SIRI Intraday Thread: Wednesday April 22

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Originally Posted by Newman

sxm: Are you trading with your entire holdings? That is your key mistake... of course, I don't know what your financial situation is. If you do not have a whole lot of shares, it is best to buy and hold. I would never want to trade my entire position for exactly that reason: It is too difficult to call tops and bottoms.

If you have a decent sized portfolio, then just trade your position in 20% chunks. And come here for advice on buys and sells, but remember to DYODD.

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I learned the core thing from a long time trader a while ago. After seeing him in action for a while, I was hooked. Then I saw how effective using it with SiriusXM can be as well. Cos and sl62 really hammered the core point for MONTHS now. John...Newman.. Me...John....Brandon... I think we all trade arounda core, but it was bought for pennies. If you dont have a low core? Start one at .40(yesterday), or .42. Today, you might just have to hope it hits back to .42. Anything higher and your core might go underwater for a bit. If you dont care about that, then go for it. If your a gambler, put a buy in at .36 and see if it hits.

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Originally Posted by sxminvestor

Here we go again.

If Sirius gets above where I bought it last and I sell again and then chase higher, I could have even less shares. By the time Sirius gets to a dollar, I will have no shares left.
My strategy to sell high and buy more lower keeps backfiring because I don't sell near the top of the run, then feel I messed up, buy back slightly higher with less shares and then the drop. Example, sold at .50 after buying in at .33, then bought back at .54 afterr seeing it go as high as .63. Well you know where it hit yesterday .40.

My life in this stock - anyone else make the same stupid moves ?

With patience I could have got back in at .40 cents & screwed up royally once agan.

It looks like we will creep higher again to .low .50's again over the next few days. Then I suppose we could either get a big move up into the earnings call or may have to wait for the release to see a significant move.

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You and other would be day-traders of this stock ...think about doing this:

Buy the shares you want to buy by evaluating personal risk and figure out what you think the stock should be worth. HOLD them till the 80% mark of that number and re-evaluate..(of course re-evaluate on any substantive news)


In your mind buy 100k shares in your mind ... on "paper" do your day trading. Do this for at least a month. When you have a month(hell even a 2 week stretch) where you are 60% daily gains AND an overall up and also up compared to if you had just held. Then "consider" doing "some" day trading. Wade in slowly.

I wasn't singling you out, but part of the problem in this stock is too many retail investors that are trying to "trade" their way to riches. Most won't. Most will trade their way out of possible solid gains. This is the plan of the smart"er" money. They want to take it from you.

Of course do what you want but the above is a good exercise and will open your eyes a bit. I know there are some sophisticated investors here that know alot more than me also. Just an exercise for us less seasoned investors.
Oh and if you do day-trade then use the above method .. hold a core when it is stocks that you feel will rise over time.
As relmor says .... best of both worlds:)

yeah tripp, your LONG card has been pulled :p

Ha Imromo, your avatar cracks me up. Do you update it evey market day? :D

lol, yes-ish, thanks

Daily mantra has a check mark...

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I have a check list for selling....not until the following are met:
1. iphone app released
2. synergies realized
3. although #2 is synergies synergies is one thing, but having 2 times the bandwidth WHO-AH!
4. Liberty media...i think we just had 2 mergers in the last year
5. When Mel and company say "We are profitable"
6. Economy turns around (i think its happened but ill wait until its announced, and then wait at least another quarter after that announcement)
7. Auto industry posts better numbers
8. ARPU...up up and away

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http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/...ap6321491.html

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Ahead of the Bell: Goldman upgrades Ford, autos

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thats not fair cause most of my shares still havnt been touched :(

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Originally Posted by relmor2003

I learned the core thing from a long time trader a while ago. After seeing him in action for a while, I was hooked. Then I saw how effective using it with SiriusXM can be as well. Cos and sl62 really hammered the core point for MONTHS now. John...Newman.. Me...John....Brandon... I think we all trade arounda core, but it was bought for pennies. If you dont have a low core? Start one at .40(yesterday), or .42. Today, you might just have to hope it hits back to .42. Anything higher and your core might go underwater for a bit. If you dont care about that, then go for it. If your a gambler, put a buy in at .36 and see if it hits.

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My core is the shares I purchased at 0.058 right in the middle of the BK scare. Since then, I have never touched my core. It is true that I have lost some gains by day trading. The initial spike up, I sold a chunk at 24 and then another chunk at 32 during the spike up to 38ish? It retraced and I was able to buy back at 27, meaning I lost money on the 24 shares, but made money on the 32 shares. This latest spike, I did not expect to see 63 so quickly, so I placed a sell in at 55. Of course, it hit. Luckily, I was home watching the trading that day, and set another chunk to sell at 62. Bought all of those shares (and then some) back at 42. That was a nice gain.

For those looking to start day trading: DO NOT CHASE THE STOCK UP. If you don't know exactly where it is going, wait until it gets there, don't try to beat it there. This stock has some pretty predictable trend patterns. Learn them, live them, love them, but don't TRADE THEM until you do know them. Learn the slightest bit of technical trading or find a site that will give you the information, or even come here and usually people are mentioning resistance and support. Use those numbers to help guide your trading patterns. And for god sakes: DO NOT DAY TRADE IF YOU ARE NOT THERE TO WATCH THE TRADING!!

