SIRI Intraday Updates for the Week of 1/26/09

[Siriusowner]

Look, y'all can spend every day 24 hours a day from here until the FEB debt is due arguing why the stock price is @ .11 and will never be able to figure out what the bottom line is.

Haven't they been diluting the damn stock ? You wouldn't expect it to increase in price if whenever it does "there comes the damn company with more shares..." would ya? Let me ask y'all something, have you ever diluted paint with water ? Did you notice how it dilutes just after adding water but then it starts thickening again over time and you have to come and add more water to it ? Same thing happens with this damn company and its stock.

You want the bottom line ?

Bottom line is Wall Street thinks they will not be able to re-finance the debt and they will declare BK. That is how the stock is priced...


ps: The shorts are all loaded in the stock (they are not shorting it anymore but are all loaded). Some may even wait until FEB to start unloading their short trades, if they ever do (They think BK is a real possibility).

[James]

Not to mention all the people that watch 4:3 pictures in 16:9 mode. Everyone looks like they belong in South Park

I'll jump on board.

Just think HDTV. I've had HDTV for 6 years. Every, and i mean every, person i met that bought an early HDTV thought they were watching HDTV wasn't (5 families or so) Because you have to have Component or HDMI or DVI cables hooked up, you have to have an HD tuner, you have to have the TV set to 1080 or 720, you have to have the receiver set to output 720 or 1080, you have to acknowledge in the menu which input your using for the TV. Your satellite dish has to have 3lnbs. And finally I say...you have to pay your cable or satellite to send you the HD signal (unless you get it off the air which most people don't know either)

I could go on...the point is, If its not plug and play, people wont use it.

[James]

Then there is the laziness factor which is what make Satellite Radio superior to Ipods, Slacker etal for use in the car. I get in my car, start the car and "First Wave" is there. I usually carry my phone with me but , even if my phone were capable, it would involve, opening an app, attaching the phone. An Ipod would require prep, such copying limited songs. A slacker would require a refresh. There is no substitue for Sat Radio in the car.

The problem is Sirius has, if not surrended the home market, largely ignored it. There should have been a cheap internet only device put out by Sirius. A Wi-Fi Conductor like device or a device like the Zing protype.

[nisvan]

Siriusowner, you wrote:

ps: The shorts are all loaded in the stock (they are not shorting it anymore but are all loaded). Some may even wait until FEB to start unloading their short trades, if they ever do (They think BK is a real possibility).

Can you or anyone please explain that in layman's terms (i'm a lawyer, but not an experienced trader) - I know the shorts were a major problem in 2008, bringing the stock down, but am not sure exactly why or how.

Thanks

[Siriusowner]

Siriusowner, you wrote:

ps: The shorts are all loaded in the stock (they are not shorting it anymore but are all loaded). Some may even wait until FEB to start unloading their short trades, if they ever do (They think BK is a real possibility).

Can you or anyone please explain that in layman's terms (i'm a lawyer, but not an experienced trader) - I know the shorts were a major problem in 2008, bringing the stock down, but am not sure exactly why or how.

Thanks

This dates back to the merger. In the traders word there's a rule: "Buy the seller, sell the buyer". What it means is, short the shares of the company that is buying and buy the shares of the one that is being acquired.

So, what happened was that a bunch of traders shorted the stock back then (and with Sirius paving the road with all those stupid agreements they made with GS you can imagine...). Now, tell me, has there been a reason in the last 7 months for them to cover ?

[winagain35]

Siriusowner, you wrote:

ps: The shorts are all loaded in the stock (they are not shorting it anymore but are all loaded). Some may even wait until FEB to start unloading their short trades, if they ever do (They think BK is a real possibility).

Can you or anyone please explain that in layman's terms (i'm a lawyer, but not an experienced trader) - I know the shorts were a major problem in 2008, bringing the stock down, but am not sure exactly why or how.

Thanks

Most of the shorts are major bond holders who have shorted the equity as an arbitrage play to lock in profits. In February when the remainder of the 2.5% converts are paid off, I would expect some or all of those hedged shorts to have covered their positions. Don't expect a short squeeze though - My guess is that some of these debt for equity swaps are being used by the big boys to cover their position without having to buy shares in the open market.

[Siriusowner]

Most of the shorts are major bond holders who have shorted the equity as an arbitrage play to lock in profits. In February when the remainder of the 2.5% converts are paid off, I would expect some or all of those hedged shorts to have covered their positions. Don't expect a short squeeze though - My guess is that some of these debt for equity swaps are being used by the big boys to cover their position without having to buy shares in the open market.

"I do not why GS comes to mind... Wait a minute I know why...
Of course... they are holding all those convertibles ! I knew it... " Guess who's short and who has the money to manipulate a penny issue ?

You are correct, there will be a squeeze alright... but not the size the people is waiting for in this forum...

However, no one is shorting the issue anymore, it has been shorted all the way up to the neck and the shorts remain short, they are not covering...just yet...and big boys like GS may never cover...this is why there won't be a big squeeze.

[winagain35]

"I do not why GS comes to mind... Wait a minute I know why...
Of course... they are holding all those convertibles ! I knew it... " Guess who's short and who has the money to manipulate a penny issue ?

You are correct, there will be a squeeze alright... but not the size the people is waiting for in this forum...

However, no one is shorting the issue anymore, it has been shorted all the way up to the neck and the shorts remain short, they are not covering...just yet...and big boys like GS may never cover...this is why there won't be a big squeeze.

You're kind of missing my point. My theory is that GS and the other Bond bullies won't HAVE to cover on the open market since the shares they're getting in exchange for a portion of the debt will more than account for their hedged positions. I'd guess that most of the February hedges have probably already covered that way(for a HUGE profit)... it's the December convert holders and the 2014 convert holders that account for most of the 200mil plus short positions.
Remember Goldman doesn't necessarily WANT to see BK... they may end up owning a hefty position in the company after February. Sirius and GS could well be bedfellows soon.

[Demian]

http://i.gizmodo.com/5142096/sirius-...-within-a-week

Sirius Satellite Radio iPhone App Could Come Within a Week
By Sean Fallon, 3:20 PM on Thu Jan 29 2009

"Sources close to Orbitcast have revealed that Sirus is finally submitting their uSirius StarPlayr to the App Store this weekend."

[Demian]

http://www.crunchgear.com/2009/01/29...n-your-iphone/

StarPlayr: You’ll soon be able to listen to Sirius XM on your iPhone
by Nicholas Deleon on January 29, 2009

"...........it will be submitted to Apple for approval by January 31. Considering there’s no “boobs and booty” here, I can’t see the approval process lasting too long. It’s up to Apple."