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  1. RickF is offline
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    Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 187
    03-26-2009, 01:05 PM #151
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratrooper_Rick View Post
    Glad you're out there - was hoping you were lurking....

    I am glad I upped the anty to LVL 2 access in my TDA account... it's taking a little time to get used to having so much info.

    now I understand why my quotescope wasn't working for SIRI before - since it was nasdaq stock - only non-nasdaq was working before my upgrade...

    I think we'll have a good EOD rise.... I can feel it.... now if I can just will it to happen...
    Hey Tropper dude! Put more effort into your "willing" - matter of fact - Killer - get yer dog to nip at Troopers ass to move him along!! I am sooooo tired of hearing "i told you not to buy that stock" - GOTTA get to .40!!! Then - i can look and just grin!!

  2. Brandon Matthews is offline
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    Joined: Aug 2008 Location: Northeast Posts: 721
    03-26-2009, 01:07 PM #152
    Now THIS is interesting. Look at the order book. Look at the .37 orders. All 2000 share orders. Every one of them in 15 second intervals.

    This creates the appearance of order imbalances...meaning the computer recognizes this as more sellers than buyers, and holds the price down.

  3. relmor2003 is offline
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    Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 1,937
    03-26-2009, 01:10 PM #153
    Quote Originally Posted by Brandon Matthews View Post
    I think the low volume theory is correct. In order to attract buyers, they gap the stock up, rather than lower the price. Seems kind of ass-backwards to me but that seems to be their MO. As long as demand exists in this range, it wont budge.
    Yes, its another form of retarded manipulation. As long as they fear DROPPING the price will result in feverish buying, they wont. Instead they will phase out buyers by gapping up, or just having it take off, out of nowhere, for no good reason. Lulling us to sleep, anyone getting sleepy.........

    WELL WAKE UP!!!!

  4. Brandon Matthews is offline
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    Joined: Aug 2008 Location: Northeast Posts: 721
    03-26-2009, 01:15 PM #154
    can anyone get a screenshot of this? Never mind...they just pulled all of them...bullshit!

  5. Paratrooper_Rick is offline
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    Joined: Feb 2009 Location: In the trenches taking aim Posts: 634
    03-26-2009, 01:17 PM #155
    Quote Originally Posted by RickF View Post
    Hey Tropper dude! Put more effort into your "willing" - matter of fact - Killer - get yer dog to nip at Troopers ass to move him along!! I am sooooo tired of hearing "i told you not to buy that stock" - GOTTA get to .40!!! Then - i can look and just grin!!
    Use the force I will.... to move us to .40..... never underestimate the power of the force....

  6. Newman is offline
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    Joined: Jun 2007 Location: Dallas Texas Posts: 1,162
    03-26-2009, 01:19 PM #156
    Relmor, I dont understand you. First you say this:
    Quote Originally Posted by relmor2003 View Post
    They are projecting forward.
    But then you say this:
    Quote Originally Posted by relmor2003 View Post
    It could be 60 cents, 80 cents, maybe. But you see, its not 100 or .95 cents. And most of their loans are currently valued there. Huge writedowns coming still, or they sell it and take the "real" loss.
    You say they are writing down because they are projecting forward, yet you say they are not writing down and huge losses are still ahead? That is crap. They are ALREADY writing down CURRENT values of houses and loans, even ones that are being paid in a timely manner.

    Now lets go with your analogy:
    Quote Originally Posted by relmor
    It would be like me saying my house is worth what I paid for it, in 2006, lets say 200k. Its current market price says it would sell for 100k. Thats a "paper loss" of 100k, Yes its not realized yet, sure. But your missing the point. The point is, your "debt" as a bank is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Right now thats around 0(no buyers, because they dont want to sell it more than they cant.
    No, that is not the same thing AT ALL because you are not being paid on the original value of the house like the banks are. Yes, you are right that there is a 100k PAPER loss, but you still owe the bank 200k, or did they also adjust your loan so that you only have to pay 100k back? Of course not. So that 100k in value they have in your loan, they will get paid back 200k if you make all of your payments, PLUS interest. So they have written your loan down by 100k, but will still get paid 200k plus.

    And YES, about 95% of people will pay off their loans. Default and Repossession rate is just about in line with the unemployment rate, right around 5%. Don't let the media get to you. Pay attention to the numbers and you can see through most of the crap.

  7. Brandon Matthews is offline
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    Joined: Aug 2008 Location: Northeast Posts: 721
    03-26-2009, 01:29 PM #157
    I'm getting ready to call another breakout....damn this thing is in a tight range. Draw a line for the uptrend on the daily chart. Then draw another line on the downslope. They meet at .3671. It's running out of room. Up or down, its going to have to decide soon. My moneys on up.

