SIRI Intraday Updates for the Week of 3/16/09

[cos1000]

Look.... of course no one knows for sure what is going to happen with this stock on any given day at any given minute... but look at this stock and how it has traded today so far.... almost all of the volume, 38M shares, traded in the first hour..... nothing premarket until about 9:15 when .5M share showed up on the bid side ..... then boom of to the races and now at 10:50am the volume is gone.... look at a chart and map the volume.... this run is over for now until the last two hours of the day.... same shit just a different day and much better direction...... that's why I take a little off on a good run..... and I don't try to get back in on that day.... It has worked for me since we were at .062. The good news for all the longs (and I maintain a 2/3 Long position now at all times), is it has not retraced to the lows since the BK is off the table.....

My example of that is: I bought at .1902 Friday with money from selling at .1987 (momentum was building and I didn't want to be out), the .1987 was from shares bought at .1482, the .2452 sell this morning was from the .1902 buy on Friday. I now have a .2252 buy in for those shares I just sold...... I play this adjusting to momentum shown on level II.... it's not perfect but it works.... and like I said, I am long on 2/3 now at all times.... so if it makes a run and I'm out on my 1/3, Great..... I'll buy back in a new point higher in the future with my other 1/3...... On the other hand it hedges me from any pull backs and allows me some dry powder to get back on those pull backs..... Just though I'd share..... the hedge component keeps me from fearing taking the profits along the way....

[cos1000]

Cos.............. that' the way to trade. Now you're smokin. I jumped a little too early this morn. Sold 16,151 shares bought at .13 for .2298. Also sold 12,154 shares bought at .16 for.2398. Was adjusting my sells on the normal channel of 2 cents, and started to feel greedy, so felt I had to drop the hammer after so many up days in the market. Go figure that it breaks so far out of the channel on the upside today. Oh well, have 92,000 shares waiting to sell at .2549. { sound of music } ..... Oh happy days.... Oh happy daaaaays.............. ..killer.

nice job my friend.... the dog is on the hunt now...... let him run.....

[bananaz]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1261...o?source=yahoo

[relmor2003]

.25 cents is a pyschological barrier only. Only technical resistance on the stock right now, as it has cleared the 20 and 50 DMA's by a large percentage is .50 cents. The 200 DMA is the target now. Depending on how long it takes, probably cross it around .75-.80 cents. This would be the high end target price.

[Brandon Matthews]

RBC Issues Report On Sirius XM Radio
March 16, 2009 (9:45 am) Tyler Savery

rbc.JPGDavid Bank, an analyst from RBC Capital , issued a report which discussed the recent operating results published by Sirius XM Radio. The company has a conference call scheduled for Tuesday, March 17th, 2009.

REPORT EXCERPTS

4Q08 Revenue And EBITDA Beat, But Subs Miss By A Wide Margin; Guidance Withdrawn

Bank noted that Revenue And EBITDA Beat expectations, but also pointed to the subscriber numbers which he characterized as dismal. The analyst also noted some concern over the company guidance which he states were withdrawn, and that is an indicator of a tough operating environment.

Bank noted that Revenue beat the street because of increased ARPU, a metric that he attributes to some customers electing to pay for higher priced packages from the new tiered offerings (including the “best of” package), as well as better and earlier than expected realization of cost synergies, especially in sales and marketing. As a function of this, Sirius XM was able to post positive EBITDA.

The analyst noted that net subscriber additions about 83,000 fell well short of the 180,000 they were anticipating. Bank noted that indicating a tough auto and retail environment were contributing factors.

From an operating and cash standpoint Bank sees deal with Liberty Media and the release of $140mm from the MLB/NASCAR escrow accounts as events that should provide the company with ample capital to address all 2009 debt refinancing obligations. However, RBC sees the continued deterioration in the auto/consumer channels as reason to remain on the sidelines. RBC maintains a Sector Perform rating and has not assigned a price target.

Items of Note:

- 500K customers were on a tiered offering at YE2008, the vast majority of which are paying a higher price than the standard $12.99, leading to increased ARPU. Bank believes that management’s confidence in attaining adjusted EBITDA of $300mm+ in FY2009 implies continued improvement in ARPU from customer conversion to higher priced packages, and realization of cost synergies.

- RBC expects 388,000 net subscriber additions in FY2009 (vs. prior 1,500K estimate)

- RBC expects revenue of $2.6bn (vs. prior $2.7bn), with their FY2009 adjusted EBITDA estimate unchanged at $303mm.

Tyler Savery Position - Long Sirius XM Radio

[Demian]

Technical analysis is only a tool, but I think the top of this channel is closer to .30 than .25......

[relmor2003]

Bollinger band is overrated. Works better for short term trading, and stocks over $1. Moving averages are more important, and areas of heavy consolidation. The .32 to .36 cent buyers are in play soon. They will decide to get out at even, or take profits on a rise from there. This could come into play a bit. Retail investors will now act as a short, deflecting and shortening rises from here. Institutions, and big money wont sell till the fair price is reached, minimum. Retail investors now are the enemy. We want long term holders only, and I dont trust retail investors to act that way.

[learn to think]

We used to chip away at those $.01 walls with a hammer and chisel,now we're smashing them with a bulldozer...that $.25 wall is pretty thick though.

[Demian]

Prediction: SIRI breaks .25 and goes to .27 pronto......TODAY!

I think the top of this channel is closer to .30....

[relmor2003]

Recommend buy on any 2 cent drops. Hold core position here. Enough time from CC now to see how its trading. As mentioned, new metrics involved, new rules now. Treating it as an upchannel. Add on dips. No reason to sell at these levels. First planned sell now is at .32 cents, 1/5 position. Next target .50 cents. Then 200 DMA.