Well, I over-simplified. There are so many possible interpretations under the GAAP system that many conclusions can be drawn.Quote:
Originally Posted by homer985
In the end if they BK, shareholders will be basically wiped out.
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Well, I over-simplified. There are so many possible interpretations under the GAAP system that many conclusions can be drawn.Quote:
Originally Posted by homer985
In the end if they BK, shareholders will be basically wiped out.
Well said Homer!!!! everybody relax and be prepared for the long run,it will take about 2 years for this stock to be out of the woods financially.in the mean time either buy more or turn off the P.C. or MAC and faget about it...
Thanks for the feedback. Wouldn't that mean that sirius gets all the subs, but loses other assets, and the xm debt? It seems to me, that this might be a very good thing. Keep in mind, I'm a rookie..... YoQuote:
Originally Posted by FoolNHisMoney
I have been trying to figure out (as I have always thought Sirius XM should BK XM holdings) if doing so would cause the Malone deal to be retracted.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brandon Matthews
After going over as much as I could again with the deal I think this would pull it off the table:
http://investor.sirius.com/secfiling...=930413-09-841
"The closing and funding of the XM Credit Agreement is subject to several conditions, including: (i) XM’s existing credit agreements being amended to extend the maturity of the loans to a date and on terms reasonably satisfactory to Liberty Media Corporation, (ii) Liberty Media Corporation purchasing assignments of loans outstanding under such existing credit facilities in an aggregate principal amount of up to $100 million, (iii) delivery of a report from our auditors in respect of fiscal year 2008 without any “going concern” or like qualification (or receipt of a waiver from certain lenders), and (iv) issuance of the preferred stock under the Investment Agreement. "
Specifically (iii), I don't know how you could BK XM holdings without have "going concern" for the company. Also, why would Liberty dump $150 mil into the XM Credit Agreement for them to file BK?
This, however, is all assuming that the deal cannot still go through and I'm not seeing anything definitive as to why Malone would pull out now? My interpritation of Part III-Narrative (http://investor.sirius.com/secfiling...950123-09-3789) is that if Sirius XM has to include "going concern" then Malone has the option to opt out. At this point though it seems to me the business interest with Sirius XM and Liberty is long term and not short term. If it was only short term I could see Malone opting out, collects in BK before bond holders and gets paid. However, I think there is much more money to be made by both companies by Sirius XM staying out of BK.
Thanks for everyone's input and I agree that the negotiation has to be happening with all involved including the auditors. The process is not punitive just factual. In the end it is... what it is, and KPMG is there to state what will be required for a positive outcome. The rest is about the money...... and who gets what. The Bank Group is led by JPM and is going to want their share of this to extend, or else they'll want their money...
This is definitely why the SP is stuck here at .13. The run up on the Libery deal announcement, the release of the details, the extension with this, and right back down until the Auditor is done.
Hope for the best ...... Plan for the worst.... keep some powder dry for the days leading into the weekend of the 14th of March.... never a dull moment....
No, Malone included the clause because of the JPM $250 mil debt . . . this needs to be extended (assuming they will not be able to pay it off, a reasonable assumption). Not because of a Going Concern question. I think Ma"loan" is not quite right. It should be "Mayloan!"Quote:
Originally Posted by imromo24
The question is will they be able to extend the JPM debt? The sentiment here was pretty unanimous that this would be no problem before today. Why is this in doubt now?
985.....not to be too spazzy about this new news, but at .1399, there is not much wiggle room when bk is declared...IMHO
Could be... but if bankruptcy court valued the Sirius licenses to anywhere near the current value of the XM licenses, it changes that picture significantly... as there will be equity left over after the debt claims are taken care off.Quote:
Originally Posted by Siriusowner
The bond holders won't be able to just "take" $5+BB in assets to cover $4+BB in debt -- and keep the rest for themselves.
--------
always wondered now i know:Quote:
Originally Posted by cos1000
Meaning
Be prepared and save your resources until they are needed.
Origin
The allusion is to gunpowder which soldiers had to keep dry in order to be ready to fight when required. This advice reputedly originated with Oliver Cromwell during his campaign in Ireland. In Ballads of Ireland (1856), Edward Hayes wrote:
"There is a well-authenticated anecdote of Cromwell. On a certain occasion, when his troops were about crossing a river to attack the enemy, he concluded an address, couched in the usual fanatic terms in use among them, with these words - 'put your trust in God; but mind to keep your powder dry'."
