SIRI Intraday Thread: Thursday, March 26th

[john]

ETRADE and Yahoo have the close at .39 cents. Typical. Literally right at the breakout point. And as the LAST trade. I will be on the edge of my seat tomorrow. With bells on!!!
Good call Demian, I noticed your accuracy. I was guessing around .37-.38, but they seemed to have leapt over .38 at the close!!! No complaints here.
John, your just mad because your comment on you cant predict the price is not accurate. I called(and Brandon) have been calling a breakout in the next 1-3 days(I first stated yesterday for the first time , or the day before). I thought the pattern was simply an upchannel, but its also trapped in a triangle. Resolution dicated a strong move in 1-3 days(as of yesterday).
So if it breaks past .40 in that time frame(or crashes back to test support levels), then yes you can predict the stock price. Cant predict the direction, just the action.(But percentages are definately weighing heavily towards up. I wont guarantee this however, as Im not suicidal. ) But I will be buying shares on a break from .39. Target .42 minimum. But probably wont stop until .45.(Without significant retracing).

Excuse me but I dont recall anyone saying there was going to be a lighting drop from .36 to .22 what happen to your charts on that one. My point here is just this dont try to say you called something when both of you say it may go down OR it may go up. THEN say I WAS CORRECT when it ether of the two happens. Of couse you were correct because you said it was going to do both. But you were also wrong just as much as you were correct.


Here I will do basically what you guys do. I predict it will go down tomarrow but if we get to .36 it should go back up again or if the MM are in tune and want it to go down then it will continue to go down. HOW MUCH YOU WANT TO BET I WILL BE RIGHT TOMARROW. You want to take that bet.

[mogami]

Jeez you guys act like poor General Paxton and his Stonewall Brigade are equipped with M-1 Abrams. From the time we ordered him forward to the time the enemy routed was 41 minutes. Even though the Brigade is known as "Jacksons Foot Cavalry" thats still pretty fast.


(see thats a blatant attempt on my part to steal the glory)

[amy]

You know what, F all of you who want to bash anyone on this board for making an honest attempt at helping others. None of us are correct 100% of the time. Stop trying to be the alpha male and get on the damn team! If we stopped bickering at each other and worked together more we'd all be killing it.

Who's with me?

I agree. It's dysfunctional and gets us nowhere except uncomfortable with speaking our minds. We are adults... I think? Thank you Brandon for all the work you have put into this site.

Amy

[jelax]

Hi, I really considered it this morning and went with HAYZ instead (kicks self in butt)
But you do not want to jump on it now. It will sell off tomorrow.
Don't jump on stocks after big gains

I think it will spike higher tomorrow as well then sell off midday(ctic that is). AH in siri nver seem too great.

[Demian]

They are talking about Dish network again on Bloomberg......and how bad they are doing - losing share to DirecTV......

It's over now though.....

[Beach Gambler]

Good Night All, Enjoy your freinds and or family and relax.

[Demian]

http://www.howestreet.com/articles/i...rticle_id=9024

Are Investors Finally Getting Sirius?
By Jonas Elmerraji
March 26, 2009

Sirius XM Radio is having an interesting year.

The satellite radio operator’s share price is down 88% in the last 12 months, but up 204% in 2009. Why the volatile ebb and flow?

Part of the reason is the company’s high profile on Wall Street — it’s arguably the most popular penny stock out there. And why shouldn’t it be? After all, the company is the exclusive provider of satellite radio and in-car TV broadcasts for almost 20 million paying subscribers in the United States and Canada.

But to assume that all the interest in Sirius XM (NASDAQ: SIRI) is because of the company’s great growth prospects would be dead wrong. Scores of investors want to see this company crash and burn.

As of last month, almost 5% of shares available to the public were short Sirius XM, and while that might not sound like a lot of shares, it’s 25% more short interest than even beleaguered Citigroup is facing.

Part of the reason for that dichotomy of investor sentiment is the battle between the company’s cash-machine business model and its over-leveraged balance sheet. At present, the $1.4 billion company is sitting on around $5 billion in long-term debt — a number that’s grown 260% in the last year largely as a result of the merger between rivals Sirius and XM.

Can Sirius Scrape up the Cash?

But Sirius XM isn’t insolvent — yet. Last year, the company generated $1.7 billion in revenues, and much higher numbers are all but guaranteed for this year as a result of the merger. Add to that the last-minute $530 million cash infusion Liberty Media Corp. agreed to lend to Sirius XM last month, and this company is certainly adept at eking by the guillotine.

That skill is part of the reason SIRI shares have appreciated so dramatically in 2009.

