SIRI INTRA DAY thread THUR MAY 7th 2009

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Originally Posted by bassmaster

john/homer.....barring an anomoly or bad suprise, can we expect to be FCF+ the rest of the year? will the new satelite launch hurt/suppress bottom line?

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Its going to kill it. Any hope to be FCF positive is lost due to the satellite being launched. Mel said as much in the 3rd quarter 2008 CC. I think he said that they would be FCF positive except for CAPEX cost (most of that is the satellite launch). Like I said before, if they wanted the PPS to soar then they should put off that launch. Think of it, that would enable them to be FCF positive for the full year when it is taken as a whole (each quarter + and -). That would be the first time in the companies history, that is no small thing and a PPS mover.

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Originally Posted by TSavery

Much of the 7 cent loss is a one time expense. Thus, investors should consider it accordingly. The loss is real in terms of GAAP, and thus it gets reported that way.

What does this mean? It means that those who understand why the loss was at 7 cents will have an advatage, as long as the company continues to improve their trend.

The headlines often create the sentiment, and this is one reason why you see the wild price swings.

You will likely see several articles dealing with the one time cost in the coming days

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Naa, only if you write it. or Brandon. Expect nothing from the street on clarity on this issue. ETRADE reporting .07 cents a loss on their permanent report for the quarter. It will hold their forever, reading a .07 cent loss per share. Which is accurate. Technically.

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Originally Posted by underway

Just sent this to Investor Relations....probably for naught, but needed to vent.

"Hi. While I am pleased to be holding almost 400,000 shares of SIRI, and equally pleased over progress towards profitability, I was dismayed by the confusing statement in the press release regarding the loss in Q1 expressed in $/share. There are two statements in the same paragraph, one showing a loss of .01 and the other .07 with absolutely no explanation of the difference. The financial media has jumped on the (.07) figure and declared SIRI missing expectations, causing a sell off. Unfortunately, with no written explanation as to the difference between these numbers and no discussion of it during the Conf Call, confusion reigns. Please explain publicly what this is. It's a shame to see all the positive news overwhelmed by a PR error. Thanks."

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it is shltty, but all this does is present a buying opp. for alot of people. i'm assuming your goal was to sell off on an expected rise in SP immediately following the CC, otherwise you would not be upset. you clearly understand the difference so if you're planning on holding long term why make an issue when this sticking point for you is not that big of a deal?

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Originally Posted by john

Its going to kill it. Any hope to be FCF positive is lost due to the satellite being launched. Mel said as much in the 3rd quarter 2008 CC. I think he said that they would be FCF positive except for CAPEX cost (most of that is the satellite launch). Like I said before, if they wanted the PPS to soar then they should put off that launch. Think of it, that would enable them to be FCF positive for the full year when it is taken as a whole (each quarter + and -). That would be the first time in the companies history, that is no small thing and a PPS mover.

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LOL, it's like there's a 1 time expense every Q!!!!!!!! HAHAHAHAHAH.....well, im not a tech guy but has anyone fully explained what the new birds are capable of? will they be able to stream tv? consolidate spectrum? reduce costs? or are there just assumptions of what they will do?

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Originally Posted by bassmaster

it is shltty, but all this does is present a buying opp. for alot of people. i'm assuming your goal was to sell off on an expected rise in SP immediately following the CC, otherwise you would not be upset. you clearly understand the difference so if you're planning on holding long term why make an issue when this sticking point for you is not that big of a deal?

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Yes and no. I do agree with you that in the long run, no big deal. But, it is upsetting because it sends a bad signal over the way they manage. What's the next snafu? In other words...hey..mistakes happen...but, when you are putting yourself out for the world to see....you can't make sure it's done correctly? Plus, it screws people with short term objectives for no damn reason. I had planned on selling a small chunk this week and debated over whether to wait till today. I didn't...sold 20k shares yesterday, and I'm glad I did. But...you are right...I'm long. but damn it MEL and company...get it f'n right, will ya?

