SIRI Intraday Updates for the Week of 3/09/09

**relmor2003** · 03-10-2009, 06:09 PM

My sub estimate was off by 200k, which would account for the .08 cent loss vs. .07 cent loss. Churn rate in these times was acceptable, given condition and the retail confusion given the merger. COH is not surprising, right around where we thought. Nothing in this report is surprising so far. R/S language is a typical warning, and would have to be included.
Sorry, i see now, they took 15 million in a writedown for XM, I said zero, but thats not far off, and the loss of ther merger acquisitions. Overall, I am disappointed by the sub total, but I think we knew it was going to be around 19.2 to 19.4 in the best case scenario anyway. They added subs for the year, just at a slower rate, and lowered costs to acquire new subs. Raised ARPU.

**sl62** · 03-10-2009, 06:10 PM

Originally Posted by cos1000

http://investor.sirius.com/kit.cfm

Here's a link to the 10K: I'm off to explore it myself....

Looks like everyone's pouring over the filing LOL. Eerily quiet on my board. Bid's holding @ .1513...Damnnnnnn!! Would have been great to follow Maffei on CNBC with a BEAT...We'd be at .20 right now...

**LittleTrader** · 03-10-2009, 06:11 PM

pfft. Check this out.....

"Our business might never become profitable.
As of December 31, 2008 we had an accumulated deficit of approx 9.7 B

We expect our cumulative net losses to grow as we make payments under various contracts, incur marketing and subscriber acquisition costs and make interest payment on existing debt. If we are unable ultimately to generate sufficient revenues to become profitable and generate positive cash flow, either or both of the companies could default on their commitments and there is a risk that SIRI, XM, or both, would be unable to make the required payments on their respective indebtedness.

Demand for our services may be insufficient for them to become profitable.

We cannot estimate with any certainty whether consumer demand for the Sirius and XM service will be sufficient for us to continue to increase the number of subscribers to the services. Our satellite radio services have experienced a significant decrease in new subs from retail subs and most new subs growth has come from automakers, many of which have experienced recent and dramatic decreases in sales.

**trippingthespeculatingpos** · 03-10-2009, 06:12 PM

wow cant believe you guys are selling

**sl62** · 03-10-2009, 06:13 PM

Originally Posted by sl62

Looks like everyone's pouring over the filing LOL. Eerily quiet on my board. Bid's holding @ .1513...Damnnnnnn!! Would have been great to follow Maffei on CNBC with a BEAT...We'd be at .20 right now...

dip down to .15 bid. I just can't see this thing holding up tomorrow. If we don't revisit .12 on this at least in the morning, then nothing is equal...

**trippingthespeculatingpos** · 03-10-2009, 06:15 PM

Originally Posted by LittleTrader

pfft. Check this out.....

"Our business might never become profitable.
As of December 31, 2008 we had an accumulated deficit of approx 9.7 B

We expect our cumulative net losses to grow as we make payments under various contracts, incur marketing and subscriber acquisition costs and make interest payment on existing debt. If we are unable ultimately to generate sufficient revenues to become profitable and generate positive cash flow, either or both of the companies could default on their commitments and there is a risk that SIRI, XM, or both, would be unable to make the required payments on their respective indebtedness.

Demand for our services may be insufficient for them to become profitable.

We cannot estimate with any certainty whether consumer demand for the Sirius and XM service will be sufficient for us to continue to increase the number of subscribers to the services. Our satellite radio services have experienced a significant decrease in new subs from retail subs and most new subs growth has come from automakers, many of which have experienced recent and dramatic decreases in sales.

thats just to cover there ass, its in the risks section where they go through the million possibilities that could go wrong. I think people are nt seeing ahead of 2008 when u can remove all those bs merger related costs.

**Paratrooper_Rick** · 03-10-2009, 06:15 PM

Originally Posted by sl62

Looks like everyone's pouring over the filing LOL. Eerily quiet on my board. Bid's holding @ .1513...Damnnnnnn!! Would have been great to follow Maffei on CNBC with a BEAT...We'd be at .20 right now...

Yep - I'm thinking every one of us just either pulled it up and we're still reading or we've downloaded it....

I've been pasting excerpts from specific sections into the 10K thread....

**OldDruid** · 03-10-2009, 06:16 PM

Originally Posted by sl62

Old Druid...

Agreed. I still have half my shares for any weird pop in this miss. Does happen sometimes. Guidance would be one reason. This was my .11/.12 holding. I still haven't read the filing yet. But this kind of sneak release of is never a good sign. What happened to March 17?? Although I may recall them saying they might release actual report before CC (17th) though. Do you remember that?

If they said it I didn't hear it. AH seems to be holding 0.15 with no problem under descent volume. I am betting that a miss will cause a dip, perhaps only for a short duration, but a possible opportunity, I'll be ready!

**sl62** · 03-10-2009, 06:16 PM

Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos

wow cant believe you guys are selling

tripping...

Just working the possible dip here. Still have 50% of my holding. This SP is just too unstable to keep yo-yoing...trying to cover the bases...

**trippingthespeculatingpos** · 03-10-2009, 06:17 PM

why in gods name should we stay at this bk price? THIS IS A BK PRICE! well i hope u are happy giving away your shares for next to nothing. now u can sit back and pray the price goes down like all the haters do.

SIRI Intraday Updates for the Week of 3/09/09

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