SIRI Intraday Updates for the Week of 3/09/09

[relmor2003]

So what do you guys that listened think? Was Mel Defensive or Offensive?

As far as Amobi asking about other deals: There was no way Mel was going to release any details. He said "Unless you want to ask about something specific in the deal, we selected the Liberty deal because it was the best deal."

Canceling guidance is nothing new since they did not give guidance during the merger process, but the EBITDA of OVER 300 million for 2009 is definately a positive. That means that as far as EBITDA goes, they will be adding over 600 million in positive EBITDA (this year was a loss of $277 million right?)

Yes, its the most important guidance to give. Not giving guidance on growth probably means what we have been fearing(brandon and me anyway) we will see negative subs for Q1. As for Q2 maybe with iphone app, ipod add, all great news, might go back to positiive.
They didnt want this news out yet.

[JohnnyIrishXM]

Mel Was positive,but i wish they went more into detail about IPHONE and DTV bundles.The used car market penetratio09n was very good to hear also,I think that is where the growth for subs must come from in 09.Plus retail has to improve 1000% to make 09 subs stay flat or grow at a modest %..

[JohnnyIrishXM]

It'll be interesting to see what COH is after 1Q with 500K subs signing up for best of?hoping it's around 5-600 mil...as Mel said CASH is king...great that MLB is paid up til 2010 and no more restricted cah req..

[MLSiri]

Overall, this was as good as to be expected considering the current recession-based economy, flagging auto sales, the media-fed BK threats, and the discretionary product designation. SXM took the best deal available (Liberty), baseball funding already covered through 2011, working to get baseball on Sirius channels, positive EBITDA for first time ever!!!, more than $300m EBITDA projected in 2009 (which means increased merger synergies, higher revenue and reduced operational costs), increased ARPS, Iphone app coming next Q, , Mirge now avaialble, focusing on the future. Maybe a Sirius XM Super Bowl ad next year?

Hey, what's not to like??

Pre-market in high .16s; over 1 million shares stacked up at .18.

[Wirestripper]

Thanks guys for the summary.

I logged in at 8 AM but did not consider the ET time zone. Missed the cast.....

Anyhoo, I expected it to be a bit defensive and contentious, and so it was apparently.

I think I'll just watch and wait as I made my decision when the Q came out. That decision paid off as my portfolio is up 20% in two days by freeing up my trading funds.

Thanks to all for the recap of the call.

[Newman]

A couple of things on cash flow:

They had $380 million at end of Q4.
They netted 65ish million from first part of financing with Malone. That brings us to $445 million-ish.
They do NOT have to pay MLB this year because they used the escrow funds to pay them for 2009 and 2010.

Now, cash flow AND subscribers will be negative for Q1 (my guess). The key metrics to watch here will be churn and EBITDA. They did not give guidance for subs or revenue (big disappointment), but increased their guidance for OVER $300 million ebitda positive for 2009.

This is HUGE. They know their subscriber numbers are going to suck. They know retail sucks. They know that the economy sucks, and yet the synergies from the merger will allow them to be EBITDA positive for the full year, even though on a quarterly basis they only hit it for the first time in Q4. This news is HUGE for long term.

[relmor2003]

A couple of things on cash flow:

They had $380 million at end of Q4.
They netted 65ish million from first part of financing with Malone. That brings us to $445 million-ish.
They do NOT have to pay MLB this year because they used the escrow funds to pay them for 2009 and 2010.

Now, cash flow AND subscribers will be negative for Q1 (my guess). The key metrics to watch here will be churn and EBITDA. They did not give guidance for subs or revenue (big disappointment), but increased their guidance for OVER $300 million ebitda positive for 2009.

This is HUGE. They know their subscriber numbers are going to suck. They know retail sucks. They know that the economy sucks, and yet the synergies from the merger will allow them to be EBITDA positive for the full year, even though on a quarterly basis they only hit it for the first time in Q4. This news is HUGE for long term.

I agree. I see that aspect from the Q4 filing. Mergers, cost cuttiing, but no growth projected for 09,. and they wont admit that. Will that work for them or against them...
We will see. Yes, our prediction for negative subs for Q1 will be true.

[Newman]

I logged in at 8 AM but did not consider the ET time zone. Missed the cast.....

The ET thing always screws me up... I was up at 6 to here this thing. I live in CST, it didnt come on until 7... wandering why no one else hadposted about it yet... then realized my mistake. LOL

[Sirius_Long_Hauler]

Sounds like nothing big is going to happen today either way for SIRI. So shareholders are back to the waiting game...? Is there even anything to look forward to right now, as we seem to all agree that Q1 is going to be horrible?

[sxminvestor]

somebody is putting 100 share bids in at over $ 12.00 , not .12 on Arca, really strange.


Anyone else seeing this on their level 2 - I'm on Etrade.