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Originally Posted by relmor2003

Naa, only if you write it. or Brandon. Expect nothing from the street on clarity on this issue. ETRADE reporting .07 cents a loss on their permanent report for the quarter. It will hold their forever, reading a .07 cent loss per share. Which is accurate. Technically.

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relmor, YOU CAN WRITE IT!!!!!!! article number 2 for you. go for it bro!!!!!!

btw. for all. even tho the price took a beating today. i am in a very good mood. i feel even stronger about my position in this equity. the metrics are out and we're headed in the right direction. ya, i wish the market perceived the news better, but f*ck it (sorry to you short termers). the small bits of info i got from those that posted insight from the CC are HUGE positives and makes me feel like my long position is secure. i wish i can offer insight to daytraders but its not my expertise yet....for those who are long or wish to be long, the horizon looks fantastic!

p.s. did someone @ CC say Q2 auto sales are getting hammered, thought i read a poster from tyler's article saying as much?

Here's the first article that attributes the .07 loss per share to expense related to preferred shares. But, doesn't say one time expense. Is it one time or recurring? If recurring, then it's obviously a bigger issue.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marke...BrandChannel=0

"Net loss attributable to common shareholders was $236.6 million, compared with $104.1 million a year earlier. Its loss per share was flat at 7 cents, as its outstanding shares more than doubled from a year earlier. Excluding costs related to preferred shares, the loss was 1 cent a share."

reuters is starting to change the story now,as this is 3rd update since original story this morning,,pretty fair article..


Personal Investors


Sirius XM Radio Inc (SIRI)
News Release

05/07/2009
03:18 PM EDT




UPDATE 3-Sirius XM loses subscribers, stock falls

05/07/2009 03:17 PM EDT
Copyright 2009 Reuters
* Ended Q1 with 18.6 mln subscribers, down 400,000

* Q1 revenue $605.5 mln vs Street view $646.5 mln

* Raises 2009 operating income view

* Shares fall 18 percent (Recasts; adds results details, analyst comment, byline; updates stock activity)

By Franklin Paul

NEW YORK, May 7 (Reuters) - Sirius XM Radio Inc lost more subscribers to its satellite radio service than expected in the first quarter due to weak car sales, overshadowing a rosy outlook driven by cost cuts and sending its shares sharply lower.

The company, which borrowed $530 million from Liberty Media Corp earlier this year to stave off looming debt problems, said subscribers to the pay-radio service declined by some 400,000, or about 2 percent, ending the period at 18.6 million.

"They (shareholders) were disappointed in the sub number," said RBC Capital Markets analyst David Bank, who had expected a subscriber decline of about 69,000 in the period.

Sirius shares tumbled 19 percent to 42.5 cents a share on Nasdaq on Thursday afternoon.

Sirius, which gains most of its new subscribers from radios built into cars, attributed the majority of the decline to poor automotive sales. For similar reasons, it expects to see a "noticeable hit" to its subscribers in the second quarter.
Net loss attributable to common shareholders was $236.6 million, compared with $104.1 million a year earlier. Its loss per share was flat at 7 cents, as its outstanding shares more than doubled from a year earlier. Excluding costs related to preferred shares, the loss was 1 cent a share.

Analysts had expected a loss of 3 cents per share, according to Reuters Estimates.

Pro forma sales rose 5 percent to $605.5 million, but fell short of analysts' view of $646.5 million. The pro forma figures reflect the fact that Sirius completed its purchase of rival XM Satellite Radio last July and compare the results as if they were a single company a year ago, also making some accounting adjustments for the transaction.

"Revenue missed on a surprising decline in subscribers -- we thought they would still be net-adding subscribers," said Miller Tabak & Co analyst David Joyce. "I think the subscriber loss is going to offset the cost-cutting."

Chief executive Mel Karmazin acknowledged the tough sales outlook for the auto industry, where Chrysler LLC has already filed for bankruptcy protection and plans to halt some of its production and General Motors Corp plans to close more than 2,600 North American dealerships.

But on a conference call with analysts, he touted Sirius' efforts to move toward profitability, including a 23 percent reduction in operating costs and an extension of its contract with GM through 2020, with "very improved economics for us."

