What is SIRI stock worth?

[pkmcro]

What is SIRI stock worth? .. and furthermore who has the balls to prove what it is worth? I started watching SIRI about 2 years ago, I bought in a month or so after the merger process was announced. I traded in and out of SIRI from the 3-4 range for months and made like 3,000 trading a 10,000 position. I was successful at doing this because SIRI stuck in a trading pattern, and more importantly i felt like it was overvalued at 3.75 or so and very undervalued at 3.00. Once it traded under 3.00 dollars I could not trade it, because I felt like every buy was a steal.

Then Goldman Sachs seemed to take a greater interest in this stock and started issusing ridiculous price targets like 2.75, 2.50 , 1.75. I thought they were all ridiculous and all very undervalued but they all kept coming true. I stopped trading the stock and just held my core position, because I felt that under 3 this was just blasphemously undervalued. Wienkes kept coming up with ridiculous reasons to downgrade the stock and quite frankly everything that he said hasn't come true. The only thing that seems to come true is his price target.

He said the merger wouldn't get approved... he said if it got approved their would be too many concessions.. he said the NAB would sue...he said SIRI would have to take out more convertibles...he lowballed earnings and revenue etc... He was wrong on everything. But regardless his price predictions came true. It seemed everyone disagreed with him drastically, but the stock price only cared about Goldman Sachs. Now he has issued a $1 stock target( why because he think everyone in America is going to go deaf so they can't listen to radio?)

This is a frieken joke. I know that SIRI is worth much more than where it currently trades and $1 is simply criminal. However I can only buy so much more stock, you can only buy so much more stock. So where does the price of this stock go? If it was up to Wienkes it would go to 0, but then between me Tyler and Brandon we could buy up the float lol.

I think that a lot of us want to hold on long term, but seriously how much pain can we take. And at what cost does this all come to us as, when does it stop, and when do we get our reward? OH and if any institutions want to buy a 100 million shares ish and hold I would appreciate it, thanks.

[john]

pkmcro, Nice comment, I have seen that also. The man has been wrong on to many things, yet his price targets do get hit. I will say this, I have been in to see it go all the way down to 60 cents, (That is realative because it was in a trading range at the time of .85 to 1.15 at the time.) all the way up and past 9. So I could really care less if it gets below a dollar or not. I actually would like it to stay this low at least till the end of Aug, because I cannot justify selling a stock like DSX to buy SIRI I have taken it out of DRIP and will use that to buy more if it stays this low. For those that want to bother with the metrics the numbers are there that show how well 2009 will be. There is noone on this planet that can tell me that this company is less well off now, then it was back in 2002 with a straight face (lets face it for the most part most of the delution was already in at 2003). Yet that is what the price is saying, I am sorry I am not a believer in what the price is saying right now. I am not a paranoid person so it is hard for me to believe in it being played by big players, to the point some think but something is going on. Back then which was the last time we saw this price there was no mention of FCF positive coming in the next year or 2, that was way off in the future. Back then having 8.9 million subs in just 6 years was a pipe dream. It took them almost 2 years to get 2 million subs and that was called remarkable. Now as to the debt., no they did not have the debt. they have now, but if you compare the debt they did have to the amount of revenue that was coming in, they are better off now then they were then. So inconclusion, I will say this, while I have put all that I have made off it back in and about half of my original investment. If I would have just kept it in the bank I would be putting the rest back at this price and lower, becuase I definitely have more confedence in it now, then I did back then.

[JasonL]

Here flies in John the pawn
here with his cape and badge to distract the facts.
Again, I will try in my own terms to reiterate the question of pkmcro, without all Johns lines of positive static about past price fluctuations, that is a mirage.
Why has this stock been shrunk to a 3 yr low, when all condition of a pay out have been met by these so called analyst? Huh, why John, why does the market not see such a bright sunny future as you do, and why the wait if the future is so inevitably bright for SIRI, and Mel is the satellite savior? The price is purposely being controlled by these puppet masters of this American market, these price targeters, speculators, inside traders. The price has been driven down to appease the ones ultimately controlling the deal. There will be those spontanious spikes, that you will need to have your microscope in focus for, but until something drastic happens, this stock will continue to be controlled and governed. Us, concerned shareholder, have had very little voice in this matter, we are hushed by these happy go lucky know it alls.
And we have such enthusiast in this forum, almost reminds me of that lawyer/judge relationship, its all a big business and what goes around comes around. I dont see any "near future" pay out for anyone, we are all being taken for fools, cause we all know SIRI should be 5-6 dollars as of this moment, not next years, next year it should be 10.00.
Nuff said

[zcurzan]

If you are so confident in the fact that it is undervalued where it is trading, why worry about it?

