SIRI Weekly Thread 8-10-09

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Originally Posted by candleman

OK Johnny, I hate to admit this in public....so let's pretend this is private LOL

I check it out daily. It is my source for information on what stocks to swing trade. If the fool calls it a hot stock, it usually is, for at least a few days. I'm not a rich guy, but I'm very secure so to speak. And I actually owe that to stock picks that I've made using the FOOL.

Now, remember that is not public knowlege. The guys on this site would just laugh their asses off at me, and I don't want that;)

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you won't hear me laughing,Gardner has some well documented winners over the years..

As we attack .57 and then .58 again..

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Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM

I agree on the definition completely,but those who were saying it back then ,3 years as you say,was wise advice,if not early and based on historical bull runs ending,and glad they said it..helped me make my decision,as you know when the Neg quarters come it is too late to get out of investments affected by it...so better early or late than never is my motto...Of course my wife was in the mortgage bussiness and laid off in first wave,so had inside info so to speak...

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Are you kidding look at what the market was then and what it went up to just before it took the dive. We are not talking about a few hundred points but try a few thousand. These people were saying this kind of crap as far back as the beginning of 2006. When unemployment went under 5% they were saying that it is false because many of those jobs were at much lower pay rates. WELL WHAT ARE THOSE JOBS NOW with a unemployment rate at 9.4% (and it will rise again), are those jobs somehow better now. This is my point, if the economy sucked back in 2006 with under 5% unemployment and a growing GDP then it really really REALLY sucks now. I will also tell you this we will not get back to the point, when the MSM was saying the economy just sucked back in 2006 for a very very long time to come. For these same jackasses to do a flip flop with the conditions being far worse then they were back when they first started to say it, is ridiculous. I will bet you the MSM starts to say after the rate gos to 10% and then comes back to 9.4% that we are in a great economy. Lets remember thats is twice as bad unemployment as when they started to say the economy sucks. I bet we are at or above 9.4% unemployment or above for at least another year.

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Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM

Relmor,what do you take from the chart Bass posted?

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I like it. I am a believer in elliot waves, to a degree, although penny stocks with high SI are hard to read using this theory. But Ive done it anyway. I agree with some of it. If a charts worked that many times before, I would buy into it, sure. But only to .60, then I am cautiously optomistic at that point. Unless volume can get going here.

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Originally Posted by john

Are you kidding look at what the market was then and what it went up to just before it took the dive. We are not talking about a few hundred points but try a few thousand. These people were saying this kind of crap as far back as the beginning of 2006. When unemployment went under 5% they were saying that it is false because many of those jobs were at much lower pay rates. WELL WHAT ARE THOSE JOBS NOW with a unemployment rate at 9.4% (and it will rise again), are those jobs somehow better now. This is my point, if the economy sucked back in 2006 with under 5% unemployment and a growing GDP then it really really REALLY sucks now. I will also tell you this we will not get back to the point, when the MSM was saying the economy just sucked back in 2006 for a very very long time to come. For these same jackasses to do a flip flop with the conditions being far worse then they were back when they first started to say it, is ridiculous. I will bet you the MSM starts to say after the rate gos to 10% and then comes back to 9.4% that we are in a great economy. Lets remember thats is twice as bad unemployment as when they started to say the economy sucks. I bet we are at or above 9.4% unemployment or above for at least another year.

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John,what you are saying is true,but i'm talking when Dow and S&P 500 hit historical highs of 14000 and 1500 respectively,i and many others knew then the run was over,but still hoped it would continue to rise on as we now know was an old fashioned bubble or ponzi scheme in housing and investment bonds and CDS's..the problem with this unemployment figure is it hit White collar 100k to 250k jobs the most,not blue collar as in past recessions.Hell it wiped out wall street as we know it,because no new 401k money (which has and will continue to prop up the markets)was coming in to sustain the upward slide..Unemployment is actually around 14% now if you take into account all that are not counted because they exhausted insurance and took 2 part time jobs to get by.

P.S.the bottm hit IMHO in march and if your noty in soon you will miss 25% gain by next year,Feb.
You already missed 27%gain,but it takes more to get back to March 07 numbers.

My wave count, posted in April or May I think, has wave 1 from .17 cents to .63 cents. So to be out of wave 2, correction wave, would require a break of .63(and it usually is occupied by at least a 33% up move from the previous high), which would take us to the .80 to $1 area. So if it goes to .67 and reverses, I would have to reevaluate the wave count, and either immediately give credance to the break out, and buy in on it, or call it a false breakout, still in wave 2, and a big pullback would be due. Why penny stocks and elliot wave theory is hard here, too easy to give false counts. See, if it goes to .64, do you redo your count? Call it a blow off failed break out? Start charting to the next upleg? Why elliot wave is more usefull medium to long term, and as a tool in retrospect of information. For instance , if it goes to .64, and back down to .50, were not in a new wave. If it goes from .70 to .60, are we in a new wave? Even though the usually 33% up move wasnt there? Thats the major problem with it. Hard to short term trade on.

