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I am with homer... I hope that they didn't try to hide anything otherwise that number is really bad. I knocked 100k off of my guess of 282k (which would have put me pretty damn close) because I figured that was the fudge factor.
There was no clear cut winner (no range picking next time ;)) of the coveted "respect" but, I think its safe to say that everyone should split the difference of homers and Tylers ranges next time around.
Quote:
Originally Posted by homer985
homer, Thats not like you. You really missed it by 19,000, it was 404,000. Come on, you have to be more honest then that.
It is nice being a long. If your target is a min of selling next year or beyond this should just roll off your back. For those that need to get out in a shorter time frame there is still support coming from below. But BE CAREFUL who knows what the next weeks will show.
I figured I would go out on a limb and say that we will turn that corner soon and have a more steady rise. As the 50 and the 200 converge we will eventually break through cleanly and the 200 will become an additional support on a slow climb upwards. As the news gets digested and some finally get fed up and get out at these levels,
Others will start to see the silver lining is now beginning to show. Improved guidance for adjusted income, Maintain cash on hand(slight reduction),reduction in cash costs being realized. Subs did take a hit but in this environment It should be expected. But The silver lining there is that the self-paying subscribers only dropped 1%. Churn takes a small hit,expected, But we Bring on the camry. Isn't the Camry the #1 sold model? And even more the Camry types may be more inclined to satellite radio than the Chrysler/Gm types(who knows ...just guessing). Renegotiated contracts(I Havent seen the details but this could be the biggest thing that came out)
Oh yeah first quarter without BK concerns in awhile :) :) :)
Iphone app still coming ....(never thought this would make a real difference to any substantial amounts of potential subscribers but it will in the media probably)
So in the end Keep heart. We are on the right road.
John,if i was a headline writer for AP,it would say:
HOMER is WRONG ON SUB NUMBER,film at 11pm...JK Homer...
http://www.themarketguardian.com/200...now-shrinking/
here comes the assassins
Airman,your an idiot,moron and have no clue,you can't just come on this Forum and post a perfectly reasonsable sane positive post like this and expect to get away with it,DO YOU? JK Hope you get itQuote:
Originally Posted by airman
:tysign::xmaspresent:
Ive set the table. Dishes out, napkin in place. Im ready to eat some crow today. I was wrong, and Im here to take my lumps.
:smash::guns::hammer::banghead:Quote:
Originally Posted by relmor2003
There vyou go,actually hoping you were right....but knew you drank Kool aid of BM again...
Not really. He predicted neg. subs i think, not sure, i dont even remember. I drank the kool aid on auto sales penetration going up more than just 53 percent. I had it at 65, but thats not till the end of the year, according to Sirus directly.Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM
Also.. I was banking on a ton of people locking in that no internet charge rate. VERY HAPPY THEY DIDNT. Huge plus to ARPU going forward, and obviously revenue as well. Subs down hurts of course, but cutting costs by 23 percent was huge. Redoing the GM contract huge too. More positives today then negatives long term , but for short term traders, we got it in the butt today. I sold all my over core at .53 average, so I dont mind too much. Only bought back a small percentage so, im still a little worried it can take off up(but not too worried ,, as my core will do nicely and i did rebuy back some at .43.)
I realized it after I posted it -- but was too lazy to go in and fix it.Quote:
Originally Posted by john
yes his kool aid couple weeks ago was the investigation of the cardealers and 90% penetration rate,predicted positive subs,but small or flat even..Quote:
Originally Posted by relmor2003
yes expected more with long time extend outs,but your right knew that would affect Arpu going further but with auto's going neg for a while thank god it wasn't there..
Quote:
Originally Posted by homer985
homer, homer, homer, I dont know which is worse the trust issue or the being lazy. I mean coming from me those trates or ok, but you please.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM
I will bet Brandon says he was right. Not hard when you call it both ways. Remember he said something about 2 million subs lost. Of course this is just the first quarter (most likely the worst of them). I wonder what he will say next quarter if they only loss 200,000 or 300,000 subs.
Are you going to be mad if we don't give you crap about it?Quote:
Originally Posted by relmor2003
1. That's not my thing... unless your name is john.
2. At least you backed up your position with something (even if it wasn't spot on).
Quote:
Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz
Hey Charles you are wrong again. What is there to pick on, he said he was wrong already, cant ask for more then that.
you know what's funny is he was quarter right on way to all right if this number holds up over 4quarters...1.6 mil loss of subs,but he wrote it for all the wrong reasons...bet your bottom dollar he'll see this post and write an article about how right he was...Quote:
Originally Posted by john
Not to pick on the issue, but a few things, not specific to any particular person(s).Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM
1. Extrapolating Q1 subs, or any metric over 4 quarters would be a huge error by any measuring stick. It simply does not work that way for subs, costs, revenue, etc.
2. He went from negative 2 million for the year to positive subs for the quarter. That is quite a range.
3. If you know the metrics, and formulate a desent model, you can come pretty close to where you need to be the first time around. If you shoot from the hip, you wind up shooting again and again.
4. A sound understanding of how each OEM partner is counted is imperative in trying to estimate subscribers.
5. Thinking that customer retention efforst"giving away" subscriptions will bring them to positive numbers is foolish as well. The company only has so much wiggle room or the other metrics such as ARPU skew too much.
6. If people buying new cars only become self paying 45% of the time, why would someone think that the used car market would perform any better?
7. If Q3 brought X number of OEM subs, and Q4 brought X number of OEM subs, how would one imagine that the penetration rate incresed so substantially in Q1? Common sense tells you that Sirius XM had to slow their own production to line up with the OEM production. A sudden increase in penetration simply was not in the cards.
6. If people buying new cars only become self paying 45% of the time, why would someone think that the used car market would perform any better?
good point, but after the cost has been booked on the device its really foolish to continue to ignore the possible revenue line it opens up even if you only have a re activation rate of 10% on all the old devices. not just the oem side of it,its a pile of cash why continue to look the other way. or at least tell the investors honestly why nothing has really developed along this concept yet. and the standing reply from management. has been were thinking about it and talking with some company's, is just plain silly.after four years of hearing it.
Tyler i would love to see you do a extensive honest fair review of this very issue as you always do imho.
hell even using the Internet just to really explain the issue and car models by year, what service is available what devices no longer work or cant be supported and to walk the public through the entire process and sign them up. make it simple and easy. i just dont see a great cost in developing and leveraging this area online.but i feel its time management acts effectively on this important issue. they could even modle it where on the retail device side after every so many reactivations a certain amount would be available for free or at a reduced cost because the new sub was special and the company apperciates the new business this could be spun into something viral within cyber land.
if im wrong and or just crazy,please just tell me and many others why and what im missing.
Let's assume that an organized campaign would have a 30% take rate. Spiff payments would need to be made to hundreds, if not thousands of dealers. An accounting nightmare to say the least. They do have programs with carmax, and are rolling out "certified" used cars with several brands. These campaigns are easy to track and manage.Quote:
Originally Posted by tim wallick
The highest value would come from a person simply signing up.
It is a function of dollars reivested into radios a second time.
Further, the revenue share on GM radios made them a burden. The rev share is assigned to the radio. Do you spend $50 on a spiff to a dealer that is going to get you a sub that takes a year to pay for itself?
I will adress this issue further, but I about to board a plane after long delays
The used cars is not rocket science Tyler,but saying it's an accounting nightmare is unacceptable..They have automobile dealer associations for regions and national,you make the deal with those Assn. and not the weasel little corner guys..dealer gets 3 months of premiums and customer gets activated at the dealership for free 3 month trial..SiriusXM gets customer's info to help it convert to self paying..