"Sirius XM is a cash flow growth story. We posted our second consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA and this will continue," he said, referring to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization -- a widely used measure of profitability for media companies.

As a results of accelerated cost cutting, Sirius expects to exceed $350 million in adjusted income from operations this year, up from its previous forecast of $300 million.

Janco Partner analyst Murray Arenson noted Sirius is trying to shape how it is perceived, after more than two years under a cloud of uncertainty due to the merger and the possibility of missing critical loan payments.

In February, Liberty Media, controlled by cable pioneer John Malone, agreed to lend $530 million to Sirius in exchange for a 40 percent equity stake, saving the debt-laden satellite radio provider from possible bankruptcy.

"Given where they are coming from, which is the precipice of bankruptcy, they are a stronger company," Arenson said. "The question now becomes what makes them more valuable. The idea of emphasizing the cash flow stream to make them more valuable going forward seems like a reasonable way to go." (Reporting by Franklin Paul and Anupreeta Das; Editing by Derek Caney and Gerald E. McCormick)




Today's Snapshot:

$0.43 -0.0953 (-18.14%) 146,764,607 $0.40-0.55 -0.20
Last Today's Change Today's Volume Day Range P/E


05/07/2009 03:03 PM EDT. Quotes delayed at least 15 minutes.

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Originally Posted by bassmaster

btw. for all. even tho the price took a beating today. i am in a very good mood. i feel even stronger about my position in this equity. the metrics are out and we're headed in the right direction. ya, i wish the market perceived the news better, but f*ck it (sorry to you short termers). the small bits of info i got from those that posted insight from the CC are HUGE positives and makes me feel like my long position is secure. i wish i can offer insight to daytraders but its not my expertise yet....for those who are long or wish to be long, the horizon looks fantastic!

p.s. did someone @ CC say Q2 auto sales are getting hammered, thought i read a poster from tyler's article saying as much?

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yes it is in reuters article i posted.we can expect another 200k to 300k neg subs for 2Q,that is my figure not theirs,but they said between the lines in CC as much..

P.S.now remember that number is OEM which is factory installed,the ace in the hole is retail and Used car adds,if they can ramp it up as they said they are it could nullify that number alot..

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Originally Posted by bassmaster

btw. for all. even tho the price took a beating today. i am in a very good mood. i feel even stronger about my position in this equity. the metrics are out and we're headed in the right direction. ya, i wish the market perceived the news better, but f*ck it (sorry to you short termers). the small bits of info i got from those that posted insight from the CC are HUGE positives and makes me feel like my long position is secure. i wish i can offer insight to daytraders but its not my expertise yet....for those who are long or wish to be long, the horizon looks fantastic!

p.s. did someone @ CC say Q2 auto sales are getting hammered, thought i read a poster from tyler's article saying as much?

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Yes...due to auto industry plant closings they expect sub challenges in Q2.

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Originally Posted by underway

Here's the first article that attributes the .07 loss per share to expense related to preferred shares. But, doesn't say one time expense. Is it one time or recurring? If recurring, then it's obviously a bigger issue.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marke...BrandChannel=0

"Net loss attributable to common shareholders was $236.6 million, compared with $104.1 million a year earlier. Its loss per share was flat at 7 cents, as its outstanding shares more than doubled from a year earlier. Excluding costs related to preferred shares, the loss was 1 cent a share."

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One time loss.

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Originally Posted by underway

Yes...due to auto industry plant closings they expect sub challenges in Q2.

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Then literally, how they count subs is gay, and needs to change right now. If shutting down a plant effects their sub count, then thats ridiculous. Utter nonsense. Pure pullshit. 100 percetn gayness. Tyler warned me, and i got his point, and i understand how they count subs would be hurt by this, but i thought 65 percent penetration could offset this loss.
Enough of this 18 19 million crap. I am PISSED. I was hoping they would take how sirius canada reported them, they seperated self pay subs, from promo subs. Promo subs took the hit, not the self paying churn. Im AMAZED that Reuters correct the .07 cents a share, if they did. But it will never be removed from quick glance investors stat sheets, investment guides, investment tools, or any other source that will not explalin it. Peopole will think they BOMBED their quarter. Not a big deal. In fact, after today, its practically irrelevant. Just mad because that was part of the drop in price today. Im sad for people who sold at .41 and will never rebuy.
If I were siriusxm, i would stop reporting the promo subs altogether. Period. ONLY subs that actually send in money would be counted. If you add best of, then the ARPU goes up. If its a downloaded app with channel restrictions, count it as one sub, and arup goes down, big deal. A sub is a sub. They should have released numbers on the XM app increase from last quarter, and hint how the iphone will have similar effects.

