Sirius just surprise reported 4Q - 10Q

Relmor, while everything you say is true I think that you may be unduly pessimistic in a few places. I agree that churn will go up in 1Q but increased churn and increased customer service in 4Q could certainly be chalked up partially to the merger implementation and the addition of services. I'm thinking that they lost some subs due to channel elimination, a few of which were restored later (Buzzsaw, etc.?) If I lost my business, I'd have to cancel some subs, for sure. I'm sure that some cancellations were due to job losses. They might be restored when jobs come back.

I am thinking that Sirius didn't have a large enough structure in place to handle everything and the added pressure of debt restructuring, which I think caught them by surprise as well. I have noticed marketing increasing a little since year's end but I agree that they need more.

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Originally Posted by relmor2003

Now have a trend of increasing churn, lower car sales, and spending less on advertising, while incurring more costs to run billing and customer service. Synergies of contracts are years away. So once again, if car sales improve in 2010, and sat synergies are realized, and the churn stays low, they will have a future.

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Wow! This forum sure went negative in a hurry. I think its funny how most times we are criticising the media for jumping on every negative aspect they can find and using that as the basis for their predictions going forward. This time, it seems like a lot of the posters here are now doing the same thing. I for one have only been trading in this stock since last fall, and everytime I started to worry about its future, Mel and his associates have done something to remedy the fears and make progress towards a viable business model.
NOw that being said, I understand there are some dissappointments with the numbers released yesterday and perhaps they are not advterising enough for our liking. There is definately some opportunity to improve on that front. But I will tell you, that I for one am going to reserve judgement until after this conference call and allow them to explain how they plan on moving forward.
From what I've seen over the last several months, Mel and the guys from Liberty, probably already have a plan of action. So dont be surprised if they change a few of your minds in the coming weeks.
Either way, I think we need to understand that there is a process and steps needed to reach goals. Throwing Shit at a wall and hoping it sticks is not an effective way to etablish a base to grow from.

I mean, with all the uncertainty in the market and economy today, who is to say what will work and what wont. So lets give them a chance to prove themselves. After all, I dont remember any of us getting an offer to run a major corporation lately!

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Originally Posted by Demian

The iPhone app driven subs could outpace OEM driven subs this year.......

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I respectfully disagree...UNLESS they offer a free 1 month (or more) trial. The number of new subs will be minimal, while most of the users will instead be current subscribers. All they have to do is offer a free month but, I am willing to bet they aren't smart enough to realize this.

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Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz

I respectfully disagree...UNLESS they offer a free 1 month (or more) trial. The number of new subs will be minimal, while most of the users will instead be current subscribers. All they have to do is offer a free month but, I am willing to bet they aren't smart enough to realize this.

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Given the difficulty in getting anyone to bite with this meltdown economy - I'd almost think they'd have to offer the free trial just to get folks to consider... If they do - I still think this could be a positive step toward the sub increase Demian hinted at....

I'm interested in hearing what Mel puts out in the CC tomorrow... wish I could snap my fingers and move time forward - I hate waiting...

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Originally Posted by relmor2003

What IPhone app? Exactly....
Only one we know about was denied. Until I see otherwise, they dont have one.

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They have an in-house app that is in development... it is in beta. Confirmed via first hand source close to the situation.

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Originally Posted by MLSiri

Today 11:25 AM
Sirus XM needs to diversify its product line and not be so dependent on OEM - the subject of so much handwringing and negativity here and elsewhere.

With the partnership we now have with Liberty, Sirius XM will never be the same. I'm banking on a positive influence. New marketing approach has to/will be initiated, new and amazing revenue streams will be hardwired into our portfolios - if you're patient and give the new media monster a chance to emerge.

Examples: Free signals to existing satradios and terri stations will generate new subs for premium as well as new ad revenue, Internet and portable devises will allow on-demand replay from deep song libraries (al la DTV/Comcast), more used and rental car contracts will hook users, bundled services with DTV will soon arrive, GPS services will be available, international expansion will occur, more varied subscriber options and equipment will be available, etc., etc., etc.

