Originally Posted by Paratrooper_Rick
Very true. If I had happened to buy Siri at about $1 a share or more, I'd probably be pulling my hair out right now.
SIRIUS XM SATELLITE RADIO FORUM
Very true. If I had happened to buy Siri at about $1 a share or more, I'd probably be pulling my hair out right now.
In reviewing the 10Q I did my own calculations of subscriber growth for 2009 and I don't like the figures that I am getting. I am fairly new to the metrics of Sirius subscriptions and I want to make sure my numbers look right. I get (the assumed figures are in italics)
2009
750,000 Monthly Autosales (based on 9M Yearly projected)
58% OEM Penetration Rate (Assumed)
435,000 Monthly Autosales with OEM
45% OEM Conversion Rate (Assumed)
195,750 Gross Monthly OEM Additions
100,000 Gross Monthly Retails Additions (based on 1.2M Yearly)
295,750 Gross Monthly Sub Additions
19,003,856 Subscriber Base (as of 12/31/08)
295,750 Gross Monthly Sub Additions
19,299,606 Total Subscriptions prior to churn
1.8% Monthly Churn % (Assumed)
347,393 Monthly Churn Subs cancelled
18,952,213 Total Subscriptions after churn
(51,643) Monthly Net Subs Added (Lost)
From my review it looks like a net loss of about 50K subscribers a month in 2009 with the assumed figures above.
It appears that the issues are twofold. One is that the amount of gross sub additions (OEM + Retail) will decrease this year due to less retails and less auto's being sold (7.6M in 2006, 8.0M in 2007, 7.7M in 2008, 3.6M [295,750 X 12] projected for 2009)
The bigger issue seems that as the subscriber base grows the amount of cancelled subscriptions via churn grows. In short Sirius must start getting MORE gross additions to offset the higher amount of cancellations due a stable churn rate (1.7% to 1.8%) but for a higher subscription base. But instead it looks like due to decreased retail sales and especially decreased autosales the amount of gross additions is decreasing.
Please tell me I am wrong in my numbers as, honestly, I would like to be.
Marketing? What marketing? They rely on others. Two years ago at XMAS, I got two boom boxes, 3 starmates and car hook-ups for free, not to mention two more car adapters.
When is the last time that you saw a SIRI commercial on T.V.?
Last Christmas and in limited quantity and little offers.
When is the last time that you saw a SIRI life-time subscription offer on T.V.?? I haven't seen one, myself.
Marketing and public relations now suck at the very minimum. I realize that this is due to such a tight budget, but you have to advertise to make money. I only own three companies and have to advertise to make money..Yes, I hate paying for it, especially in a slow market, but it has to be done.
The meat is too close to the bone.
Bill
It's funny you said that because while I was praying for SIRI this evening, Jesus told me to drop a grand at $0.13 on E*Trade right away. When I asked Him why, he just said "Trust Me, My Child". So I did because well shoot, who am I to doubt good ol Jesus?
Last edited by Siriusly; 03-11-2009 at 02:04 AM.
Nice rants yesterday Brandon... just a portion of one.
and yet only 3 days ago, we had this gem from you:
Sirius Finally Living Up To Its Name
March 7, 2009 (5:56 pm) Brandon Matthews
Sirius is the brightest star in the night sky and it happens to be where Sirius Satellite Radio first got its name. As a broker, I would often look for quality story stocks. Sirius XM has just become every brokers dream. In shocking fashion that even Hollywood is now taking notice of, Sirius XM CEO Mel Karmazin has again cleaned up the mess he inherited as a result of massive debt obligations left behind by his predecessor.
You are funny man. I can get that you are pissed (pissed that you sold, or pissed about the company... not sure), but why would you write this absolutely glowing article on the 7th with all the doubt going in the conference call? It couldn't have been anything you felt at a deep level since you have just done a total 180 on a report that couldn't have been anywhere close to a surprise. Most of the level headed, realistic folks feel it was a pretty good report given circumstances. We'll see going forward.
You have good ideas occasionally, but you are way to bi-polar when it comes to this stock for me to take anything you write seriously... not that you care, I know.
Glad Cos, Relmor, sl62, Homer and others are here. Keeps this place sane with a lot of mostly non-emotional insight.
At least we have the Sirius iphone app to be released any day now, right Charles? :-)
I had another bullet in case this thing dropped which I still have, so I'm holding on to what I have and see what happens.
SoCalJoe, the only thing that jumps out at me is this above... here you mentioned the amounts of GROSS SUB ADDITIONS being 7.6M, then 8.0M, then 7.7M, then 3.6M... it appears you used the GROSS sub additions in the first 3 years' figures -- then for 2009 you used the GROSS additions, but you removed the promo subs that canceled from it. Your 295,750 monthly figure isn't actually a GROSS figure since it removes dropped promo subs. The previous years' figures you listed included those promo subs.
Using your figures, I come to GROSS ADDITIONS of 6.4M for 2009 (5.2M oem installs + 1.2M retail).
I'll point out that your figures also assume that there is no improvement in OEM sales from the current run rate... which is a conservative call, but could be warranted. Plus you also assume RETAIL sales of 1.2M -- which is a 25% drop from my estimate of what they did in 2008 (which was 1.6M)... again, a conservative call which may not be bad to consider. In both cases, the numbers are very rough and conservative. They could breakeven or have positive growth very easily too. We just don't know.
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it's up 11% in pre market. I'm sure it'll tank down to .12 but it just goes to show you that you never know with this stock. All the die hard regulars who sold 40-50% last night are probably kicking themselves. Where is your faith? I couldn't believe all ofyou "longs" jumping ship so quickly... well I can believe brandon doing it. And for what a few hundred dollars more? Nothing wrong with that necessarily but c'mon selling 50% of your shares hoping to buy back? I hope you never get the chance. Have a good day
Hey guys is there ant merit to this article.
The satellite radio operator reported a quarterly loss that
narrowed from the prior year and sales that were better than
expected. It added 82,945 subscribers in the quarter.
[ID:nN10545815] The stock surged 60 percent to 24 cents in premarket
trade.
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