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Originally Posted by relmor2003

Then literally, how they count subs is gay, and needs to change right now. Enough of this 18 19 million crap. I am PISSED. I was hoping they would take how sirius canada reported them, they seperated self pay subs, from promo subs. Promo subs took the hit, not the self paying churn. Im AMAZED that Reuters correct the .07 cents a share, if they did. But it will never be removed from quick glance investors stat sheets, investment guides, investment tools, or any other source that will not explalin it. Peopole will think they BOMBED their quarter. Not a big deal. In fact, after today, its practically irrelevant. Just mad because that was part of the drop in price today. Im sad for people who sold at .41 and will never rebuy.

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Not me Relmor,I'm selfish,know that people who bought this to get rich as a lottery ticket are losers who dropped out.you didn't think everyone was going to get rich did you?that scared me the most about this Stock not everyone is that smart,i hope the weak all sold and dissappear forever in this stock,better for those who are left...:p

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Originally Posted by relmor2003

Then literally, how they count subs is gay, and needs to change right now. If shutting down a plant effects their sub count, then thats ridiculous. Utter nonsense. Pure pullshit. 100 percetn gayness. Tyler warned me, and i got his point, and i understand how they count subs would be hurt by this, but i thought 65 percent penetration could offset this loss.
Enough of this 18 19 million crap. I am PISSED. I was hoping they would take how sirius canada reported them, they seperated self pay subs, from promo subs. Promo subs took the hit, not the self paying churn. Im AMAZED that Reuters correct the .07 cents a share, if they did. But it will never be removed from quick glance investors stat sheets, investment guides, investment tools, or any other source that will not explalin it. Peopole will think they BOMBED their quarter. Not a big deal. In fact, after today, its practically irrelevant. Just mad because that was part of the drop in price today. Im sad for people who sold at .41 and will never rebuy.
If I were siriusxm, i would stop reporting the promo subs altogether. Period. ONLY subs that actually send in money would be counted. If you add best of, then the ARPU goes up. If its a downloaded app with channel restrictions, count it as one sub, and arup goes down, big deal. A sub is a sub. They should have released numbers on the XM app increase from last quarter, and hint how the iphone will have similar effects.

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Agree about how they count sub's,but they can't change now because the total would take a hit and we can't have that now,maybe in a year or 2 when so profitable it doesn't matter,we vcan't take the pr hit now..

are we gonna close here at .43? lookslike we could break upwards for close. i dont think we will see anymore massive drops but now that ive said im sure one is coming, darn shoulda kept my mouth shut.

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Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM

Agree about how they count sub's,but they can't change now because the total would take a hit and we can't have that now,maybe in a year or 2 when so profitable it doesn't matter,we vcan't take the pr hit now..

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I respectfully disagree, although if you asked me 2 months ago i would have agreed with you. When this stock hit .12 cents, you change right there. Period. Never even mention promo subs. who cares. Ill show you how it would have helped us today irish. if they only show a 1 percent drop in permanent subs that looks a lot better than 2 percent. agreed?:D

if a stock shoots up during the final minutes of regular trading...does that usually mean it will do well after hours (barring any big news)?

I am long on SIRI, have been for almost two years... This stock just pisses me off sometimes, I know I should be grateful that we avoided BK blah blah blah, but come on already!

I completely agree with relmor about how they count subs!!! Where is the almighty Malone to slap Mel and Co around and tell them to smarten up!

I wish I could just not check this stock for 6 months or hell even once a week it's draining!

Another hatchet job,but technically correct...

http://www.businessinsider.com/siriu...orecast-2009-5