Last year's merger and goodwill charges will be transformed into advertising dollars this year that will spark interest in the new SXM. Hell, I bet we'll even see a Sirius XM Super Bowl ad next year!

Just purchased two lifetime subs for me and the wife, and I have 40k SIRI shares. I'd say I'm somewhat vested in this company's future.

Go Sirius XM!

PS - Shields are up to deflect any crap if tomorrow's CC is a dud (not that anyone would even bother - LOL). Somehow, I believe this will not be necessary.

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Today 11:38 AM
asm610

Maybe they will listen to you....absolutely no one listened to me yesterday when i pretty much said the same thing!

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Today 12:18 PM
MLSiri

I doubt it, ASM, but we're on the same page. I guess they'd rather debate past OEM stats and sub rates rather than dare to envision something beyond what they've already experienced...

I understand the desire to make a profit on the pops and buy on the dips, but that's part of what maybe keeping this stock shackled IMHO. This, and the MM's having a good time in our sandbox.


Very little volume the past hour or so. Looks like folks are holding out for their asks rather than weakening and going lower. Level II has almost 2 million shares stacked up on .16. Not many 100 share trades either. It's quiet.... too quiet LMAO

I can just feel the strain of the collective breath-holding awaiting the CC.

Keep the positive vibes and vision coming, ASM!

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NewtoSirius, a couple of us are keeping the faith! Join us and start a movement!

Long and longer (if necessary!)

Optimism is a refreshing change - even some of the longer term longs in here have been getting negative more lately - welcome to the board....

As for holding our breath prior to tomorrow's CC - If I hold it any longer I will be setting a world record for holding my breath (on SIRI)

Patience.........

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Originally Posted by MLSiri

NewtoSirius, a couple of us are keeping the faith! Join us and start a movement!

Long and longer (if necessary!)

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If we intend to reach our GOALS and Aspirations, then Optimism and Faith will play an intrical role in our success. If you are the team with these beliefs, then count me in!

For others who are only willing to hide in the closet during these turbulent times because of fear of the unknown, just know, I will be eating your share of the pudding!

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Originally Posted by NewtoSirius

Wow! This forum sure went negative in a hurry. I think its funny how most times we are criticising the media for jumping on every negative aspect they can find and using that as the basis for their predictions going forward. This time, it seems like a lot of the posters here are now doing the same thing. I for one have only been trading in this stock since last fall, and everytime I started to worry about its future, Mel and his associates have done something to remedy the fears and make progress towards a viable business model.
NOw that being said, I understand there are some dissappointments with the numbers released yesterday and perhaps they are not advterising enough for our liking. There is definately some opportunity to improve on that front. But I will tell you, that I for one am going to reserve judgement until after this conference call and allow them to explain how they plan on moving forward.
From what I've seen over the last several months, Mel and the guys from Liberty, probably already have a plan of action. So dont be surprised if they change a few of your minds in the coming weeks.
Either way, I think we need to understand that there is a process and steps needed to reach goals. Throwing Shit at a wall and hoping it sticks is not an effective way to etablish a base to grow from.

I mean, with all the uncertainty in the market and economy today, who is to say what will work and what wont. So lets give them a chance to prove themselves. After all, I dont remember any of us getting an offer to run a major corporation lately!

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Perspectives change once you have sold some or all of your shares and you are anticipating the SP to fall so you can buy back in. :-)

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Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz

They have an in-house app that is in development... it is in beta. Confirmed via first hand source close to the situation.

