So anyone here think Brandons article has NOTHING to do with not Holding .13 today?

[relmor2003]

The market will price in this dilution -- you're not talking about a 10-20 or 80 million in new dilution from Preferred... you're talking about 2.5BB new shares. The market will account for this in its valuation of Sirius.


-------

Market sssmarket. Whats your fair value for SiriusXM right now, Homer? Lay it on the line. With the dilution. SP ==________

Mine is .70 cents.
You?
In fact Id like to hear everybodies fair SP right now, based on information from this date only, and prior. Account for 6.88 shares outstanding. Market cap right now is____________

I say its around 4 billion. And thats being conservative. Very very conservative. Why I dont exactly feel the R/S is 100 percent guaranteed. I think it will happen though.

[john]

relmar, Give the company time to get the synergies from the merger. I'll say it again people it has not even been 2 quarters reported yet, since the merger. You cant expect everything to happen overnite.

[homer985]

roger that I'm tracking you now. Your saying even though they have not actually issued any new common the fact that they can convert anytime is the same as far as impacting SP. I don't see how it changes market cap prior to actual conversion. (Are preferred shares calculated in Market Cap or just when they represent potential 40 percent of float

Because Preferred Shares aren't normally calculated into Market Cap, it normally would have no impact on the Cap. However, Preferred shares ARE included into the calculation of Enterprise Value -- and the EV did significantly increase today. The EV = the Market Cap, plus the debt, plus the value of the Preferred (which can only be estimated by converting them to common first, because they are not $$ figure but a share figure).

My reference to Market Cap in this thread wasn't based on CURRENT shares, but by the "Fully Diluted Market Cap", which includes the yet to be converted Liberty stake -- which are now registered and held by Liberty. The market will take into account these yet to be converted shares -- because of the abundance of them and what it will do to the sharecount.


-------

[relmor2003]

relmar, Give the company time to get the synergies from the merger. I'll say it again people it has not even been 2 quarters reported yet, since the merger. You cant expect everything to happen overnite.

O I agree with you John, 100 percent. I am just trying to get some newer investors a target price. Something for everyone to think about. I know its not a quick process, believe me. But now that we understand more, and the dilution can actually be brought into the market cap, lets assume full dilution, and get some opinions on fair value, as of today. Take away all the bs, and get down the bones of the matter.

[mogami]

Hi, Thanks now I think I got it.

[sl62]

Market sssmarket. Whats your fair value for SiriusXM right now, Homer? Lay it on the line. With the dilution. SP ==________

Mine is .75 cents.
You?
In fact Id like to hear everybodies fair SP right now, based on information from this date only, and prior. Account for 6.88 shares outstanding. Market cap right now is____________

I say its around 4 billion. And thats being conservative. Very very conservative. Why I dont exactly feel the R/S is 100 percent guaranteed. I think it will happen though.

Again..

These are all fundemental/nominal values. SIRI has been in the dog house. Spec money may well now return en masse (over time), thereby getting the stock back trading on emotion and hope (the pure spec play it is). That's our best case scenario for steady max pop over the next several months. My take is if we get a few new positive analyst reports, good Q's, better market, and enough saturated buying in spurts to overtake the 2014 hedge at times, we could well exceed fair market value...maybe back up to 1.50 before RS as a high. Regardless if we get back over a buck or not, Mel still reverses this year because he has to use his authorization...but later on this year. IMHO...

[asm610]

Market sssmarket. Whats your fair value for SiriusXM right now, Homer? Lay it on the line. With the dilution. SP ==________

Mine is .75 cents.
You?
In fact Id like to hear everybodies fair SP right now, based on information from this date only, and prior. Account for 6.88 shares outstanding. Market cap right now is____________

I say its around 4 billion. And thats being conservative. Very very conservative. Why I dont exactly feel the R/S is 100 percent guaranteed. I think it will happen though.

I am saying about 6 billion ...don't forget they have Brand New Satellite not launched yet and the licensing, improving technology, as well as improving sub based busines model ....95 cents share.

[john]

Homer I also agree that there is noway Brandon had that effect on the PPS. I have stated it myself. That he doesn't even have that much pull here, much less the street.

relmar if some jackass could not figure that out for himself about Brandons article then he should just put his money in a money market fund or CDs or maybe just the bank or under the matress and stay the hell out of the market all together. HUMMMMM actually that may not be a bad idea.

[homer985]

With the current economy and current state of the OEM's -- I think that $3BB could be doable by the end of Summer. Which would be about $0.44... but that is under current conditions. If the economy improves then more -- but if it worsens, then less (obviously).

I think $6BB would be in a year with the economy rebounding, the OEM's rebounding and the synergies fully realized... that takes it near $1. If growth comes back at a manageable cost on top of this? Then perhaps a $8-9BB MC down the line.

If Sirius ever hopes to get the pps to a price where Funds can buy it and really invest in it -- then they have to get the pps above $5. To do that, they need to do a 1 for 25 split this year. Yes, that drastic. That would take the number of fully diluted shares down to 272MM -- which would make the stock very difficult to manipulate. While leaving enough liquidity in it to keep it attractive to traders. While the current pps would only increase to $3.50 initially -- with growth, it would likely go above $5 on its own as that would only be a $1.3BB market cap. A $5BB MC at that sharecount would grow the pps to $18.

The RS has to happen with this fully diluted sharecount now.

-------

[asm610]

Something to consider:

Preferred Stock
Preferred stock doesn't offer the same potential for profit as common stock, but it's a more stable investment vehicle because it guarantees a regular dividend that isn't directly tied to the market like the price of common stock. This type of stock guarantees dividends, which common stock does not. The price of preferred stock is tied to interest rate levels, and tends to go down if interest rates go up and to increase if interest rates fall.

The other advantage of preferred stock is that preferred stockholders get priority when it comes to the payment of dividends. In the event of a company's liquidation, preferred stockholders get paid before those who own common stock. In addition, if a company goes bankrupt, preferred stockholders enjoy priority distribution of the company's assets, while holders of common stock don't receive corporate assets unless all preferred stockholders have been compensated (bond investors take priority over both common and preferred stockholders).
Like common stock, preferred stock represents ownership in a company. However, owners of preferred stock do not get voting rights in the business.