorry, I significantly disagree with you.
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Guys, I am sorry to say Ryan seems very pessimistic about a deal.
I am in utter shock over whats happening but still have a little bit of hope for possibly a delayed deal. Remember XM didn't get the NFL until a month into the season. I wonder if there will be some kind of pressure from Sirius subs next week. I hope so!
Well if Ryan says it, it must be true! What do we little people at Sirius Buzz know?
I have a lot of respect for Ryan. For a blogger who seemed to have come from the tech side without a ton of knowledge of the media business he has really tried hard to look at the media side. And when its all said and done, sat radio is one the most pure media businesses that exists. He's a good guy. I email him a lot. I think Tyler really tries to get the media business side too, but he doesn't really post that much anymore.
It really makes me scratch my head sometimes when I see guys blogging with no experience following media. Homer is in the business but I don't see many more around who have the background or experience following media companies and that surprises the hell out of me when it comes to sat radio blogs and boards.
Last edited by MUSCLE13; 04-05-2009 at 03:05 AM.
Ryan's pessimism is less important than his starting to accept the reality that Sports Rights Deals are about making money for the Distributor not just the Sports entities, MLB, NFL,NBA, etc.. Ask commercial networks who, by having the deals, thought that they would make money from the advertising revenue that was derived to pay for those deals... As these sports entities have raised their contract expense to the networks, being profitable has become almost impossible on advertising alone.
This year is about making money for SXM, as it will be every year, but especially this year. With a subscriber model and predictable revenues, I think they have a pretty good handle on what makes them money. Making deals that are good for the bottom line will be critical going forward. Expanding the existing deal to Sirius with the MLB would be a good deal. Giving up revenues this year to MLB beyond their existing deal would not be, even with Best of for Sirius subs. Let this bad economic year for consumers hit the MLB and we'll see whether they, MLB, made a good decision to limit their products exposure to another 10M subs.... Next year when MLB's product sales are down on everything baseball, maybe they will see the light in expanding their exposure to a larger maket place.
Also on another subject, it is not surprising to find investors investing in businesses or industries that they have not worked in... Also I don't see how it is necessary to work in media to be able to understand the business model, evaluate fiscal performance, integrate current events pro and con, and then report on the issues that face a Media Company. What is surprising is that an individual would think that a blogger or investor couldn't do that....
Last edited by cos1000; 04-05-2009 at 10:50 AM.
I didn't say worked in. It seems that almost nobody on the boards or blogs has followed media companies besides Sirius for any length of time and thats extremely surprising to me.
I guess thats the internet for you. What term was used a few times? Was it unsophisticated?
Also I think all of the Sirius subs should not give up on baseball yet for this year. It's a long season. Anything can happen. I hope the fans put some pressure on. Who is to say Mel can't make an accretive deal during the season???
No doubt, can we give Mel a little credit for god sakes. He has said it many many times, he would walk away from any deal that did not make SIRI/SIRIXM money, I think by this time he knows just what deals will work and what ones will not. I can only imagine the people that would have been all over him for making another costly deal.
You dont have to even have invested in a media company for that long to be able to crasp the concept. Lets also remember that SIRI/XMSR/SIRIXM were not really considered media companies for to long. Besides all that we have seen many analyst and MSM reporters that have said the current deal with MLB was to expensive.
There is so much more going on with MLB - that others just don't understand. The MLB deal is a very complicated deal, as I've stated in the past. It's not going to get any simpler, now.
You have MLB, the teams - and even the home teams radio stations involved, which I neglected to point out before. MLB and the teams took a lot of heat from those station over the XM deal... they are not about to make it easy for Sirius to be added to the mix. It's going to cost them. And Karmazin is not in a position to be adding expenses right now - and I've seen Karmazin walk away from sports deals several times when they made no economic sense.
Here's an example of some of the heat that MLB took over the XM deal awhile back...
http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/article/92155
To Infinity And Beyond: XM Deal Starting To Affect MLB Teams
Infinity Broadcasting Chair & CEO Joel Hollander “is willing, and prepared, to walk away from” the company’s radio rights deals with the Mets, Tigers, Rangers and Cardinals, all of which are up at the end of this season, after MLB signed an 11-year, $650M deal with XM Satellite Radio, according to sources cited by Bob Raissman of the N.Y. DAILY NEWS. The Mets have an $8M annual deal with Infinity-owned WFAN-AM, and the Yankees have a $10M deal with Infinity-owned WCBS-AM that expires after the ’06 season, and Hollander said that the XM agreement “will affect both deals.” Hollander: “There has been a dilution of our baseball product. We would like to continue our relationships with the Yankees and Mets, but we have to make fiscally responsible deals.” Raissman noted XM will air the local radio feed from each market, and sources indicated that MLB has “attempted to delete all local commercials from XM baseball broadcasts, replacing them with national spots sold by XM.” Unlike MLB Commissioner Bud Selig, NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue “consulted with his radio partners prior to finalizing” the league’s deal with Sirius and “immediately agreed to pay local outlets for their feeds.” MLB has “reluctantly agreed to pay the rights holders for their feeds,” but the payment “won’t come close to offsetting the loss of exclusivity.” Also, each team’s share of the deal will not “offset the huge reduction in radio rights fees teams are now facing” (N.Y. DAILY NEWS, 2/26).
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