I am stating fair value, right now being very very conservative is
4.5 Billion dollars. With current dilution thats around .70 cents a share.
Homer, SL62, Mogami, ASM640, Killer, everyone please comment. All senior members please answer for newer investors so they can have a target price that makes sense to them.
It would be helful I feel to evaluate SIRIUSXM market cap again at this time, now that the dilution is offical.
THANK YOU!!!!
Last edited by relmor2003; 03-06-2009 at 09:57 PM.
well the NASDAQ page is saying about 2.4 billion (.35 a share) But that changes almost daily.
myself I have no clue.
You've got my interest
relmor,
thanks for the target price. I guess you are much more confident now, the last couple of days and the arguments about bk, deal or no deal were somewhat disturbing, to say the least.
I posted earlier about the negotiations between the goverment in Germany and GM about Opel and their sisters Vauxhall and Saab. Do you think that a deal would help GM and then Sirius too, provided there wouldn't be a bk for GM.
Have to go, I will log in later again, thanks.
Originally Posted by relmor2003
I am reposting Homers opinion, if that is alright with him. As everyone here respects his opinion I wanted everyone to have a better chance of reading it. Thanks again Homer for taking time to help us out.
"With the current economy and current state of the OEM's -- I think that $3BB could be doable by the end of Summer. Which would be about $0.44... but that is under current conditions. If the economy improves then more -- but if it worsens, then less (obviously).
I think $6BB would be in a year with the economy rebounding, the OEM's rebounding and the synergies fully realized... that takes it near $1. If growth comes back at a manageable cost on top of this? Then perhaps a $8-9BB MC down the line.
If Sirius ever hopes to get the pps to a price where Funds can buy it and really invest in it -- then they have to get the pps above $5. To do that, they need to do a 1 for 25 split this year. Yes, that drastic. That would take the number of fully diluted shares down to 272MM -- which would make the stock very difficult to manipulate. While leaving enough liquidity in it to keep it attractive to traders. While the current pps would only increase to $3.50 initially -- with growth, it would likely go above $5 on its own as that would only be a $1.3BB market cap. A $5BB MC at that sharecount would grow the pps to $18.
The RS has to happen with this fully diluted sharecount now.
"
------- Homer
I'm glad everyone is getting back into focus. The last day's drama over Brandon's post was getting us no where - This should be an interesting thread for us newbies - I'm sure at least Gallep and I would really like to hear from you senior members on this one.
Now that we're past BK for now... What are we looking at "realistically"
Following Homer's post, I don't think they need to go as far as 1:25 RS if they have the stock price above .50 by summer like he says. From there you do maybe a 1:10 to get it to $5 with just over 600M shares oustanding.
Are we talking about enterprise value or market cap? Either way, I think that this stock has no where to go but up.
When talking about enterprise value, you simply value the assets of the company and divide by the number of shares outstanding. Their FCC licenses alone are currently valued at around 1.8 billion each, or 3.6 billion combined. That alone takes out every single penny of debt. Everything else would be juice. I believe total assets on the books at Sirius and XM come to approximately 6 billion. This could be affected by price of land/real estate, but also may not take into account appreciation. It also does not take into account intangible assets, such as their contracts with OEMs, sports authorities, or on-air talent. But using the 6 billion number, and assuming dilution with Malone, brings total share count to about 6.5 billion, meaning an enterprise value of about $1 per share.
As far as a market cap, the two companies combined for a market cap of around 13 billion as recently as 18 months ago. Today, their market cap is right around 500 million. Im sure no one expects them to get back to 13 billion overnight, especially in this economy. If you look at most companies, they have lost about 60 - 75% of their market cap in today's environment. If we take that same principal with Sirius XM, 75% drop in market cap from 13 billion would mean a market cap of about 3 billion. In order to reach that, the PPS would have to reach about 85 cents per share. I think this is reasonable over the next year to year and a half, barring any significantly bad news.
Newman:
Thank you for this post. Very useful. I was looking for market cap.But an evaluation of pure "book value" , or enterprise value shows you just how depressed this SP really is currently.
Last edited by Newman; 03-07-2009 at 05:29 PM. Reason: No need for full quote when it is right below the original post
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