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Thats fine. But Q1 will have no effect, and tick tock tick tock an any effect for Q2. Justifying why I shaved my position temporarily, as I am hitting on points Mel will be drilled on tomorrow, and what the MSM may use against them until they can break some news on new revenue. So baring any major new revenue announcements, we have a company that missed its quarter, will have a terrible Q1, and looking for an identity and a direction from Mel. Either Mel delivers now, or I will see .12 cents again on my rebuy. I was asked what would I do if the SP took off after the CC, based on substantial factual good news, I will gladly panic buy and watch my core position grow nicely, and enjoy my gains with everyone one else. Nothing would make me happier than being pissed it didnt hit .12 cents. I hope I panic buy at .20 cents(my core position will have seen nice gains) and I buy at .20 cents and it continues up to .30 cents. This is a day dream of mine daily, and I stopped investing on them. I have to use the past as a guide, and in the past Mel has not impressed on the CC. Now, I would argue he had reasons before, and he has none now. So if he tanks this call I will assume its because he simply refuses to communicate effectively to stockholders, and with a R/S looming, this stock might not get legs for quite a bit.

Alright, PT Rick and NTS, we have a foursome! I think ASM has the honor.

Fore!! SXM is hitting into the group in front of us!

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Originally Posted by MLSiri

Alright, PT Rick and NTS, we have a foursome! I think ASM has the honor.

Fore!! SXM is hitting into the group in front of us!

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Sounds Good! Out of the way up there jimjack, I am on pace for a birdie!

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Originally Posted by relmor2003

Thats fine. But Q1 will have no effect, and tick tock tick tock an any effect for Q2. Justifying why I shaved my position temporarily, as I am hitting on points Mel will be drilled on tomorrow, and what the MSM may use against them until they can break some news on new revenue. So baring any major new revenue announcements, we have a company that missed its quarter, will have a terrible Q1, and looking for an identity and a direction from Mel. Either Mel delivers now, or I will see .12 cents again on my rebuy. I was asked what would I do if the SP took off after the CC, based on substantial factual good news, I will gladly panic buy and watch my core position grow nicely, and enjoy my gains with everyone one else. Nothing would make me happier than being pissed it didnt hit .12 cents. I hope I panic buy at .20 cents(my core position will have seen nice gains) and I buy at .20 cents and it continues up to .30 cents. This is a day dream of mine daily, and I stopped investing on them. I have to use the past as a guide, and in the past Mel has not impressed on the CC. Now, I would argue he had reasons before, and he has none now. So if he tanks this call I will assume its because he simply refuses to communicate effectively to stockholders, and with a R/S looming, this stock might not get legs for quite a bit.

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I dont know about that it is a gamble I am not taking. I think that Mel comes out swinging Thur. Then again greed has nailed me before so this would not be the first time.

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Originally Posted by NewtoSirius

Sounds Good! Out of the way up there jimjack, I am on pace for a birdie!

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You get 'em Tiger! LOL

relmore,cos,homer, sl65 etc....

should there be a R/S in the future would Liberty shares also split? Didn't they get 12M shares with the deal?

NOw that Liberty is involved do you think after any (speculative) R/S ydo ou think the shorts will take over again? Or will that issue have to wait until we see what the status of the company, market, world is in at that time?

I assume that a R/S would have no effect on their 40% ownership of company.

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Originally Posted by MLSiri

Alright, PT Rick and NTS, we have a foursome! I think ASM has the honor.

Fore!! SXM is hitting into the group in front of us!

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You don't want me in this foursome....I'm the divet king!

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Originally Posted by asm610

You don't want me in this foursome....I'm the divet king!

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No prob! maybe we can get Charles Barkely and Bill Murray in here too!

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Originally Posted by MLSiri

No prob! maybe we can get Charles Barkely and Bill Murray in here too!

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MLsiri...thanks for lightening things up...I needed it today.

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Originally Posted by relmor2003

Thats fine. But Q1 will have no effect, and tick tock tick tock an any effect for Q2. Justifying why I shaved my position temporarily, as I am hitting on points Mel will be drilled on tomorrow, and what the MSM may use against them until they can break some news on new revenue. So baring any major new revenue announcements, we have a company that missed its quarter, will have a terrible Q1, and looking for an identity and a direction from Mel. Either Mel delivers now, or I will see .12 cents again on my rebuy. I was asked what would I do if the SP took off after the CC, based on substantial factual good news, I will gladly panic buy and watch my core position grow nicely, and enjoy my gains with everyone one else. Nothing would make me happier than being pissed it didnt hit .12 cents. I hope I panic buy at .20 cents(my core position will have seen nice gains) and I buy at .20 cents and it continues up to .30 cents. This is a day dream of mine daily, and I stopped investing on them. I have to use the past as a guide, and in the past Mel has not impressed on the CC. Now, I would argue he had reasons before, and he has none now. So if he tanks this call I will assume its because he simply refuses to communicate effectively to stockholders, and with a R/S looming, this stock might not get legs for quite a bit.

