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  1. sxminvestor is offline
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    02-22-2009, 06:59 PM #21
    19.5 at most.

    19.9 (hope 20) by the end of 1st Q, but ARPU should be up because of the Best of and 1st Q Margins up further because of rate increase.

  2. john is offline
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    02-22-2009, 08:56 PM #22
    I'll say it again guys while I think the high numbers are not there. I also dont think the really low ones are ether. Ask yourselves would you increase the cost of getting the product if you already had trouble keeping the ones you had or could not get new ones. Just something to think about.

  3. stang3O2 is offline
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    02-22-2009, 10:55 PM #23
    I'm guessing 19,820,000

  4. clueless is offline
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    02-22-2009, 10:56 PM #24
    Who wants to bet on how high the churn will be? I think this will be the worst quarter yet.

  5. m4svt is offline
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    02-22-2009, 11:46 PM #25
    Quote Originally Posted by clueless View Post
    Who wants to bet on how high the churn will be? I think this will be the worst quarter yet.
    i dont wanna know what the churn is.

  6. Pinball Wizard is offline
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    02-25-2009, 02:50 PM #26
    19.3 million with terrible churn.

    btw has anyone heard about a date for 4th. quarter cc? Did I miss it? It was on Feb. 26 last year.

    thanks

  7. bananaz is offline
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    02-25-2009, 03:07 PM #27
    Yup. Too many jobs have been lost to not have a large number of cancellations. If I lost my income I'd have to cancel some of my subs. Food, Mortgage, Sirius, in that order.

  8. Newman is offline
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    02-25-2009, 03:21 PM #28
    I will throw out a churn number... 1.9. It was 1.7 last quarter and the quarter before that. 0.2 increase is significant.

    So my predictions are 19.35 subs, with a churn of 1.9%.

  9. john is offline
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    02-25-2009, 04:19 PM #29
    Newman that is possible but I dont think 1.9 is that bad they have had 1.8 before. Now of course the 1st quarter is for the most part going to be tuff on churn, it always has been because of the 4th quarter adds are higher then most other quarters and end of subscription comes in the 1st quarter.


    I will toss this out as another option that while churn stays the same ARPU gos down. Due to the deals they may be giving to keep people.

  10. Newman is offline
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    02-25-2009, 07:06 PM #30
    Actually john, I think ARPU goes UP, and SAC drops SIGNIFICANTLY because of OEMs selling less and thus getting less revshare.

    I could see SAC at $54 (It was $65 I think last quarter?) and ARPU up to $10.97 (I think it was $10.55 last quarter).

    You are correct in the fact that the Q1 numbers will look UGLY. You are right that Churn of 1.9 is not THAT bad, but for Q4, it would be a significant increase... and that number will go higher in Q1.