SIRI Intraday Thread: Wednesday, April 1st

[choirgirl]

Thanks Johnny, your personal targets are just wonderful and I guess most of us hope you will be dead on.
As for the auto market, I assume the worst is behind us, it is a matter of consolidation. DB just got more than 2bil Euro from Abu Dhabi and has installed a huge cost reduction plan and on top of that they are in negotiation with BMW of a possible merger. Gm-Europe has received a bid for Opel/Vauxhall (Privat investor but covered by German Goverment ), that could help GM here in the US to avoid bk and Ford is in good shape anyway.
Btw, Porsche just announced the best result in the history 7.33 bil Euro profit and they own more than 50% of VW now.

choirgirl,My personal opinion is after 2Qcc when we will have hopefully 2 good revenue quarters behind us and with auto market rebounding the company will be able to give better guidance numbers for the next 2 quarters and show big money that siriusXM's bussiness model will work long term..
my personal SP targets are .50 by june and .71 by august which should be
2Q cc about august 10th or so..after that i'm expecting $1 to $1.44 Sp by end of year..JMHO

[relmor2003]

I think the overall consensus among those of us that have a grasp on the REAL and VALID S.P. for SIRI know it's going to go up. Right now - the bottom line we're all getting at - is that we're in a period of consolidation ie. low volume and we are continually getting to a point where the weekly triangle patterns show us nearing a convergence - only to be broken by the MM's artificially putting the SP where they want. Now as FRUSTRATING as all this is... I have to think that at some point - we have to break out - as stated earlier in this thread - the MM's are going to have to move the SP to generate volume.

Unless you are a day/swing trader - and are getting frustrated trying to anticipate movement - you should primarily be protecting your core and being patient. Everyone should have a strategy - but it would be foolish to exit when you know full well we just have to wait out the MM's (who will become impatient with the volume at some point)

Another factor - News/Momentum is starting to build to the upside:
- The numbers on the auto industry side were better than anticipated
- Synergies are just starting to be realized
- Weak hands are getting shaken out of this stock to form a platform for the next upswing
- We are on the cusp of the S-XM Iphone App - and that has the potential to more than double subs IMHO - considering you aren't just looking at streaming S-XM in the areas the satellites cover now - you will start reaching OUTSIDE S-XM'S USUAL SUB REGION - (the perfect storm would be if S-XM started working markets like JAPAN IMHO - they are nutz for tech and it would just take some dedicated content on the international side to rapidly expand)
- I don't think we're seeing everything behind the scenes with the satellites and transmission spectrum. If S-XM can find even the slightest way to exchange some kind of data flow on the existing satellites to Liberty - it would be big. For that matter - if they SOLD some of the spectrum - even a tiny part - it would be huge. (of course I realize they have to maintain coverage for existing receivers on both the SIRI and XM sides - but they can start transitioning one way or the other to consolidate)
- Internet - we are seeing the cracks form in the business models for all the internet radio folks. Not just little cracks but HUGE ones - since they in effect aren't going to survive the coming royalty/content issues. S-XM has a good business model and IMHO will push those jokers out of the way.
- We haven't even discussed the wild-cards yet. And they ARE out there -

Keep faith people - ignore my occasional rants in the day from the manipulation - it's steam venting out. If we panic - the MM's and shorts get what they want.

Don't try to predict - ride the flow.... and if presented with an opportunity to enter lower - be thankful....

~rick

Good post. I see a lot more positives than negatives in the next 3 months from Sirius. I think someone, IM not sure who in another thread mentioned the importance in Q1 of hitting or beating earning, and that would offset any bad sub data. I agree. I think bad sub data is now priced in, and the only reason we havent taken out .40 cents yet(that and the uncertainty of GM and Chrysler(bad timing). Quarter report might not necessarily be bad. Rumors are abound about exciting things that will emerge from this report. Not necessarily better subs than expected, but other things. Lets put it this way, I wouldnt worry too much about their being buying interest in this stock on drops. We dont know effect of lifetime subs, or how many people are going to pay for internet vs. cancel(I doubt many), etc... Iphone app for Q2, car sales increasing(Obamas plan, remember the 08 models will be given away, they will move, and Q3 sub numbers might pick up again.

[RMAN]

In reference to Brandon's example...I see how the MM keeps the trade from going through however why would they want to keep a sp stationary. It seems to me no one makes money in that situation.

What about a buyout, someone is going to make a bid for the company.

Keep the price low, costs the buyer much less!

I think we should have already gone up to a 1.00, but it is being held down.

Why else would they do it.

The simple answer is usually the correct one!

[Paratrooper_Rick]

What about a buyout, someone is going to make a bid for the company.

Keep the price low, costs the buyer much less!

