SIRI Intraday Updates for the Week of 3/09/09

[sl62]

guys,

i gotta tell you its nice to have such intelligent, thoughtful talent out there on which to rely for great feedback and advice. to all the regulars...thank you. i take a little pride in gathering my own info, processing what I read out here, and making my own decisions, but there is always the self doubt in play and that's when this board really comes in handy. you get all different opinions to either question your own, or gain additional confidence in what you are doing. i really appreciate all of you and the honest effort to help each other.

i believe in this company, more than the stock, but someday the 2 will come together and i plan to be there. there are still many obstacles to overcome before siri moves up to the levels we all hope for. will be several quarters at least before internet revenue stream produce so for now we are still tied to oem/auto and that means we languish for a while. but i'm looking for us to get to .25 as a new base by june/july. doesn't sound like much when many of us longs are in much higher, but it almost double where we are today and that's what matters.

good luck to all tomorrow...might be a nice little pop in pre and opening bell, but don't get greedy. we still have plenty of challenges ahead before the "big" move...

very eloquently said my friend...see all in the AM..

[Joeboo1]

I've calmed down a bit from the initial scare, and am looking at the numbers more closely. Am I correct in thinking that the numbers are NOT as bad as people are making it seem? Bottom line, all the numbers are still increasing, their revenue is up, ARPU is up, net income is up, subs are up, nothing really has decreased. In this economy, that's a LOT more than some companies can say. Here's to hoping the street is understanding tomorrow (fat chance).

Don't think this has been posted yet. But your analysis seems to be correct
http://news.radio-online.com/cgi-bin/$rol.exe/headline_id=b11446

[Sirius_Long_Hauler]

Tyler, if you are reading this, I think I am not alone when I hope you are writing an article that outlines the many POSITIVES of today's release, to help counter the inevitable onslaught of bash articles.

The fact that Sirius has achieved positive adjusted income for the first time in history is FANTASTIC news, and I hope missing estimates by a frickin' penny does not overshadow this important milestone.

[JohnnyIrishXM]

Don't think this has been posted yet. But your analysis seems to be correct
http://news.radio-online.com/cgi-bin/$rol.exe/headline_id=b11446

Excellent find Joeboo,this is the kind of intelligent reporting by this csite that we need and deserve..They see the big picture,not the here and now..

Good find!!!!

[cos1000]

Tyler, if you are reading this, I think I am not alone when I hope you are writing an article that outlines the many POSITIVES of today's release, to help counter the inevitable onslaught of bash articles.

The fact that Sirius has achieved positive adjusted income for the first time in history is FANTASTIC news, and I hope missing estimates by a frickin' penny does not overshadow this important milestone.

SLH,
Bashing the Q4 is pointless IMHO.... The BK scare made it sound that with their dependence on the OEM channel and the autos doing so badly that the COH and subs in general would be net negative... The fact is, as you know, other than net retail being negative, everything else was up in a very down quarter... What's to bash?? This is why Malone and Liberty got on board.... there will be better days ahead... Be careful of paying to much attention to the retail in the 4Q or even Q1, 09, because the company missed the product cycle completely for the past holiday season due to the FCC merger delay. Look for a new product delivery beginning with Fathers day and progressing into the 2009 Holiday season befor retail gets back on track with WiFi products fot the home and on the go.... This isn't the end of it.... Its a new beginning....

[Koop]

It's no wonder retail would be down with all the doom and gloom news about Siri possibly going BK....Who in their right mind would spend any money on a radio or, for that matter, pay a year ahead for a service that "THE WORLD" thinks won't exist tomorrow. Pheww.. retail will increase..don't worry

[dread]

http://news.radio-online.com/cgi-bin/$rol.exe/headline_id=b11446


Sirius XM Posts First-Ever Positive Pro-Forma Earnings

Sirius XM Radio posted full year 2008 pro forma revenue of $2.44 billion up 18% over $2.06 billion in 2007. Total subscriber count gained 10% to more than 19 million from 17.3 million. Q4 pro forma average revenue per subscriber (ARPU) grew to $10.60 from $10.42 a yhear earlier. The monthly self-pay customer churn rate was 1.8% in Q4, up from with 1.7% in 2007.

Fourth quarter 2008 pro forma revenue grew 16% to $644 million as compared to $558 million. Subscriber acquisition costs (SAC) per gross subscriber addition was $70 in the fourth quarter, an improvement of 16% over the $83 during the same period in 2007.

Sirius XM reported a positive pro forma earnings growth of $31.8 million as compared with a pro forma adjusted loss of $224.1 million in 2007.

"In the fourth quarter 2008, the company's first full quarter of combined operations, Sirius XM made remarkable financial progress," said CEO Mel Karmazin. "For the first time in company history, we reached positive pro forma adjusted income from operations of $32 million, as compared with a loss of $224 million one year ago." (03-10-09)

[JohnnyIrishXM]

Ah report:alot of shares for ah IMHO

After Hours
Last: $ .157 After Hours
High: $ .16
After Hours
Volume: 2,572,910 After Hours
Low: $ .144

After Hours
Time (ET) After Hours
Price After Hours
Share Volume
19:59 $ .157 9,854
19:59 $ .157 37,531
19:58 $ .157 2,800
19:58 $ .157 400
19:56 $ .15 500
19:55 $ .151 3,000
19:55 $ .1518 85,000
19:55 $ .152 1,000
19:55 $ .1523 195,000
19:55 $ .154 5,360
19:55 $ .154 10,000
19:55 $ .154 10,000
19:55 $ .155 67,000
19:55 $ .155 13,000
19:55 $ .156 84,500
19:55 $ .156 9,000
19:55 $ .1562 8,000
19:55 $ .157 9,140
19:52 $ .15 5,000
19:43 $ .15 343
19:42 $ .15 18,000
19:42 $ .15 15,365
19:41 $ .15 100
19:41 $ .15 29,900
19:38 $ .15 2,000
19:37 $ .15 5,000
19:35 $ .15 5,000
19:29 $ .15 4,200
19:28 $ .15 3,565
19:28 $ .15 12,435
19:26 $ .15 5,000
19:25 $ .1523 5,000
19:24 $ .146 1,950
19:24 $ .15 3,050
19:24 $ .145 6,950
19:23 $ .146 5,000
19:20 $ .144 5,000
19:19 $ .144 5,000
19:19 $ .145 900
19:19 $ .144 3,757
19:19 $ .144 343
19:18 $ .145 700
19:18 $ .144 4,300
19:16 $ .145 5,000
19:16 $ .145 5,000
19:10 $ .146 13,000
19:10 $ .145 2,000
19:07 $ .146 550
19:04 $ .145 12,300
19:01 $ .1441 20,000

[Sirius_Long_Hauler]

SLH,
Bashing the Q4 is pointless IMHO.... The BK scare made it sound that with their dependence on the OEM channel and the autos doing so badly that the COH and subs in general would be net negative... The fact is, as you know, other than net retail being negative, everything else was up in a very down quarter... What's to bash??

I fully agree, but the media absolutely LOVES to put this stock down and they WILL find a way. The problem with this stock is that it is very emotional, and doesn't always trade as it should based on the fundamentals. This is why I'm hoping we see some articles highlighting the positives, and I see that there are already a few out there (thank you everyone for posting them here). I'm starting to feel better about tomorrow!

Also, I saw Greg Maffei's interview on CNBC and it was really encouraging!

[tucknroll]

Looks like another early morning for me... that'll be 0600 Mountain Time....

Hopefully we'll get a GOOD surprise out of it ...

early wed and thur, annnnd here we go again!!!