    ZERO Barrier will be hit at 2 pm. (for all armageddon fans. thats where and when the apex meets.)
    Last edited by Brandon Matthews; 03-26-2009 at 01:32 PM.

  8. benchwarmer is offline
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    Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 7
    03-26-2009, 01:30 PM #158

    Sirius addict

    After many months of watching and learning from you all, I finally felt the need to chime in. My story is not unlike many of you that read these posts, the only difference is my ending. At the time I started accumulating shares I owned my own business and was doing quite well for myself. I was an avid listener of Howard Stern and when he announced that he was moving to Sirius I was sold on the stock. I guess I was a little late to the game but I started buying large blocks at around $6.50 per share. Times were good the stock just kept rising and rising. The feeling of watching that ticker every day was intoxicating. I was always looking for the first quarter report after Stern was signed. I figured like most naive investors that the stock would pop to the low teens and I would make a small fortune for myself and my family (what a smart guy I was). Unfortunately I succumbed to what after many years of reflection believe was an addiction, not only to the action of watching the stock daily but also the dreams of someday making it rich. I remember sadly now when the stock broke $9.00. For one brief moment I actually thought of booking my tidy profits and calling it a victory. But what would happen when I awoke the next day and Sirius was not around? I swear that thought actually was the reason I did not sell. I was addicted period. There was no reality left, Sirius had consumed me. I missed my selling opportunity, shortly after the stock started tanking. Being the addict I was I looked at this as another opportunity to cash in and started buying larger blocks all the way down. I remember the day my life changed and Sirius left my life. It was a morning like many others. I awoke as usual, poured my coffee and sat down on my computer to get my Sirius fix. I opened my E-trade account and had the shock of my life. I had been margined out at $3.15. All of my hopes and dreams had evaporated with a margin call I could not answer. I never actually realized the gravity of the situation. I just kept buying and buying. I will not share the total dollar value or number of shares but I assure you it was substantial. I can tell you it took me years to get over that addiction. My hope for this post is that people see it and use it with their trading. Never forget the reason(s) you bought this stock. Always have a game plan and stick to it. Do not get lost in the dream world that this stock creates. Enough said. Fast forward to 6 months ago and here I am again. Only this time have lost my business, and am living paycheck to paycheck like many Americans. I took $1000 dollars which at this point feels like $500,000.00 in my former life and invested once again in the great specter that is now SiriusXm. I am so thankful to have found you all (relmor,sl62,brandon,etc..........). I know this post was long and most will pass right by it, but for those that it helps I am grateful that at least you can benefit from my mistakes.

  9. Dave Davis is offline
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    Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 60
    03-26-2009, 01:30 PM #159
    Market up 1.97%, SIRI up 1.90%. When did SIRI start trending the S&P? I guess when Mel was on the front page of Fortune this issue.

  10. relmor2003 is offline
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    03-26-2009, 01:32 PM #160
    Quote Originally Posted by Newman View Post
    Relmor, I dont understand you. First you say this:


    But then you say this:

    You say they are writing down because they are projecting forward, yet you say they are not writing down and huge losses are still ahead? That is crap. They are ALREADY writing down CURRENT values of houses and loans, even ones that are being paid in a timely manner.

    Now lets go with your analogy:


    No, that is not the same thing AT ALL because you are not being paid on the original value of the house like the banks are. Yes, you are right that there is a 100k PAPER loss, but you still owe the bank 200k, or did they also adjust your loan so that you only have to pay 100k back? Of course not. So that 100k in value they have in your loan, they will get paid back 200k if you make all of your payments, PLUS interest. So they have written your loan down by 100k, but will still get paid 200k plus.

    And YES, about 95% of people will pay off their loans. Default and Repossession rate is just about in line with the unemployment rate, right around 5%. Don't let the media get to you. Pay attention to the numbers and you can see through most of the crap.
    Banks are projecting forward that personal loans, car loans, and credit card loans WILL BE paid back at 100 cents on the dollar. They are writing down mortgage debt. They project forward the mortgage debt as being overvalued, hence they are writing down those loans, not any others. Were we differ is you think that the other loans are correctly valued. There is were I disagree. Yes, I know I still owe the bank 100k. I was trying to make an anaolgy to show how a person who do what the banks are doing. The banks arent writing down mortgage loan value because the price dropped by a "appraiser, or similar houses sold), they are assuming those loans wont be paid back AT ALL. Or not to fruition, and will default in the near future. So they tried to sell them. Found no buyers except for pennies on the dollar, so banks around a year ago were able to unload some of these mortgage backed secrutiies for around 40 cents on the dollar. This pissed off every bank in the world. You saw more writedowns after that happened. What could this bank sell a personal loan for? Or a car loan? Or credit card debt? Not at 100 cents, or .98. Most of these loans are still valued actually above 95%. They would probably get .60 cents on the open market for this debt right now. My guess. Maybe higher.

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