I think we should have already gone up to a 1.00, but it is being held down.

Why else would they do it.

The simple answer is usually the correct one!

I see absolutely no evidence at this point the manipulation has anything to do with a pending buyout. Look at other stocks.that's like saying every stock out there being manipulated is being setup for a buyout... not happening in this reality... what's killing us and drawing manipulation is the number of shares available /outstanding diluted here... versus elsewhere.... SIRI is a manipulator's wet dream... plain and simple...

buyout is off the table at this stage... with BK gone and debt dealt with..

too many things are falling into place..

What i see happening now is alot of shorts/manipulators seeing their gravy train drifting out of reach. They know its just a matter of time before the SP is too high to effectively manipulate millions of shares with ease.

[Paratrooper_Rick]

I see absolutely no evidence at this point the manipulation has anything to do with a pending buyout. Look at other stocks.that's like saying every stock out there being manipulated is being setup for a buyout... not happening in this reality... what's killing us and drawing manipulation is the number of shares available /outstanding diluted here... versus elsewhere.... SIRI is a manipulator's wet dream... plain and simple...

buyout is off the table at this stage... with BK gone and debt dealt with..

too many things are falling into place..

What i see happening now is alot of shorts/manipulators seeing their gravy train drifting out of reach. They know its just a matter of time before the SP is too high to effectively manipulate millions of shares with ease.

another thing: look back on the chart to the breakout that got us up here. it was SHEER PANIC on the short side. They got hit hard and they know it's not over - so there is a battle going on right now in SIRI - long versus shorts...

shorts might win a daily battle or three - but longs will win the war - you can quote me on that.

[RMAN]

Well well, it seems I have attained an enlightened status!

I have become one of few

Is there a senior senior member or like the military, one star senior member, two star senior member?

[Hughes]

another thing: look back on the chart to the breakout that got us up here. it was SHEER PANIC on the short side. They got hit hard and they know it's not over - so there is a battle going on right now in SIRI - long versus shorts...

shorts might win a daily battle or three - but longs will win the war - you can quote me on that.

Aren't we getting news on the Uptick rule tomorrow or am I mistaken?

[RMAN]

I see absolutely no evidence at this point the manipulation has anything to do with a pending buyout. Look at other stocks.that's like saying every stock out there being manipulated is being setup for a buyout... not happening in this reality... what's killing us and drawing manipulation is the number of shares available /outstanding diluted here... versus elsewhere.... SIRI is a manipulator's wet dream... plain and simple...

buyout is off the table at this stage... with BK gone and debt dealt with..

too many things are falling into place..

What i see happening now is alot of shorts/manipulators seeing their gravy train drifting out of reach. They know its just a matter of time before the SP is too high to effectively manipulate millions of shares with ease.

So we need a big event to push the SP, to prevent them from holding it down.

If the price goes above a 1.00, does the 4 decimal trading stop?

[Paratrooper_Rick]

So we need a big event to push the SP, to prevent them from holding it down.

If the price goes above a 1.00, does the 4 decimal trading stop?

yes and yes.

I think (again I'm not a self-proclaimed fortune teller - this is my disclaimer)

We rise and fall with the waves for a bit until some key things happen.... I don't see us escaping the double digits within the next four months at least..... more likely 7-8.

We have to get past Q1, Q2, restructuring on the auto side, introduction/emergence of the Iphone and Internet Apps, further realization of synergies, uptick rule....... and the overall market must improve.

The fact that SIRI has actually risen, ie performed better than the overall markets was simply the expected course correction out of BK land. That .13 level was literal hell. This is the correction from that - although I think we'd easily be in the .50's right now notwithstanding the manipulation. That was evident by the three-step HUGE gap down when they cut our momentum two weeks back.

[Paratrooper_Rick]

Aren't we getting news on the Uptick rule tomorrow or am I mistaken?

I'm convinced uptick rule is coming back - as far as dates - I may be mistaken but I haven't seen anything definitive on reinstatement... probably because I've been at work and away from my usual news. If it DOES come back - rest assured there will still be some manipulation - but it will have to evolve to deal with the new rules. Brandon/Relmor/Demian/John/Newman can explain it much better than me.

I predict that it will have little impact in the beginning - as anyone with enough money to manipulate will realize the SEC will have no better chance at enforcing the rules than now. JMHO

Then again - (I know john - I'm slapping myself in the face for showing two-sided prediction) we could end up seeing the manipulators go into a state of shock until they figure out how to adjust - whereby the market will make a markedly strong improvement all over. (I still think #1 is the most likely)

as far as this SP - I think there will be some May surprises.... if not sooner that will propel us back up and give us enough momentum to hit the .60's....

again... JMHO