I sold 33% (my .11's and .12's) because mommy wants money NOW!!!
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I sold 33% (my .11's and .12's) because mommy wants money NOW!!!
Mommy is smart, :D.Quote:
Originally Posted by mogami
Not to beat a dead horse, or discourage longs, in fact if your a bagholder(average over $1 still), no point selling now, I might shave some here though.
Sorry, but I treat this stock like any other in my portfolio. If I feel any of my stocks are going to go down, Im going to shave and rebuy. I wont take a 2 cent profit necessarily, but Im not going to hold this pig as it test .13 cents again thats for sure either.
i think its dumb to sell now when the it could pop even higher at any second, oh well gl to ya
I think it is bad to sell now at a loss. I didn't sell any shares at a loss today.
If it does pop I have twice as many shares left.
If it goes the other direction I will rebuy a larger number then I sold
That method of thinking made me hold a half position from .84 cents to .36 cents. The numbers dont lie. Demand is shrinking for the product in its current form. Mel has the tools to change this, just dont know if he knows how. Yet to be proven he can grow a technology company outside of the model handed to him. His growth rates are declining. If retail sales go positive again, I might rethink that, or if Mel announces new revenue streams. But from the info I have today, I am not impressed with their chances of hitting 20 million subs in 09.Quote:
Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos
O I agree Mogami, I didnt sell at a loss either. Shares I had bought at .07 cents, and .11 cents sold today. I am holding shares still purchased at .16 and .15 cents from a while ago left.
yeah siri isnt .84 cents its .15 big diff
Oh I think they will hit 20 million in 2009. Car sales are going to be better in 2009 then 2008. A little retail boost when they actually stock the product.
There will never be another qtr like 4th qtr 2008 for any company in USA. That was the absolute bottom.
I dont see car sales improving in 09. No way. Unless they start giving them away. Car makers cant control their costs. The model is dead. GM has never made "real profits". They remind me more of the airline industry. They need PERFECT conditions to even scratch a profit. When I say car model, im talking about US car market. They made cars bigger, stronger, and more expensive, when they should have been making cars, more efficient, and cheaper. Bringing back the Camaro? Why? So the 20 year old that makes $8 an hour at Burger World can afford one? No. The middle aged man who used to love Camaros? No, hes broke, and wondering where his retirement went, or looking for a new job. Hes looking to buy a car that gets 50 mpg, not a Camaro. That proves they have no clue in that industry either. Toyota had it right, but got caught up in competing in the SUV and truck markets, which are the only reason they are hurting as well. I think 09 car sales will be much worse than 08.Quote:
Originally Posted by mogami
Listen Ive had huge problems wtih Brandons coverage of this stock in the past, but hes right this time, as much as it pains me to believe. If Mel doesnt do something drastic in the next 2 quarters, they had better make the synergies work, and improve their balance sheet, because there going to be up against ever decreasing sub growth rates, and decreased revenue(owners of 2 subs will cancel one, or ones who had both will cancel one or the other). Remember, Q1 will reflect all the cancellations that occured due to the BK mess that Mel intentionally drove us to. Not to mention its a weak growth quarter anyway, add in terrible car sales....
Q1 should show a negative sub rate at that time. Maybe even. MAYBE A MINOR INCREASE. Maybe. Real companies dont use the economy as an excuse. It is what it is. Deal with it. Charging people for internet access, or threatening them to keep it for free if they poney up long term money was a bad move, in this economy. No commercials for the product have aired since the merger. Not one. They dont promote their talent. Im 100 percent sure Mel just sits back and banks on the car sales. Their retail solution was to release better more expensive radios? Hmmmm..... I dont think so. Best of Both? Probably cost them money. Radio that can get both signals? Good for the future. Liberty will make sure they stay afloat till they can enact long term goals. Not saying my overall outlook is bad, just for the next few months.
One merger aspect that failed. Billing and customer service costs MORE THAN DOUBLED. No synergies. Bad management from this angle at least.
If Ford, GM and Crysler sell 0 cars this year it will not matter to Sirius because people will buy Honda, Toyota etc and Sirius has deals with them.
Make does not matter only the numbers matter and if 2008 was a down year 2009 will be better.