19th century citations of the phrase invariably give the full version - trust in God and keep your powder dry. This emphasizes that the keep your powder dry was seen only as an additional insurance. This is made clear in a piece from The Times Literary Supplement, 1908:
http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/217500.html
This is a very important point. So the question is do you think Sirius XM has more than $3.25BB (I think this is close to the current debt load) in assets? If so, then the rest has to go to the lowly shareholders.Quote:
Originally Posted by homer985
Hi, Before the merger Sirius used Ernst & Young - while XM used KPMG. So KPMG is no stranger to XM's debt issues. It has to be they are still analyzing the merger impact.
They have to explain BK to push the Liberty loan through without stockholder vote.
I can't wait to hear that whopper.
KPMG has done XM since 1997
Why did Sirius BOD release their firm Ernst & Young after merger and keep XM's. They had to choose one and they chose the firm working for the more distressed company.
Hey guys...
Wow. I just got back in and have to say I'm a little shocked at what's been going on today. No offense to anyone but wtf?? All the sudden our ship has sunk? BK is back on the table as it was before this deal? Where is all this negativity coming from today? Conspiracy, lawsuits, spinning negative legalese? My first comment on the rhetoric in the 12b is that IMHO you/we are reading standard legal, purposefully negative, cover your utter whole arse, full impact company copy. Uh, does any of this remind anyone of practically ALL information contained in any of the various prospecti..July, October, etc...Every other graph in those damn things says beware! This means you! (like Wylie Cyote LOL). But really those filings all but tell you no way should you invest in our company, we will BK at any time we deem necessary and then laugh in your face, etc..., etc... etc.. Now, I'm not going to take the time to cut and paste anyof that here. But I suggest you go review it for yourself again.
So as most of the scary clauses have already been lifted and presented here..what about this one?
>>Since January 2009, the Company’s staff and resources have been substantially committed to the negotiation and implementation of the 10% Convertible Senior Notes Refinancing, the Investment Agreements and other refinancing and negotiation efforts, which have had a direct impact on the Company’s ability to timely file its Form 10-K.<<
What??? Since January 2009??? No No No. We know these negotiations did not just start in January. Don't we??? Yes we do. But this is standard procedure so as to secure the extension by helping just cause. And it's not even a lie. It's just a spin. They have been engaged since Jan 2009..complete truth. But they've also been engaged since Dec, Nov, Oct, and Sept. Also complete truth. But the latter was conveniently omitted. Look. This is so like what we just went through with our buddy Barack. Am I the only one who noticed he turned into Mr. Hyde as soon as he got into office? Partly why? He went from Mr. Hope and Optimistic to Mr. Gloom and Doom overnight. A: To scare everyone to get what he wanted. Back to SIRI...IMHO this language is clearly to cover their legal arses no matter what. They HAVE to paint the worst possible picture to protect themselves frm lawsuits, etc...Relmor's right about not wanting the SP to take off..just yet. So sure give 'em all the doom they can find. What they gave us is WORST CASE SCENARIO. Which they are beholden to do. Why would they just come out and say ""Ok guys, everythings cool, we got it, we're bad, uh huh, we're bad (that was me invoking Gene Wilder and R. Pryor LOL). They wouldn't. Look..relmor, you know i dig you man but if you want to file a lawsuit against Mel and Co, I wish you luck. I hope you have many years and much cash for your sojurn, cause thats what you're gonna need. Oh, and bring friends...a lot of em!!...) My opinion of course.
