Take A Look At The 12b-25 Ext: What Does It Reveal?

**FoolNHisMoney** · 03-05-2009, 02:04 AM

Of course, I ride Suzuki now though!

**killerkaul** · 03-05-2009, 02:07 AM

Baba........... have to check out your steamer.......... could be the same ship my dad's father came over on from Germany/Russia. Sl62............ you've got a great ride also. Time to turn in............ see you early morn everyone. Great discussion. Goodnite. ..killer and the Dog.

**Brandon Matthews** · 03-05-2009, 02:12 AM

Originally Posted by homer985

Yes, if you believe that RETAIL adds ZERO subscribers in 2009 - then this is possible.

20MM subs with a 1.7% churn is 4MM lost subs in 2009;

9.1MM OEM run rate, with a 50% installation rate and a 50% takeup rate;
leaves 2.28MM OEM additions in 2009

Difference is 1.72MM lost subs for 2009. If you believe that RETAIL has ZERO adds in 2009, then you will have your 2 million lost subscribers in 2009.

However, an average of 500K new retail subs per quarter, would put 2009 totals into the positive.

Yes, completely disagree with your assessment.

-----

Apparently Homer, you do not completely disagree. In fact you acknowledge that you concur on nearly every point. I didn't want to see the result that I came up with using the very same methodology. It pained me to pen the article I wrote tonight but it had to be written, which will be published tomorrow.

500k new retail sales would be needed to break even is a stretch. Sirius added only 107,000 in Q3 2008. So yes indeed, retail in negligible.

(http://idea.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...32887/d10q.htm)

**FoolNHisMoney** · 03-05-2009, 02:19 AM

Originally Posted by homer985

Yes, if you believe that RETAIL adds ZERO subscribers in 2009 - then this is possible.

20MM subs with a 1.7% churn is 4MM lost subs in 2009;

9.1MM OEM run rate, with a 50% installation rate and a 50% takeup rate;
leaves 2.28MM OEM additions in 2009

Difference is 1.72MM lost subs for 2009. If you believe that RETAIL has ZERO adds in 2009, then you will have your 2 million lost subscribers in 2009.

However, an average of 500K new retail subs per quarter, would put 2009 totals into the positive.

Yes, completely disagree with your assessment.

-----

A churn rate of 1.7% or self-pay subs adds up to about 3.2 million or so lost subs for the year. Even with 9.1 SAAR we should see an add of 2+ million as you state. Now we have to assume that retail sales will add something to the numbers, so no way in hell could we lose 2 mil subs overall. Keep in mind that penetration rate is also on the rise - should be well over 50% for 09, maybe even 60%. IMO retail sales is where they will need to concentrate this year as auto sales are not looking like they will pick up substantially this year. Go iPhone app!

**killerkaul** · 03-05-2009, 02:20 AM

FoolNhisMoney.................. my first bike was a 1969 TS 250 Suzuki Savage two stroke single cylinder enduro. It was a great motorcycle. My twin also had a Suzuki. My friends and I all had dirt bikes. We rode all over the Black Hills on them all through high school. Homework ? What homework ? Those were the days. Goodnite buddy.

**FoolNHisMoney** · 03-05-2009, 02:22 AM

Originally Posted by Brandon Matthews

Apparently Homer, you do not completely disagree. In fact you acknowledge that you concur on nearly every point. I didn't want to see the result that I came up with using the very same methodology. It pained me to pen the article I wrote tonight but it had to be written, which will be published tomorrow.

500k new retail sales would be needed to break even is a stretch. Sirius added only 107,000 in Q3 2008. So yes indeed, retail in negligible.

(http://idea.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...32887/d10q.htm)

Brandon, net adds was 344K in Q3

retail-149,416
oem492,215
rental1,282
net adds344,081

retail lost net, but I figure gross retail sales had to be in the 200k range.

**Sirius_Long_Hauler** · 03-05-2009, 02:32 AM

So what's the conclusion after all this speculation... sit tight and wait for the 17th? No reason to panic?

**FoolNHisMoney** · 03-05-2009, 02:40 AM

Originally Posted by killerkaul

FoolNhisMoney.................. my first bike was a 1969 TS 250 Suzuki Savage two stroke single cylinder enduro. It was a great motorcycle. My twin also had a Suzuki. My friends and I all had dirt bikes. We rode all over the Black Hills on them all through high school. Homework ? What homework ? Those were the days. Goodnite buddy.

Funny, I actually still own a 2001 650 Suzuki Savage thumper (gotta love that single cylinder torque!). I only rode it a couple of times since I bought it for a friend who still has the bike. Long story there, but one day I'll get it back. I started on dirtbikes as well, though my dad wouldn't let me get one in high school. It sucked eating dirtbike dust on a moped! I had to ride my buddies' bikes until I turned 18 and could buy one myself.

**just sirius** · 03-05-2009, 02:42 AM

Brandon/Homer

Don't disagree with your numbers per se. Split the difference. SiriusXM loses .75M subs in 2009. Thats 95M in revenue lost. I would think that with the synergies that are being realized, that number is acceptable in this market. Also, add in new revenue streams...internet...increased $ for family plan, B of B... advertising(maybe)...revenue may actually increase. Loss of subs not necessarily a death sentence. I agree Brandon, would definitely hurt, but not insurmountable. IMO Also, 9.1M autos is low end. Sales push for retail cranking up...250-350K new retail per qtr not out of the question. again IMO

**just sirius** · 03-05-2009, 02:45 AM

FoolN

I believe that Brandon was meaning only 100K of retail subs for 3rd qtr. Not total subs!

Take A Look At The 12b-25 Ext: What Does It Reveal?

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