So anyone here think Brandons article has NOTHING to do with not Holding .13 today?

[mogami]

Wrong. That dilution is now. The conversion would only hurt worse, as they might then enter the float, and add to shorts, market manipulation, etc...
But if Malone converts, I dont feel he will sell any shares, as his end game is full control, as well it should be. No worries on him diluting the float, but unfortunately the diltuion of value still exists.

Hi he already has seats on BOD with his preferred. If he converts to common he has agreed to not more then 49% common.
That means for 3 years another party could buy up common.
Is Sirius prevented from issuing shares for other purpose from now on?
Is that 40 percent as of today? If Sirius issues new shares for other reasons do they need to also issue to Liberty to keep them at 40 percent?What if Liberty does not convert now and Sirius issues for other purpose would Liberty later get more shares when they converted (Is it 40 percent of float at time of deal or time of conversion)
Would it be better to R/S and then add shares by converting?


where can I go to get my poodle waxed?

[relmor2003]

hey relmor what about the whole sun alinging with the galaxy thing, i saw that on the history channel. but i admit i wasnt paying close enough attention to follow it completely.

Actually "happening over the course of a huge time period" That date is not the exact happening of it. The event is only significant to us, not the galaxy, nor the universe. Its kind of like "watching American Footbal vs. football for the rest of the world." American football is more attute to us, not the world, its all perspective. Its a non event to the cosmos, but a "visual" event so to speak here on earth. Much to do about nothing really. No Niribu either. All a bunch of BS. That guy misinterperted Mayan symbology, and he has been since discredited.

[asm610]

Wrong. That dilution is now. The conversion would only hurt worse, as they might then enter the float, and add to shorts, market manipulation, etc...
But if Malone converts, I dont feel he will sell any shares, as his end game is full control, as well it should be. No worries on him diluting the float, but unfortunately the diltuion of value still exists.

"Under the existing terms of their agreement, SIRIUS XM has issued Liberty an aggregate of 12.5 million shares of new preferred stock convertible into 40% of the common stock of SIRIUS XM. "



relmor, I agree. Liberty ultimately wants what they perceive to be an income producing asset.That said...you can't short something if it doesn't exist so if he doesn't convert isn't it better for the common.....to just have the possible dilution of common shares vs the actual. I would also ask...do they have to convert before the R/S or after....anyone know?

[homer985]

Hi, Well they have not filed the SEC form for issuing Liberties common so as of today the float is still 3,513,401,000
The new 40% has not impacted SP because it has not yet taken place

The shares were registered yesterday in Delaware -- and filed with the SEC today.

http://idea.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...5097exv3w1.htm

http://idea.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...5097exv3w2.htm

The dilution already took place. The "float" will not change until Liberty actually converts to Common, but that won't happen for a long time. That is why I stated it is a "fully-diluted" Market Cap... it assumes the Liberty conversion into common into the calculation.

3.8BB shares ----> into 6.3BB shares at $0.14 = $889MM fully diluted market cap.



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[sl62]

No, 79%. The amount of equity increased signficantly today.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Prior to Phase 2 of the Liberty deal, there were 3.8BB outstanding Common and Preferred shares -- valued at $496MM. After Phase 2 of the Liberty deal, there are now 6.3BB outstanding Common shares (post Preferred conversion) -- giving that equity a market value of $889MM.

The equity market value increased from $496MM to $889MM... a 79% increase.

Normally with that much dilution, a stock's price would drop significantly -- as the market value would stay roughly the same. In this case, the market value of the equity jumped significantly. The market absorbed the dilution news -- and rather than sinking the price, it was a slight/moderate increase to the pps. But in all reality, the equity value increased signficantly.

Now, it will be interesting to see what value the market places on the equity going forward. After the 2003 restructuring, the value of XM and Sirius combined was around $4BB. At the time of the merger, the combined value was around $12BB. Currently, it is just under $900MM (up from about $500MM). Where will it be valued eventually in a good economy? $6BB? If so, that would put the pps at close to $1 someday... not for awhile though.

That's why a reverse split is imparative now, IMHO.


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Homer...

Good forward-thinking post as to adding in new dilution. I'm more than happy to have all this new math be done while SP is already down here. Once past the i's and t's, fundementals be what they may, this SP has all opps to return to it's other "spec" persona and get driven higher if Q's deliver. I'm not bothered by 6B outstanding in the '09 interim. Mel has the RS approval and must use it before December and will. I think though he will wait until the late fall to pull that trigger. SP will still be able to move until then IMHO. I see plenty of opp in the meantime to see a buck or so. Since many retrenched down here, that wouldn't suck for many in recouping some previous losses.

[relmor2003]

The shares were registered yesterday in Delaware -- and filed with the SEC today.

http://idea.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...5097exv3w1.htm

http://idea.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...5097exv3w2.htm

The dilution already took place. The "float" will not change until Liberty actually converts to Common, but that won't happen for a long time. That is why I stated it is a "fully-diluted" Market Cap... it assumes the Liberty conversion into common into the calculation.

3.8BB shares ----> into 6.3BB shares at $0.14 = $889MM fully diluted market cap.



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Actually, they have not fully diluted yet, as I understand. The vote, plus previous shares not issed, but them well over the 6.88 billion. If the stock price has priced in full dilution, then there should be some gains back from the possibilities SIRIUSXM will now no longer have to use more shares. They can sit on them for now.

[homer985]

Homer,

I don't see where they would be in a hurry to convert the shares at this time to common....do you know something.....because unless you convert those shares....there is no dilution.

The market will price in this dilution -- you're not talking about a 10-20 or 80 million in new dilution from Preferred... you're talking about 2.5BB new shares. The market will account for this in its valuation of Sirius.


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[sl62]

The shares were registered yesterday in Delaware -- and filed with the SEC today.

http://idea.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...5097exv3w1.htm

http://idea.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...5097exv3w2.htm

The dilution already took place. The "float" will not change until Liberty actually converts to Common, but that won't happen for a long time. That is why I stated it is a "fully-diluted" Market Cap... it assumes the Liberty conversion into common into the calculation.

3.8BB shares ----> into 6.3BB shares at $0.14 = $889MM fully diluted market cap.



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So the add shares are counted as outstanding as of now or no?

[john]

mogami, The street has already been figured in the dilution. If you notice it is were it was at just after the original announcement. My point is, 40% of the company is 40% no matter how you slice it.

[mogami]

The shares were registered yesterday in Delaware -- and filed with the SEC today.

http://idea.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...5097exv3w1.htm

http://idea.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...5097exv3w2.htm

The dilution already took place. The "float" will not change until Liberty actually converts to Common, but that won't happen for a long time. That is why I stated it is a "fully-diluted" Market Cap... it assumes the Liberty conversion into common into the calculation.

3.8BB shares ----> into 6.3BB shares at $0.14 = $889MM fully diluted market cap.



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roger that I'm tracking you now. Your saying even though they have not actually issued any new common the fact that they can convert anytime is the same as far as impacting SP. I don't see how it changes market cap prior to actual conversion. (Are preferred shares calculated in Market Cap or just when they represent potential 40 percent of float