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Originally Posted by imromo24

Daily mantra has a check mark...



http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/...ap6321491.html

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sweet! glad I bought Ford at 2 a few months back. wish i bought more, of course!

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Originally Posted by Newman

DO NOT DAY TRADE IF YOU ARE NOT THERE TO WATCH THE TRADING!!

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Hi, Yes the main thing a day trader needs is the ability to actually watch the market from open to close. You have to keep your finger on the stocks pulse.

By the way, here is my strategy for the next couple of weeks:

I think Sirius is going to trade in a range for 1-2 weeks. This range will be up a few cents, down a few cents. I don't trade for a few cents, so I probably will not be doing any trading. Those with large portfolios would disagree with me here. Oh well. This range will slowly move up into the high 40s and bounce around between 45 and 49. 50 cents is nothing but a psychological barrier, and once it breaks 50, it will break out to 63 again and test that area. If it breaks 63, I really do not know where it will go because we really don't have any real resistance between 63 and $1, except maybe around 75-80ish. That said, remember I said that the stock trades in a semi-predictable pattern? I WILL NOT SELL ANY SHARES ON THE INITIAL SPIKE. The initial spike will take it into the mid-50s, then start trending down for a few minutes/hour or so. I don't buy the headfake reversal. It will spike again to around 63. I will sell about 50% of my PLAY SHARES (NONE of my core). If it continues to spike, it will hit around 75ish, then I can lock in the rest of my gains (again, this is with PLAY shares. I do NOT touch my core. My core is LONG and will not be traded at any point). It will retrace at that point, and I will be able to rebuy around the 55 mark.

Remember, DYODD, I am not a financial advisor, and all that crap. That is just my plan.

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Originally Posted by underway

sweet! glad I bought Ford at 2 a few months back. wish i bought more, of course!

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I had ford at 1.91 around the same time, sold when it spiked to 3.75, thinking that the deadline for GM/Chrystler would send one of them into BK, and eventhough ford wasn't in danger, it would trade with the sector.

Damn government had to step in and give them money anyways... bastards.

Tried to rebuy yesterday. Thought my order had been filled (I had like 8 trades yesterday that filled) and then today I find out that it didnt... Not a happy camper.

hey does any1 know how to choose which shares to sell on ameritrade, i dont see that option anywhere.

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Originally Posted by Newman

I had ford at 1.91 around the same time, sold when it spiked to 3.75, thinking that the deadline for GM/Chrystler would send one of them into BK, and eventhough ford wasn't in danger, it would trade with the sector.

Damn government had to step in and give them money anyways... bastards.

Tried to rebuy yesterday. Thought my order had been filled (I had like 8 trades yesterday that filled) and then today I find out that it didnt... Not a happy camper.

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NEWMAN! I love sayin' that....old seinfeld fan and all that....

yeah, that sux. I just wish I had bought enough shares to really matter, but I didn't. Have a ton of siri shares though......LOL! SIRI CC and Q1 results plus guidance should give us the real upward move.

Newer traders should read Newmans post. He has a plan. You HAVE to have a plan. The plan can suck, but at least its a plan. If you have a plan, news neutral, you dont trade emotionally. Of course, a good plan is better than a bad plan. I would say Newman has a good plan. Well thought out, takes into account manipulation, has targets at reasonable levels, knows the power of the MM's, and has learned from the past to apply it to his trading of this stock. Hes not just jumping in and buying and looking to sell higher at any time in the day. A good plan should take into account all aspects and possibilities.

My portfolio has done amazing over the past 2 months, thanks in large part to SIRI, but there are some other winners in there. I rode BAC up from just under 5 to over 8, but sold out early. Ford, as mentioned above.

Here is the 90 day image from Scottrade of my performance....

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Originally Posted by underway

SIRI CC and Q1 results plus guidance should give us the real upward move.

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That is my only concern. CC must be held by May 15th (Friday). They typically announce results on a Tuesday (12th) or Thursday (14th). They put out the announcment about the CC usually the Thursday before (7th). This puts my 2 week time frame RIGHT AT the time they will announce the CC. I don't know if that will hinder or help the stock price. Then, I have absolutely no idea how earnings will be, so I don't know how the stock will react. If they have great earnings and minimal/no subscriber loss, the stock could skyrocket. If they have half-assed earnings and serious subscriber loss, we are all screwed short term. I just don't know what to expect out of Q1 (typically the worst quarter of all).

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Originally Posted by Newman

That is my only concern. CC must be held by May 15th (Friday). They typically announce results on a Tuesday (12th) or Thursday (14th). They put out the announcment about the CC usually the Thursday before (7th). This puts my 2 week time frame RIGHT AT the time they will announce the CC. I don't know if that will hinder or help the stock price. Then, I have absolutely no idea how earnings will be, so I don't know how the stock will react. If they have great earnings and minimal/no subscriber loss, the stock could skyrocket. If they have half-assed earnings and serious subscriber loss, we are all screwed short term. I just don't know what to expect out of Q1 (typically the worst quarter of all).

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newman, thats what i keep saying. Q1 is a huge question mark, thats why all the value will be gained in Q2cc and Q3cc when auto recovery and iphone app are included in the assessments.

i keep making a big deal about the iphone app. i believe it is...slacker and pandora have over 1 mill downloads each.... iphone app will help reduce churn and bring in new customers. more importantly , it is a far better product than the other 2.

so im guessing no one knows, its hard to hold a core if i cant choose which shares to sell.