SIRI Intraday Thread: Thursday, March 26th

[mogami]

Hi, Well I am using my new TDA account that has a lot more bells and whistles compared to ING. A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing. At ING I could only place limit orders to whole cent. At TDA I can go out 4 places.
This morning I decided to buy HAYZ. It had moved up to .21 in premarket.
My plan as always is to wait for sell off and then buy. However rather then simply place a market order I got tricky. I ordered buy at .1901 but by the time my order was placed SP was .1910
I kept adjusting up and SP kept staying .002 or so over me. Finally I just went market and paid .23
SP has been stalled between .21 and .22 all day.
Moral of story don't quibble over a few fractions if the current price is acceptable.

[exilejeff]

put directly towards Social secutrity fund....

doubt they would do that just like they won't pay back medicare because they are planning on nationalizing healthcare.....they will just buy more junk, and create more pointless agencies pull more civilians under the umbrella of government

[underway]

Not sure about the accounting of all this..but....I don't think banks can write down performing loans (loans that are not in default). The property value isn't determined until it is sold once again. Or, in a sense if it is appraised due to refi or foreclosure. But, if the loan is performing, there is no reason for the bank to assume the asset has declined or increased in value. But, I'm no banker (thank God!), nor accountant (double thank God!), but I think most of this mess is due to the repackaging of mortgages into large portfolios which were purchased by the huge merchant banks and investment houses and have become worthless because so many of those repackaged subprime notes are NON-performing loans. So, even though 95% of mortgages are performing, a huge percent of those are NOT subprime. Whereas the 5% of repackaged mortgages are mostly, if not all, subprime. They were attractive investments because of their potential high interest rate yields. But, since most of the people who "bought" houses with subprime loans didn't pay their monthly payments, especially as the ARMs adjusted up, the subprime packages of mortgages became worthless or near worthless.

Relmor, I dont understand you. First you say this:


But then you say this:

You say they are writing down because they are projecting forward, yet you say they are not writing down and huge losses are still ahead? That is crap. They are ALREADY writing down CURRENT values of houses and loans, even ones that are being paid in a timely manner.

Now lets go with your analogy:


No, that is not the same thing AT ALL because you are not being paid on the original value of the house like the banks are. Yes, you are right that there is a 100k PAPER loss, but you still owe the bank 200k, or did they also adjust your loan so that you only have to pay 100k back? Of course not. So that 100k in value they have in your loan, they will get paid back 200k if you make all of your payments, PLUS interest. So they have written your loan down by 100k, but will still get paid 200k plus.

And YES, about 95% of people will pay off their loans. Default and Repossession rate is just about in line with the unemployment rate, right around 5%. Don't let the media get to you. Pay attention to the numbers and you can see through most of the crap.

[Paratrooper_Rick]

I'm getting ready to call another breakout....damn this thing is in a tight range. Draw a line for the uptrend on the daily chart. Then draw another line on the downslope. They meet at .3671. It's running out of room. Up or down, its going to have to decide soon. My moneys on up.

ZERO Barrier will be hit at 2 pm. (for all armageddon fans. thats where and when the apex meets.)

Yoda quote for the day:

“Size matters not (institutional investors). Look at me. Judge me by my size, do you? Hmm? Hmm. And well you should not. For my ally is the Force, and a powerful ally it is (volume is dropping, .36 is dwindling). Life creates it, makes it grow (SIRI). Its energy surrounds us and binds us. Luminous beings are we (the mighty blue dog), not this crude matter. You must feel the Force around you; here, between you, me, the tree, the rock, everywhere, yes. Even between the land and the ship.”

Breakout is coming.... patience young padawans....

[Paratrooper_Rick]

Hi, Well I am using my new TDA account that has a lot more bells and whistles compared to ING. A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing. At ING I could only place limit orders to whole cent. At TDA I can go out 4 places.
This morning I decided to buy HAYZ. It had moved up to .21 in premarket.
My plan as always is to wait for sell off and then buy. However rather then simply place a market order I got tricky. I ordered buy at .1901 but by the time my order was placed SP was .1910
I kept adjusting up and SP kept staying .002 or so over me. Finally I just went market and paid .23
SP has been stalled between .21 and .22 all day.
Moral of story don't quibble over a few fractions if the current price is acceptable.