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Rel...

Nothing wrong with your strategy. There are people here who don't get it that there is no crime against shifting or hedging a position. So you miss a penny or two or three..BFD!!! All of us who rode this pig down for 6 months, did so in good faith..day in, day out. Nothing stays the same forever, nor should it ever. Many of us never anticipated having to even wait this long before a decent correction to get us back towards the right side of the trade. My goal in the stock market is not to get in one stock, get pummeled, and then wait a few years until it turns a profit. If anyone is just invested in this company to hold it for a few years and take what comes out of that, that's totally fine but I venture to guess more here are out to make money more short-term..which therefore requires a strategy. I feel like a fool for not selling 100% of my holding both premarket mini pops up to .25 and buying back a the retrace. That was money well wasted! Oh well, so you move on. I don't see the big deal when a guy wants to act on his trading strategy. Ain't no big deal. Isn't it obvious that if one is on a BB like SB posting almost everyday that we like the company? And further, no one I know sold shares AFTER Brandon or because he did. And anyone who did is just a sheep. But it's one thing to like a company and completely another when it cpmes to making money. Hope is not a strategy as I often say. We all "hope" SIRI conusmmates this merger properly and prospers because of it. That hope may or may not be relative to being profitable as an investor. Best to keep the latter in its own arena IMHO...

But I digress. I came back in today to see a nice hold as this morning seemed to set up. I bought back 10K sh this morning at .1510 on the takedown which held up nicely. I will wait and see tommorow what happens in the CC for the rest of my hedge sale yesterday. But I was impressed with what I see from today's action. Yes SIRI missed the Street but many of their metrics were very impressive Y/Y. Though not an apples to apples comparison, it gives the appearance of growth. But it was clear they were given the benefit of the doubt on this one--which happens sometimes. Now comes the guidance..esp so close to EOQ. Mel will be able to tell analysts how Q1 is since it's nearly over. As as Mel delivering, I think he will. I was more impressed with him and Frears in Q3 CC. I think they are coming around and now with Maffei and Malone in the picture, I think he gives his best performance ever. It's no longer just him. He doesn't feel the need to answer to us shareholders, but he certainly now answers to them.

I have to say, I no way believe this SP goes back down to .13 from here. It would have happened today..which is why I hedged yesterday. The SP here is too low for a company not facing BK issues. I think we continue to climb back up (albeit slowly) just as we crept down, heading toward the right correction (which the market will decide how high that is). This because the debt deal has yet to be repriced into the stock. I think smart money was just waiting to to find out things aren't a disaster in the company otherwise..and tomorrow will complete that mission. Tomorrow's guidance will have to be a disaster to take the SP out back. In that absence I look for maybe another penny into the .16's/.17. Then I think we see .25 before .12. Todays action was too bullish (or not bearish..or at least stable). I see this thing heading higher because of underlying debt deal not yet done pricing in. I looked at a 6 month chart just a while ago. I suggest all do. It's clear to see how this behemoth is turning around and coming back up. Tomorrow we'll know more...good luck on your trades... :sunny:

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Originally Posted by asm610

MLsiri...thanks for lightening things up...I needed it today.

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ASM - Just trying to add some levity in the midst of all the gravity. Someone mentioned earlier a quote from RMN's illustrious vice president - Spiro Agnew - to the effect that he was alway confronted by "... nattering nabobs of negativity..."


What I lack in technical stock experience I'll try to contribute in other ways. The folks who post here have truly enhanced my understanding of this stock in particular, and the market in general - I'm truly appreciative of this site as a forum for all of the Sirius Buzz contributors.