Originally Posted by
Dr. Dave
Dread -
Because of the swaps, options and futures traded to make the leverage on ultra or leveraged funds, and the corresponding relation to volatility - holding those things long term, particularly long is dangerous. Ie. you don't get 2x, or the 3x on the direxion funds. During low volatility you may get 1.5x and high volatility 3x or so. Also, because it is mulitplied - if you go in the long direction, and take a loss, its really hard to come back.
ie. say underlying IYR rises 25% and theoretically at 2X SRS drops 50% and say both started at $100. IYR needs to fall back 20% to get back to $100. SRS needs a 100% to get back to $100. But if its 2X of IYR, it would only gain 40%. IYR would have to continue to plummet way farther to get that other 60% for SRS.
It's tough, so keep it to trades under a week I'd say.
Check out SRS vs. URE - they should be opposite right... yet if you shorted both from the beginning of this chart - you'd be up in both of them. It seems that if you went long both or short both, you'd be even, but its not the case.
I think folks have caught on to this, so I think you can't actually short them any more - but that was a rumor I heard.
I've lost more than I've earned on those things. Usually from trades lasting more than a few days. They actually had to reverse split FAZ.