It represents an opportunity for your add to your position at a more attractive price. If you think it is being manipulated and held low, its obviously done for a purpose so that it can be driven up to let someone cash in on the difference.

Hide under their big Wall Street coat tails, and when they make their move, you go along for the ride. You can't fight the tide, but you can sure use it to you advantage.

[JasonL]

You make a valid point zcurzan, I really want to buy in at this price, and I am on the verge, trying to better my position, but I have been so hesitant to invest any more money in this stock after nearly 2 years of undervalued price targets that keep being met, even if the current price is so tempting, because even after the merger, I still see no end to the onslaught, even in 2009 when the possible synergies will take effect, because they will then again find other reasons to hold this stock down. I really want to buy in, but my gut tells me to play my position and ride this out with what I have in now, becuase it all seems designed to lure idiots like me in, i just don't trust it, so for now, I will stick with my guns, and hold what I already have.

[john]

JasonL, What the heck are you trying to say. Can you read or comprehend what I said, if not I will break it down for you. You may not know the things I have said before so you may not understand. So I will dumb it down for you.

I could careless what the price of the stock is today it is way under valued. The metrics show this, if you cant follow those, then you should not have invested in it. If you get out now that puts you in the unsophisticated catagory that Mel is talking about. You cant get anymore simple then going from 79 million loss to 24 million loss YOY EDITDA, to show the revenues from the new subs from this point on are going directly to the bottom line. Put that together with 400 million in savings next year, and another 1.5 million subs (for just the SIRI side) and you get EBITDA in the positive by this time next year, and not by a small amount ether. The fact is there is going to be only so long that the stock can be held down, for whatever reason. Is that clear enough for you.

As to why it is down, I dont care why, for reasons I gave above. The simple fact is, I think you would be a dumb ass to sell now, for reasons like why is it down now (whatever they are) or it may go down further. Do you get it yet, I cant believe anyone is that thick.

[zcurzan]

Good move Jason. The decision to average down is also dependent on a lot of other variables namely the overall size of your portfolio, what other stocks you are in at the moment, how much money you have kicking around etc.

No matter how attractive the price got, I would be hesitant to average down if it meant I would be banking too much of my money on what still amounts to a uncertain future.

Either way, best of luck.

[pkmcro]

Thanks everyone for your thoughts. Let me share my thoughts and some advice I have heard from other people.
This is very undervalued, but yet zcurzan has a great point. You should not make to big of a bet on any one stock. This stock was undervalued at 3, and it will be undervalued at .90 too, right. I had a hedge und manager speak at my Investments class last year, and he said be careful being a contrarian. You may very well be correct on your theory, but if the street disagrees with you and you are too early in being right you can get burned if you don't have the discipline to hang on.

The example he used was this. He said oil is currently at 105 dollars a barrell, supply and demand, and speculation on current world conflicts gives us a price target of $85. We think that is what oil is worth, however that doesn't mean that the street might not take it to $150 a barrell first. While we think that oil is overvalued, that does not mean it can't get more overvalued. He said in situations like this, sometimes it is best to just sit out and watch because the volatility can be too dangerous. ( By the way he proved to be very right, he gave this speech about 6 months ago)

So basically I think we are right, but we might be right a little too early. It can't hurt to buy here, but I would only buy with cash not margin and just be patient. This is no longer a trade but rather an investment.

Good luck guys and in closing... does anyone know if there is an ETF that is short or ultra short the Soviet stock market?

[pkmcro]

oh and one more thing John. funny thing, DSX is another one of my big holdings, and I have constantly been in a struggle to decide whether to sell some DSX to buy SIRI. luckily for the most part I have avoided doing that.

[john]

pkmcro, dont sell DSX for SIRI use the dividend if you want but dont sell your long holdings. Chances are it is part of your stable holdings I would never sell a stable holding for a speculative stock no matter what (You most likely know that already, but it is tempting I know.). Even SIRI which I believe will go way up in a few years after the merger. (That time frame for me has not changed since the merger was first talked about.)