Welcome to the power of the 4 decimal trade.... powerful it is...

[john]

Yes Burnt toast,that is why i favor buying the loans with taxpayer money and holding until housing prices rise and economy improves and then we can refinace these people out of the loans with stricter underwriting standards and the treasury(taxpayers) can make a nice profit to put directly towards Social secutrity fund...Buffet said in august if he had the money he would do this himself...

You are correct, Newman is correct. The investors holding the paper at the end of the day wins. That is why there was a easy way to take care of this whole mess without having massive bailouts. Just change the mark to market rules that were put into place after and because of ENRON. Then put the up tic rule back in. and a few other things and there would have been no need for the bailouts on the scale that they were.




P.S. because the government is the one holding much of this paper through owning much of the companies that now hold them is the only way we may not have the inflation that is coming. The problem is there is a cost to it NOW (because of the way the government did it using loans first instead of changing the rules back first), we become more like France.

[mogami]

Unfortunately I succumbed to what after many years of reflection believe was an addiction, not only to the action of watching the stock daily but also the dreams of someday making it rich. I remember sadly now when the stock broke $9.00. For one brief moment I actually thought of booking my tidy profits and calling it a victory. my mistakes.

Hi, Welcome, thanks for sharing. (It's like SIRI anonymous) Always collect your profits. The market is not PFM if you pay attention you can tell when a stock is going to go down. Sell and wait for it to reverse and re-buy (you'll increase your position)
I'm sure you know this. The point is know when to say enough (either up or down)
endeavor to persevere.

[Paratrooper_Rick]

look at the volume drop... it's like the calm before the storm....

[choirgirl]

Excellent post and if you take into consideration the possibility of a 10% or even 12% unemployment rate, combined with rising default in all kind of loans and credit card debt, you can kiss a few more banks good bye.
And one more thing, what about commercial real estate ? Isn't this the next shoe to drop ?

Not sure about the accounting of all this..but....I don't think banks can write down performing loans (loans that are not in default). The property value isn't determined until it is sold once again. Or, in a sense if it is appraised due to refi or foreclosure. But, if the loan is performing, there is no reason for the bank to assume the asset has declined or increased in value. But, I'm no banker (thank God!), nor accountant (double thank God!), but I think most of this mess is due to the repackaging of mortgages into large portfolios which were purchased by the huge merchant banks and investment houses and have become worthless because so many of those repackaged subprime notes are NON-performing loans. So, even though 95% of mortgages are performing, a huge percent of those are NOT subprime. Whereas the 5% of repackaged mortgages are mostly, if not all, subprime. They were attractive investments because of their potential high interest rate yields. But, since most of the people who "bought" houses with subprime loans didn't pay their monthly payments, especially as the ARMs adjusted up, the subprime packages of mortgages became worthless or near worthless.

[underway]

Hi, Welcome, thanks for sharing. (It's like SIRI anonymous) Always collect your profits. The market is not PFM if you pay attention you can tell when a stock is going to go down. Sell and wait for it to reverse and re-buy (you'll increase your position)
I'm sure you know this. The point is know when to say enough (either up or down)
endeavor to persevere.

Depends on what you ultimately are shooting for. Certainly the right strategy if you are not looking for homeruns, but are looking to string together singles and doubles. I love sports analogies!
In my case, I have a lot of SIRI shares, over 250,000 of those 'little' suckers, bought on the cheap a few weeks back. For me, I want to ride this out and see if it'll really fly. Don't want to sell and then re-purchase over and over because of the obvious....will reduce the total amount of shares as they hopefully get more expensive. I hope to keep as much of that original amount as I can in hopes of the grand slam. Long odds, but worth it because I got in cheap....not a ton of $ at risk. Could change my mind, but for now, holding pat and optimistic.