SIRI Intraday Updates for the Week of 3/2/09

[Siriusowner]

Demian, Thank you. I don't mind Siriusowner's 100% bad news scenario but I was hoping for some justification for the arguement, as you gave for yours. I worry that it is more likely bad than good. Siriusowner, what have you got for us?

Nothing, just hold. Do not add or do anything. The trade was @ 0.13 but it looks that it won't be paying off...

[FUNFUN99]

http://www.istockanalyst.com/article...icleid/3086532

dish HIGHER churn, loosing subs, loosing more money....Ergen is very smart. he saw the huge cash engine that siri xm will be in a year or two. Liberty Media saw it also. all we need to do is get past this year. it is a big undertaking in the worst economy since the depression in 1929.

if anyone can navigage thru these difficult times MEL CAN. BY THE WAY MEL'S CONTRACT with ends in dec 2009. anyone notice he did not receive any options, cash bonus or anything following the impossible task of the merger and then getting the deal with Liberty. he could have and he could have weathered the storm of adversity but he held tight. unlike THE bankers.

[Siriusowner]

Siriusowner,

I disagree that the likelihood is all 100% negative in regards to the delay of the Q4/year end filings....

Thoughts......

If they report good numbers now while the market is tanking and breaking into new lows, it might damper the upside potential of the stock to run....

If the numbers are really good, it might be better to report later when the market has at least found some footing.

What if the extra time allows them to secure better financing?

What if the extra time allows them to book some deferred revenue to help the quarterly numbers? This possibility was talked about in this thread...
http://siriusbuzz.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1511

What if the extra delay allows for a longer speculative run up into the numbers?

There are positive possibilities.............I don't buy the 100% negative argument.

So, they are timing the market ? I doubt it... Besides, in this environment do you really think two or three weeks will make a difference ?

Assuming for a moment that all your speculation is true and the stock does run up, what makes you think the stock spike will hold ? Did it hold when they announced the deal with Malone ?

The only reason they postponed is because they are letting the market fully digest the Malone deal and at the same time, the "good news" are not actually that good.

[Siriusowner]

Demian, can you tell me something.

If you put a trade at all or none, does it take longer for the trade to take place being you are say selling a bigger block of stock?

The market has nothing to do with it.

The right answer is: It depends on how liquid the issue is. A market AON on Apple will get filled in a blink of an eye. Try the same with VTO (Vitro... an ADR).

[sxminvestor]

So, they are timing the market ? I doubt it... Besides, in this environment do you really think two or three weeks will make a difference ?

Assuming for a moment that all your speculation is true and the stock does run up, what makes you think the stock spike will hold ? Did it hold when they announced the deal with Malone ?

The only reason they postponed is because they are letting the market fully digest the Malone deal and at the same time, the "good news" are not actually that good.

It must be time to buy.

[xitvp]

So, they are timing the market ? I doubt it... Besides, in this environment do you really think two or three weeks will make a difference ?

Assuming for a moment that all your speculation is true and the stock does run up, what makes you think the stock spike will hold ? Did it hold when they announced the deal with Malone ?

The only reason they postponed is because they are letting the market fully digest the Malone deal and at the same time, the "good news" are not actually that good.

I don't think one can speculate with any confidence either way. It is very reasonable to think they needed more time to digest the Liberty info as well as perhaps being close to renegotiating new financing.

I don't see why many people think this is bad. It's just delayed.

[Siriusowner]

It must be time to buy.

Last buy signal was on 2/26/2009 @ 0.13. After that the stock went to 0.16 but I never got a sell signal. So, unless something out of the extraordinary occurs before the end of the week, I may just break even on this last trade.

Next signal is a sell signal so time to sell not to buy.

[Siriusowner]

I don't think one can speculate with any confidence either way. It is very reasonable to think they needed more time to digest the Liberty info as well as perhaps being close to renegotiating new financing.

I don't see why many people think this is bad. It's just delayed.

Paraphrasing our ex-president "you are either a friend or a foe", "if you are not with us you are with the terrorists", etc...unfortunately for SIRI the foes are many more than the friends... and they are winning...and BTW, they are the ones that think that the delay is bad.

[Hopeful]

I don't think one can speculate with any confidence either way. It is very reasonable to think they needed more time to digest the Liberty info as well as perhaps being close to renegotiating new financing.

I don't see why many people think this is bad. It's just delayed.

Everyone keeps talking about renegotiating new financing. If they were to renegotiate new financing that would mean that they could avoid the second part of the liberty deal, therefor staving off the 12% preferred "40% common" to malone? In turn avoiding further dilution???

[RMAN]

I guess we will all know by March 17th.

Hoping it all falls into place finally!