Sirius just surprise reported 4Q - 10Q

[sxminvestor]

2009 will be even better as we wont have merger related costs, i think if we stayed flat with subs we could still post a profit.

If we want this stock to move, we need sub growth or else the revenues will stall. They need to at least add 1 million this year and then hopefully 1.5 - 2 in 2010.

[john]

So you still think that they're going to LOSE 2 million subscribers this year?



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homer are you trying to trap him or what. He messed up in his calculation and instead of just admitting it he trys to defend it. He cant admit that he should have said that they may lose subscriber this year instead of say a number such as 2 million.

[sxminvestor]

Well, I won't go as far as claiming a profit for the year -- but they were estimating having positive EBITDA for 2009. That could be possible. They just had positive Adj EBITDA numbers for Q4. We'll see.

As for subs... if the market in 2009 really is that bad and the OEM's do just 9.1 million in sales -- factor in a 58% penatration rate, gives you 5.27 million in OEM subs.

It looks like 2008 retail gross was around 1.5 total. If 2009 comes in at around 1.3 million, added to the 5.27 million at OEM -- that gives you nearly 6.6 million in gross additions.

Factor 2.77% monthly churn on 19.5 million average subs -- gives me churn out of 6.5 million.

So that Net's out a slight positive in subs for 2009... as a worst case scenario.



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They really need to spur growth and add 1 million in 2009. I think it is very plausable considering they can sell cheaper subscriptions and the internet strategy is a big wild card. We could also get an upward surprise of an additional million OEM's manufactured & surprise upside on penetration rates.

20 Million is the number they must hit by end of 2009 - minimum !

[sxminvestor]

homer are you trying to trap him or what. He messed up in his calculation and instead of just admitting it he trys to defend it. He cant admit that he should have said that they may lose subscriber this year instead of say a number such as 2 million.

Everybody knows the truth, so his stock with us has gone down tremendously, further than Siri.

Should have just come clean and admit it was a flawed calculation - we're all human and make mistakes.

[john]

What I dont get is why all the pissing and moaning hey guys 1.8% churn. I know that is alot less then many were thinking.


sxminvestor, Exactly I mean I was way off on my projection of FCF positive. The reason is I didnt think the cost from the merger were still going to be that much. I was wrong, homer was right (sure hes a bastard) but he was right.

[RMAN]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Far Away View Post
Brandon - How easily you mentioned that company is moving into wrong direction.

Everyone knows the 4Q results of giants like GE, Toyota so, you mean they are also moving into wrong direction?
Dude... they had negative retail. Is that the right direction?
__________________
Charles LaRocca
SiriusBuzz Founder

For starters the channel shake up and the news saying they are going bankrupt.

Did I forget a recession!

You had people jump ship, possible investors after they sold at 0.05.

Dude every company is having problems now.

I look at it this way, people will have to buy cars sooner rather then later.

We could have a big swing in subs from the auto!

[BuSeeAir]

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Some of the biggest news today-the SEC may reinstitute the uptick rule. This will cut back on some of the shorting.

[Brandon Matthews]

So you still think that they're going to LOSE 2 million subscribers this year?

If the auto industry continues its decline, I certainly do think so. Reuters reports that they added only 82,945 net new subs in quarter.

And that was Q4. Historically their best quarter. Auto sales declined even further in January and still further in February. No one predicts that it will recover before the fall at the very least.

The business model is flawed. It cannot (that's right, I said CAN NOT) survive on its current course. Drastic change must occur. If the company insists on not promoting its overpaid talent and relying solely on oem penetration, then yes Homer, a 2 million sub loss for the 2009 year will occur.

[SIRI4LIFE]

Brand you smoking that gooooooood s%%t again huh?No advertising, threat of bk for months and they still grew with existing model. TIME WILL TELL!

[KingFreep]

The business model is flawed. It cannot (that's right, I said CAN NOT) survive on its current course. Drastic change must occur. If the company insists on not promoting its overpaid talent and relying solely on oem penetration, then yes Homer, a 2 million sub loss for the 2009 year will occur.

Why don't they activate all inactive receivers with some free content and pump those channels with ads talking about how much more is available to subscribers? Give people a taste. Drug dealers have used that method for years. Because it works.