I am not bragging just very excited and thought id share! This is my first major investment and I am up 308.4%, take that mutual fund advisor! :)

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Originally Posted by relmor2003

My wave count, posted in April or May I think, has wave 1 from .17 cents to .63 cents. So to be out of wave 2, correction wave, would require a break of .63(and it usually is occupied by at least a 33% up move from the previous high), which would take us to the .80 to $1 area. So if it goes to .67 and reverses, I would have to reevaluate the wave count, and either immediately give credance to the break out, and buy in on it, or call it a false breakout, still in wave 2, and a big pullback would be due. Why penny stocks and elliot wave theory is hard here, too easy to give false counts. See, if it goes to .64, do you redo your count? Call it a blow off failed break out? Start charting to the next upleg? Why elliot wave is more usefull medium to long term, and as a tool in retrospect of information. For instance , if it goes to .64, and back down to .50, were not in a new wave. If it goes from .70 to .60, are we in a new wave? Even though the usually 33% up move wasnt there? Thats the major problem with it. Hard to short term trade on.

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good stuff thanks relmor,i remember yor wave post back then..

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Originally Posted by Hopeful

I am not bragging just very excited and thought id share! This is my first major investment and I am up 308.4%, take that mutual fund advisor! :)

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Hopeful, that is just excellent. You should be very proud of the choice to buy into this stock. I think you said earlier that you were in your mid twenties. Just imagine how many more wise picks you can make! Some people get very wealthy by making wise choices early in life. Good job man!

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Originally Posted by Hopeful

I am not bragging just very excited and thought id share! This is my first major investment and I am up 308.4%, take that mutual fund advisor! :)

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Great job hopefull,but just remember this is probably a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy into a stock like this at this price,.10 to .50 cent range.
So a little experienced advice to you,don't go searching for the next SXM,you probably won't find this perfect storm again,just DYODD on any stock you invest in,it's really not this easy..:D

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Originally Posted by candleman

Hopeful, that is just excellent. You should be very proud of the choice to buy into this stock. I think you said earlier that you were in your mid twenties. Just imagine how many more wise picks you can make! Some people get very wealthy by making wise choices early in life. Good job man!

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Thanks Candleman, Let's hope I can make a few more good picks in my life lol!

Thanks Johnny, I will take that good advice! Good Luck!!! :D

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Originally Posted by BDivano

Thanks, currently have 20k @ a buy of .54, hopefully it hits.

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Hi BDivano,

Welcome to Sirius Buzz! :)

You and I are sitting in the same boat. I have a buy in for .54 also.
Mine's sitting there gathering dust. :( I'm sure yours is too. I sold last
week at .57, and that number flew by.

But to put a positive spin on the I've Been Screwed Story,
there's always next week. :D

Good to see you posting. :)

Julie

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Originally Posted by Hopeful

I am not bragging just very excited and thought id share! This is my first major investment and I am up 308.4%, take that mutual fund advisor! :)

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Hi Hopeful,

Wow!! Congratulations, good job. :clap:

Julie :)

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Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM

John,what you are saying is true,but i'm talking when Dow and S&P 500 hit historical highs of 14000 and 1500 respectively,i and many others knew then the run was over,but still hoped it would continue to rise on as we now know was an old fashioned bubble or ponzi scheme in housing and investment bonds and CDS's..the problem with this unemployment figure is it hit White collar 100k to 250k jobs the most,not blue collar as in past recessions.Hell it wiped out wall street as we know it,because no new 401k money (which has and will continue to prop up the markets)was coming in to sustain the upward slide..Unemployment is actually around 14% now if you take into account all that are not counted because they exhausted insurance and took 2 part time jobs to get by.

P.S.the bottm hit IMHO in march and if your noty in soon you will miss 25% gain by next year,Feb.
You already missed 27%gain,but it takes more to get back to March 07 numbers.

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No not really I got just over half out by the time it hit 13,100 and was pissing and moaning with every 100 point increase. I never thought it should have been that high that fast even in a good economy. I am in trouble now because I cant get a interest rate on CDs, I hate to say it but I am kinda hoping for hyper inflation.

Thanks Julie, hopefully we have happy days ahead. I hope to reduce my avg sp down and into the mid to low .60s prior to it launching, :)

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Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM

Great job hopefull,but just remember this is probably a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy into a stock like this at this price,.10 to .50 cent range.
So a little experienced advice to you,don't go searching for the next SXM,you probably won't find this perfect storm again,just DYODD on any stock you invest in,it's really not this easy..:D

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EASY??? I guess if you could remain calm through all the insanity...

