Sirius just surprise reported 4Q - 10Q

[Brandon Matthews]

Well, I won't go as far as claiming a profit for the year -- but they were estimating having positive EBITDA for 2009. That could be possible. They just had positive Adj EBITDA numbers for Q4. We'll see.

As for subs... if the market in 2009 really is that bad and the OEM's do just 9.1 million in sales -- factor in a 58% penatration rate, gives you 5.27 million in OEM subs.

It looks like 2008 retail gross was around 1.5 total. If 2009 comes in at around 1.3 million, added to the 5.27 million at OEM -- that gives you nearly 6.6 million in gross additions.

Factor 2.77% monthly churn on 19.5 million average subs -- gives me churn out of 6.5 million.

So that Net's out a slight positive in subs for 2009... as a worst case scenario.----------

I challenge the 58% penetrarion rate.

Let's see what sirius says about penetration rates:


Subscribers. We ended the fourth quarter 2008 with 19,003,856 subscribers, an increase of 10% from the 17,348,622 subscribers as of December 31, 2007. Gross subscriber additions decreased about 27% in the fourth quarter of 2008 from the fourth quarter of 2007. Gross additions in our OEM channel were approximately 13% lower in the fourth quarter versus the prior year period, with higher production penetration failing to offset declines in auto sales. Auto sales fell 35% in the fourth quarter of 2008 to 2.5 million from 3.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2007. The decline in OEM gross additions was also accompanied by declines in retail gross additions. Deactivations for self-pay subscriptions remained relatively consistent at 1.8% per month; deactivations due to non-conversions of subscribers in pa

Subscribers. We ended 2008 with 19,003,856 subscribers, an increase of 10% from the 17,348,622 subscribers as of December 31, 2007. Gross subscriber additions decreased approximately 5% during 2008 from 2007. Domestic auto sales fell 18% to 13.2 million in 2008 from 16.1 million in 2007. The growth in OEM gross additions was offset by declines in retail gross additions. Deactivation rates for self-pay subscriptions were 1.8%; deactivations due to non-conversions of subscribers in paid promotional trial periods increased as production penetration rates increased.


Subscription growth is dependent, in large part, on sales and vehicle production by automakers. Automotive sales and production are dependent on many factors, including the availability of consumer credit, general economic conditions, consumer confidence and fuel costs. To the extent vehicle sales by automakers continue to decline, or the penetration of factory-installed satellite radios in those vehicles is reduced, and there is no offsetting growth in vehicle sales or increased penetration by other automakers, subscriber growth for the SIRIUS and XM services will be adversely impacted.

So you have sirius xm adding a whole 100k subs in all of 2009? And that's ok? And thats on the assumption of 58% penetration?

No gosh dang it! We are going negative. I dont want to go negative. I want everyone so pissed off the company will do anything to not go negative. (And for what its worth, we are forecasting 10 months from now)

[Brandon Matthews]

Why don't they activate all inactive receivers with some free content and pump those channels with ads talking about how much more is available to subscribers? Give people a taste. Drug dealers have used that method for years. Because it works.

Another great idea! Simply put, the radios are already in the cars. Sirius has paid for the chip subsidies. They basically paid for the radio to be installed in the car and then turned it off, never to be heard from again. And there are 20 million such radios on the road.

[trippingthespeculatingpos]

brandon the 4th quarter was ugly for everybody, if the economy gets better it will get better. We have liberty backing us, i bet we see a dtv bundling siri with their service whicj will most likely increase subs. I think car sales can only get better from here as well. either way the stock is going up tommorow, maybe not to a 1.00 but enough to make me some money.

[Far Away]

Brandon wrote: SIRI is moving into wrong direction. They should have done this and that.

Very good Brandon, when the ship was about to drown then the captain should be planning to open a football ground on the ship which should have brought lot of customers to watch the match.

SIRI subs before merger = 8m
SIR susbs after merger = 19m (within few months)

Can you give Mel+Mel at least another 2-3 months to prove.

[Lithium24]

Brandon predicted BK by the 17th. BK did not happen. Brandon was wrong.

[Brandon Matthews]

Brandon predicted BK by the 17th. BK did not happen. Brandon was wrong.

If the company keeps driving towards that cliff, the only thing I was wrong about was the date.

[Far Away]

Brandon, do you mean still we have time to jump-off the drowning ship?

[mydogniles]

brandon you are a schmuck...that's all i can say. in this environment, growth...any growth...is amazing. why the heck would anyone sign up for siri with the BK drum beating louder than ever. no doubt top line growth is critical, but this company can wage an equally effective battle by improving merger synergies and cutting costs (re-do talent contracts along with major sports). didn't Dish just report better earnings despite lost subs? there is more than one way to skin the cat my friend. i would agree that if the economic outlook does not improve then siri will be challenged to live by cost cutting alone. but i think we have to look at today's environment as incredibly difficult, and more importantly, TEMPORARY. Auto sales will improve!!! I agree that Mel needs to "improve" the model, but it's not like the Enterprise is going up in smoke anytime soon. Your comments remind me of the very emotional lead up to your prediction of BK. You're over reacting again...and that's what make you a schmuck. Does anyone realize that the merger is less than a year old. These guys haven't even come close to hitting their stride yet. Everyday, until Liberty stepped in, has been a challenge to survive. Strategic initiatives haven't had the light of day yet. And cash has been king so they haven't had the chance to market the product at all. SURVIVAL came first. Freak out all you want Brandon, cause that's what you're doing...again...but the calmer approach her is continued cost cutting, developing new alternative revenue streams via the internet, leverage the liberty partnership, hang in there until autos regroup..and this thing will be fine. it just won't happen overnight...but the "going in the wrong direction" stuff is crap. just a good company facing tough market conditions like every other company out there today....

[SiriusBuzz]

Im thrilled with the earnings report, absolutely thrilled, brandon and charles are never happy, probably because they have been riding this stock for way too long.

My happiness has nothing to do with the stock. The technology is stale. I have been a subscriber for years and have not been excited by anything they have done. I am still using my sportster 3 that I got for xmas years ago. The only reason I stick around is because I listen for 6+ hours per day and I know how good the content is.

Other people who aren't yet subscribers don't know how good the content is and have no good reason to get into the service. This is not a matter of opinion... as I said, the only stuff left at my local CC on their last day before closing in the audio section was satellite radio receivers. No one cares man... there were no ipods or any apple products left for that matter.

I had a SATRAD antenna out my on campus appartment window for years at college and I told everyone how great it was... I never heard any of them mention that they signed up. Now ask me how many people I knew who didnt have an ipod. There is nothing sexy about satellite radio and until that changes... they are going to hang at around 19 million.

[Sirius_Long_Hauler]

Brandon, can I ask why you are suddenly so negative on this stock? It seems you have done a complete 180 in the past week. The economy, along with auto sales, are in the toilet and Sirius still manages to grow. They are adjusted income positive for the first time EVER. And most importantly, Liberty has prevented BK for at LEAST the next 2 years, giving Mel time to build on the company's remarkable progress.

At this time, we need all the help we can get, and it certainly doesn't help that you are spouting doom and gloom all over this forum now.