Dispite all the crying 92 out of 100 americans are still working. Unemployment was at this level with Clinton and George the first.
Actually the govt is working on the wrong things. All they have to do is fix the banks. The rest is BS.
People will eventually figure this out on their own. I went to the mall this weekend and every store was packed, the parking lots were full and there were no closed up empty stores.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCalJoe
Now that is what Brandon should have said, that is possible. While I think it is not including all the promo subs, I think it is much more realistic. At the very least you did not forget about gross retail altogether.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mogami
Just one problem with that while the deals that are with Toyota and such are better for SIRIXM. The penitration rate is much lower.
2 March 2009
J.D. Power and Associates, an influential industry tracking service, now expects U.S. light vehicle sales to drop to a 27-year low of 10.4 million vehicles this year, compared with its earlier forecast of 11.4 million units.
"We believe we are nearing the bottom of this cycle," said Jeff Schuster, executive director of global forecasting at J.D. Power. "Our expectation is for February or March to be the low point, but a high degree of uncertainty and risk remains for the second half of 2009."
Febs sales were 5% higher then Jans (656,976 )(The prediction for Jan was 550,000)
688,909 were sold in Feb the numbers will go up each month from there with April (after tax returns) and beyond being much higher.
"For the full year of 2008, all of the Big Six automakers reported sales declines. In total, the industry sold 13.2 million vehicles for an 18 percent drop from 2007's 16.1 million."
when is any1 ever right when they predict things? well imma predict something, sirius will grow subs even if auto sales drop to 9 million. Just ask maffei
mogami, I agree there comes a point in time when the supply will not cover the demand. Look you or anyone that wants to do the research, they could find out what the death rate is for people that die on the road or how many accidents there are. They could look into the rate at which most cars last and then come to a rate at which cars have to be made just to replace the cars that are gone. Then take the US. population growth rate and find out what percentage or ratio buy/need cars. By doing this you could come to a reasonable number of cars that need to be produced to keep up with the bare demand.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mogami
58% of 10.4 million = 6,032,000 OEM Gross
1.6 Million (2008) X 75% = 1.2 million RETAIL Gross after 25% cut from 2008
7,232,000 TOTAL GROSS in 2009
19.5 million X 2.77% monthly churn = 6,481,000 TOTAL CHURN
7,232,000 Gross - 6,481,000 Churn = 751,000 NET ADDITIONS
Little closer to reality, IMHO. But could be higher on larger retail sales.
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Hey Joe,Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCalJoe
Your Gross OEM numbers are off. You should be using the penetration rate for your Gross adds and then factoring in the ALL IN churn, which seems to be around 2.77%
So here's how I would figure it based on your conservative assumptions.
19,003,856 Subscriber Base
535,000 Gross Monthly Sub Additions
19,538,856 Total Subscriptions prior to churn
2.77% Monthly All In Churn % (Assumed)
541,119 Monthly Churn Subs cancelled
18,997,737 Total Subscriptions after churn
(2,263) Monthly Net Subs Added (Lost)
It still works out to a slight loss - but I think these numbers are pretty much a worst case scenario. Any increase in OEM sales or retail and we continue to grow.
The iPhone app driven subs could outpace OEM driven subs this year.......
Demian - Agreed - and I think the iphone app is going to be the ace up Mel's sleeve...Quote:
Originally Posted by Demian
As usual - following the emergence and disappearance of NiceMac's app - there is nothing but silence on the issue - but I really just can't believe they'd be stupid enough to turn away from a way to put SXM on every friggin iphone/handheld device out there....
Has anyone looked at the numbers if they DO start heading that way with their own app? I'm curious as to what the numbers look like....
well as long as we are pulling numbers out of our butts I say Subs end of 2009 will be 250,000 higher then end of 2008 if not more
(going to get the Sirius NASCAR team back together)
CC talking points :D
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2008 Pro Forma Revenue of $2.44 Billion, Up 18% Over 2007
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Total Subscribers of Approximately 19 Million, Up 10% Over 2007
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Company Achieves Positive Pro Forma Adjusted Income From Operations in Fourth Quarter 2008
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Liberty Media Investment Completed