Congrats hopeful, you made it!

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Originally Posted by relmor2003

My wave count, posted in April or May I think, has wave 1 from .17 cents to .63 cents, where I have C. So to be out of wave 2, correction wave, would require a break of .63(and it usually is occupied by at least a 33% up move from the previous high), which would take us to the .80 to $1 area. So if it goes to .67 and reverses, I would have to reevaluate the wave count, and either immediately give credance to the break out, and buy in on it, or call it a false breakout, still in wave 2, and a big pullback would be due. Why penny stocks and elliot wave theory is hard here, too easy to give false counts. See, if it goes to .64, do you redo your count? Call it a blow off failed break out? Start charting to the next upleg? Why elliot wave is more usefull medium to long term, and as a tool in retrospect of information. For instance , if it goes to .64, and back down to .50, were not in a new wave. If it goes from .70 to .60, are we in a new wave? Even though the usually 33% up move wasnt there? Thats the major problem with it. Hard to short term trade on.

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I agree with the larger wave structure you have... ie. the .17 to .63 as 1. I don't have a 1 there, as you can only put so many annotations on a single chart, so the 12345ABC is the fractal down from the larger count. The big 2 would be at C, I think - not looking at the chart at the moment.

I also don't use the elliot waves for price targets, I don't think that's their real intent, so I use other TA, I just use the EW to see if it agrees with my direction. But this chart got my sell out at 0.62, along with some others to define the support and resistance zones from both classic chart patterns and other types SR. I haven't gotten in trouble yet with this stock, it seems to be drawn to its SR targets, whether price/fib/whatever - have gotten in plenty of trouble with others though, lol.

I expect 3 of the larger wave you're counting to match SR at 0.69-0.72, or at least a pause there, minor subwave (don't have the exact nomenclature off the top of my head)... but that's must me, and as I realize, not all targets hit or are called right, nor does any pattern play off to the penny, and definatley not here to argue with you. I pointed the chart to bass, to show the pennant, not the wave count. Anyway, thanks for your input and reminding me to keep track of the larger wave structure - if these really even exist - it's all tea leaf reading to me sometimes, lol.

mmmm, This feels good.

Another good week to be a SIRI owner.

I hope you all have a great weekend!

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Originally Posted by Dr. Dave

I agree with the larger wave structure you have... ie. the .17 to .63 as 1. I don't have a 1 there, as you can only put so many annotations on a single chart, so the 12345ABC is the fractal down from the larger count. The big 2 would be at C, I think - not looking at the chart at the moment.

I also don't use the elliot waves for price targets, I don't think that's their real intent, so I use other TA, I just use the EW to see if it agrees with my direction. But this chart got my sell out at 0.62, along with some others to define the support and resistance zones from both classic chart patterns and other types SR. I haven't gotten in trouble yet with this stock, it seems to be drawn to its SR targets, whether price/fib/whatever - have gotten in plenty of trouble with others though, lol.

I expect 3 of the larger wave you're counting to match SR at 0.69-0.72, or at least a pause there, minor subwave (don't have the exact nomenclature off the top of my head)... but that's must me, and as I realize, not all targets hit or are called right, nor does any pattern play off to the penny, and definatley not here to argue with you. I pointed the chart to bass, to show the pennant, not the wave count. Anyway, thanks for your input and reminding me to keep track of the larger wave structure - if these really even exist - it's all tea leaf reading to me sometimes, lol.

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O , sorry, my bad. Definately was no crticism or correction at all.
Just looking at your chart, and aswering Irish's question about it. Good information. Just speaking generally, not necessarily about SiriusXM. Most elliot wave users dont use it to day trade, but like you said, identify, and define ranges, and turning points. Also useful with cycle theories.
And I dont bother with disecting sub waves past abc of major 1, for example. Im giving .17 to .63 credit as a major 1 wave, due to the time its spent under .63. Every day longer, more validates that as a major breakout point, for the next higher ranges. If .63 cents held back then for only 1 week, then the major wave 1 up, dominant trend count would start higher.
It would be silly to say wave 2 lasted one day, then major wave 3 started the next day too, and went to .67. LOL Its fun TA thats for sure. Fib. counts are crucial in elliot wave theory.

Well to all enjoy your weekend as we ended up at .5654 and looking good for monday also...will check in on the weekend from time to time,but busy this weekend,good luck and everyone have a drink on me...

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Originally Posted by imromo24

EASY??? I guess if you could remain calm through all the insanity...

Congrats hopeful, you made it!

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Thanks Romo! Ahahaha I was a mess through it all, but I liked it! It was like putting 25 grand on 33 black at the roulette table and watching the little ball bouncing in and out of numbers! :D