Now. Lastly. I just want to revisit what I think we've lost sight of. Can someone please convince me again why Mel wants to BK right here? Or would even freaking dare allow such a thing? 6 months after practially the leveraged deal of the decade? I guess I just need some slapping around to bring me back to the real world since so many seem to believe this is Mels intentions and master plan? Maybe I'm just hanging in fantasyland. Does it make sense to anyone that if he was going to BK this freaking company he just had every opportunity the world could ever offer him? Why on earth would he go through this little freaking exercise only to fall back and throw his hands up in the air and say, "yep that's it, I'm beat..my goose is cooked." Also, tell me why exactly Malone would step in here and head right into BK court 60 days hence? Why, because he had a jones for going to collect his money in BK court? If that happened, can someone tell me how Malone would not look like the BIGGEST JACKASS (sorry Charles, I'm trying..) in the freaking universe while he waits in court for his money back on the Feb Notes (and then trying to get his 21M in default fees that he would be entitled to if this deal falls through)? Can someone tell me why Maffei, in several interviews since the deal, not once mentioned anything to the effect, "Well, we're not even sure if this deal can go through." Can anyone tell me why logically, when JPM was listed as an ally consulting partner at the 12/18 meeting (along with Evercore), they would be adverse to extending what is A REVOLVING, NOT TERM, credit facility, that was known to be inherited in this deal? And if they were adverse, WHY THE F*CK would we not have know about this before now? Can someone tell me why the tranche of Dec '09 10% Notes (whom I believe we know know as Honda according to Homer) was rolled over as SECURED to 2011 if BK was even in the mix behind the scenes? Can someone please tell me wtf, any of these parties would actually have to gain by SIRI pulling a BK right now?? I will await you responses. OK. I'm done. Sorry, I'm a little disappointed by what I'm reading today...no offense to anyone. I just think there's been a lot of fear being generated. I'm not telling anyone how to feel or what to do with their trades or financial resources, I'm just presenting a differrent viewpoint... :tysign:
Because Mel didnt do the best deal for stockholders, he did the best deal for him and his cronnies. Thats why I want to see feel touch the Ergen deal. If they file bk, and passed on the Ergen deal(still not my likely scenario) they will be sued by all major stockholders that day.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hughes
1) The Prior 10K indicated that what is XM is XM and what is Sirius is Sirius. It went on to say that XM was not liable for Sirius and visa versa. I would like to see the asset allocation after the merger was completed. MY bet is that, the Frequency and Subscribers may still belong to the Parent SiriusXM, while the infrastructure belongs to XM Holdings.
2) The recent restructure removed Sirius Debt and put it into the XM Holdings Catagory.
3) The 12B specifically indicated reluctance to FURTHER funding towards the on going concern.
4) The On going concern is Sirius XM and its subsidaries. I am not fully versed in the subsidary relm, but this looks to be a big shell game Mel is playing.
Homer,
Had auto sales began to recover prior to now, I believe there would be hope. The slowdown in auto sales will have put the company in a situation where they are bleeding so much money due to contractual obligations and debt obligations, that the conclusion MUST be that it cannot remain viable for a REASONABLE amount of time....That was the word that got me...
I also respectfully disagree.
With a 9.1 million oem run rate and 1.7% churn they will lose 2 million subscribers in 2009
imromo24,
thanks for that ...... always fascinating to hear the origin of the phrases we adopt as our own....
Agreed. I think its all over nothing. Lets just assume .13 cents is the bottom, until proven otherwise. I am at a half position right now, as I gambled huge today on AUY conference call and won. Im looking to score big tomorrow, alreayd up 40 cents in AH tonight. If gold goes up, and market doesnt tank tomorrow, Im looking at a gain as if sirius went to .23 cents with full position. Tired of sitting on wasted sirius money, so I did something proactive about it today. AUY crushed their quarter, like I thought they would.Quote:
Originally Posted by sl62
Quote:
Originally Posted by bababoooie
XM sats could not broadcast without FCC license. If SiriusXM loses XM infrastructure they lose abilty to broadcast to XM subs. Without XM SiriusXM ceases to exist.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mogami
Have you considered that Sirius XM is leasing the frequency to XM for business purposes. This results in a income for the parent company similar to any station within Sirius to be leased (FCC MINORITY REQUIREMENT) for Broadcast.
cos1000...
I have to respectfully disagree with you about the SP where it relates to the 12b negativity. I'm sorry but .13/.1399/.14 (which has now held through the release of that document and it's contents) and with clearly more buying action (or covering, whichever) than selling, is not where this SP would be if the Street, shorts, etc.. truely believed this deal was in jeapordy of getting done. It would be holding at .08/.09/.10. IMHO...
And why? The Street is following Liberty on this not SIRI. No one in the Liberty camp, Malone/Maffei, nobody, has raised one issue of doubt about this deal. If they had even a clue that this wasn't but a formality, I'm confident something would have leaked out and of course SIRI would be out back as we speak. The stock action of the last 10 days has not been trending negative..rather, it's been more positive. I look at this SP as deal pending hold.
The other issue I forgot in my rant (sorry LOL) is why in the world would Mel go to the trouble of getting that crucial NASD special dispensation to circumvent a shareholder vote on this deal, if BK was just the next step? Sorry, I just don't buy it... JMHO