so nobodies got a counter argument here? lol
SIRIUS XM SATELLITE RADIO FORUM
so nobodies got a counter argument here? lol
Apparently not - when I started this post I had no idea it would go this long -Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos
I think the bottom line I'm seeing from all of the posts today is..... (wait for it..)
We all have a dozen or so theories...... about what will happen to SIRI in the coming months.... R/S, BB, Monday, CC on the 17th, SP in a year.....
At least we are past BK and free to relax and theorize a bit... it's kinda nice....
>>Anything before that will be a disaster and I will sell.<<mogami: Liberty's 40% is not calcualted until they decide to convert, meaning that Sirius can do what ever they want to the outstanding shares, because it will not change anything. Liberty will still get exactly 40% when converted.
Regardless, I don't think they can buy back shares because of debt covenants, so the discussion about buy backs is mute.
As I said before, I think the RS will be done, but not until the company and the economy is improving. Anything before that will be a disaster and I will sell.
Right on...and so will a boatload of others..Mel knows this. So no reverse until about Oct or I think Nov. Rev is a certainty though just based on his current authority expires in Dec. Plus it makes sense to get the SP higher to create a new perception of the company. So that's a done deal. But not in a smoke and mirrors way as some company's try to do (which then brings the short sharks out immediately on the other side). As Newman says though, timing will be critical and should wait until company has a few more cylinders firing to ensure positive environment for rev. Only trouble is for us, they will have to announce this action presumably at least 60 days before execution. So sometime in August or right after Labor Day, it's announced. I would advise all to keep an eye on your investments at that time. I will probably leave 1/3 in and take 2/3 out. In the interim we will have plenty of opps to be in and out a few different times if desired. I think based on actual valuation, most here believe this SP is worth about a buck (and I agree). I also think adding in the spec component into the equation could wind up driving the SP even a little higher with the right positive conditions (toward merger revalue territory). But when rev is announced, she will crash kind of hard (de rigeur). By rev time probably looking at .40 - .60. IMHO...
The problem I have with this is...
Karmazin's cost basis is $3.90. For him to "make his money back", Sirius XM will have to go up 2,685%.
If there are 6.36BB fully diluted shares, then the price will have to go from $0.14 to $3.90 for him to breakeven; but if they did a 1:10 split, then they will need to go from $1.40 to $39.00... that's still a 2,685% increase.
IMHO, the stock has just as much a chance of going from $1.40 to $39.00, as it does from $0.14 to $3.90... but even that is remote, given the size of the EV that you're talking about at that point. A $24BB EV on a company is a huge company -- and it had better be profitable.
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homer i dont think it will go that high with the current float, im hoping after 3 years the company will be profitable and have its debt paid and then they can start buying back stock. That is when we can break out over mels avg. possibly 5 years or so. as i said .75-1.50 current float, hold that range while we build up cash and pay down debt, then start buying back stock. THEN we can imagine prices over 3 dollars or so.
Last edited by trippingthespeculatingpos; 03-08-2009 at 06:31 PM.
Hi, Sirius is not going to buy back stock. They still have 3 billion+ in debt. They will be paying off debt at least till 2014. Long before then they will execute the R/S removing the need to ever buy back stock.
So the real question is will they ever be debt free and if so what will they do with their profits?
will see, i think you give them serious time to grow their cash they can pay debt off by 2012, if they are thinking of doing an rs im sure they will bring it up on the 17th. Its not a matter of being debt free its just a matter of having it manageable.
Last edited by trippingthespeculatingpos; 03-08-2009 at 06:41 PM.
not as brainy as most on here, but it seems to me that as long as siri maintains or improves FCF (especially in this environment) coupled with debt no longer a major holdback (for now), upward movement in the ps will happen without having to conduct a r/s near term....of course two days ago i thought otherwise.....the 17th should give everyone a better idea of what to expect if and only if mel gives clear guidance to sh's the [B]plan[B]going forward....till then i plan to enjoy the ride for a brief moment.....just my 2cents worth...be nice even us idiots have feelings
Quick question,
To me it seems that the more "savvy" investors here are almost "pushing" for an R/S or at least think it is necessary.
Obviously I am against an R/S and I think it is not needed. This stock IMO has never really traded on fundamentals, for the most part it has been pure speculation. IMO positive speculation will pick up and ramp the price up again. At least to levels that SIRI won't have to worry about delisting and beyond.
I understand everything you guys have said about how the float needs to be reduced, help stave off manipulation, increase buying by funds etc...
Basically my question is, do you guys see the R/S as a benefit to you as a shareholder, and could you help me understand how it could benefit me directly if at all? To me SIRI can still have the price turned around on it's own, I see the R/S as nothing but negative. I own 90,000 shares and I am more than happy to see this thing go to 2 or 3 dollars in the next 1-3 years! If the R/S happens I own significantly less shares "limiting future earning potential" and run the risk of this stock being beaten back down. I will sell if the R/S happens and rethink my position.
If anyone could help me understand how this could benefit me direcrtly as a shareholder I would be grateful!
Now I will stop posting about the R/S because really only time will tell.
Sincerely Unsophisticated SIRI investor
Last edited by Hopeful; 03-09-2009 at 01:04 AM.
IMHO with this dilution and amount of shares it is too easy for MM's(market movers) to artificially keep the stock price low.the partial reason i beleive is because most experienced investors buy or sell with limit orders,and with todays economy and the average or below average investor's 401 K's and IRA's depleted,there are hardly anymore Market orders...it is the market orders that drive up the price appreciatively MHO...this is why we need the uptick rule back in play..A MUST HAVE...but i personally am not in favor of a R/S at all or if we have to do it,not until a profit and cost certainty are forcasted with reasonably assured market conditions,and definitely not until it gets to at least .60 with a 1-10 R/S only...hope this helps.. Basically look at it as you are paying at least $1.45 for every share you buy from now on with todays price at .145..also every share you bought previous times ten..it's all about getting a 1-10 bagger. With R/S it is removed somewhat...Quick question,
To me it seems that the more "savvy" investors here are almost "pushing" for an R/S or at least think it is necessary.
Obviously I am against an R/S and I think it is not needed. This stock IMO has never really traded on fundamentals, for the most part it has been pure speculation. IMO positive speculation will pick up and ramp the price up again. At least to levels that SIRI won't have to worry about delisting and beyond.
I understand everything you guys have said about how the float needs to be reduced, help stave off manipulation, increase buying by funds etc...
Basically my question is, do you guys see the R/S as a benefit to you as a shareholder, and could you help me understand how it could benefit me directly if at all? To me SIRI can still have the price turned around on it's own, I see the R/S as nothing but negative. I own 90,000 shares and I am more than happy to see this thing go to 2 or 3 dollars in the next 1-3 years! If the R/S happens I own significantly less shares "limiting future earning potential" and run the risk of this stock being beaten back down. I will sell if the R/S happens and rethink my position.
If anyone could help me understand how this could benefit me direcrtly as a shareholder I would be grateful!
Now I will stop posting about the R/S because really only time will tell.
Sincerely Unsophisticated SIRI investor
not an expert just my opinion..
Last edited by JohnnyIrishXM; 03-09-2009 at 01:45 AM.
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