In the case of Sirius XM fundamentals (like the company’s income statement and balance sheet) are squarely pitted against its business (like the fact that it provides a great service). Now, more and more, investors are counting on the business side to win out.

After all, the Sirius and XM merger is estimated to generate $400 million in excess costs this year alone.

Believe the Hype

Indeed, media sentiment has even changed for Sirius XM. Where financial writers used to lampoon the flailing company, they’re now standing behind its prospects for turning a profit in 2009.

“Things are going so well for Sirius XM Radio these days that it doesn't even have to say a word for positive things to happen. All it has to do is sit tight as those around it generate headlines favorable to the satellite-radio operator,” said the Motley Fool’s Rick Munarriz in an article about trends that should be a boon to the Sirius XM bottom line.

Analysts too are flip flopping over to the side of Sirius XM, estimating a narrow loss for the coming quarter and a target price more than 16% above what the stock trades at today.

As investors, we’ll just have to wait until earnings season to see whose side ends up the victor in this battle royale. Whatever the future holds for SIRI’s stock price, the one constant is that the ride is sure to be a wild one. Until then, I’ll just stick to listening to Sirius in my car, not watching it in my portfolio.

[mogami]

I think it will spike higher tomorrow as well then sell off midday(ctic that is). AH in siri nver seem too great.

Hi, I think the extended hours will make it not worth your while. It will cost too much for too little upside. (but extra risk)
Look for a stock that struggled today but held most of it's ground.


UP Date on HSIW it closed up .038 from where it was at when I pointed it out.
(I was out of money)
Does this count as a good prediction?

[Demian]

http://ca.sys-con.com/node/893886

The XM for Business service is now managed by PlayNetwork through a new strategic relationship with XM Satellite Radio. More information is available at www.playnetwork.com or www.xm4biz.com.

[Brandon Matthews]

Excuse me but I dont recall anyone saying there was going to be a lighting drop from .36 to .22 what happen to your charts on that one. My point here is just this dont try to say you called something when both of you say it may go down OR it may go up. THEN say I WAS CORRECT when it ether of the two happens. Of couse you were correct because you said it was going to do both. But you were also wrong just as much as you were correct.


Here I will do basically what you guys do. I predict it will go down tomarrow but if we get to .36 it should go back up again or if the MM are in tune and want it to go down then it will continue to go down. HOW MUCH YOU WANT TO BET I WILL BE RIGHT TOMARROW. You want to take that bet.

Here are my posts today. Please show me where I said it was going to go up AND down you #%^*^&(%.

10:07 am

I still cant decide. Huge volume this morning. Chart looks like a person having a heart attack. The battle of supply and demand is getting fierce. I'm thinking this is a shakeout pattern develping. It could catapult us up or down, depending on the victor. WOW!

12:30 pm

They have a boatload of .36 bids to fill before we go up.

12:44 pm

I can't see them now, but there were some very big orders at .39 and .41. Unfortunately, the mm's are letting anyone who wants to buy in below .40 to do so. They have us rangebound today at what started at 36-38 to 36-37. This tightening is just waiting to erupt.

Economics teaches us that anything (including stocks) is only worth what someone is willing to pay. In this case, .36 seems to be the going rate. Not sure it will move anywhere today. My guess at this point would be a .3750 close...the midpoint between the .36 and .39

1:29 pm

I'm getting ready to call another breakout....damn this thing is in a tight range. Draw a line for the uptrend on the daily chart. Then draw another line on the downslope. They meet at .3671. It's running out of room. Up or down, its going to have to decide soon. My moneys on up.

ZERO Barrier will be hit at 2 pm. (for all armageddon fans. thats where and when the apex meets.)

1:59 pm

With 2 minutes to go until zero barrier, I'm looking for a sharp decline to 36 that will last just seconds followed by an immediate spike up to at least .38. Could be interesting...

2:15 pm

If anyone was following my chart, we never reached the apex. Instead, we broke the downtrend line but just outright stalled...didn't go up, didn't go down...nothing....its flatlining at 37.

Following the uptrend line and 37 resistance, our new zero barrier becomes 2:45 -3:00 pm...it will either break below the uptrend line or break through .37 by that time.

2:36 pm

I still expect a big drop to .36 first as the MM's pick up those 600k shares sitting there all day, and then a quick runup to .38-.39 to sell them.

3:01 pm

they just keep throwing up those shares at .37...every time you think they are done, in come another f&^(*ing 68,000 @ .37

3:16 pm

there went the spike down that I knew would come, and lo and behold, its heading back up, just as I said...now we need to say bye bye to .37 and welcome in 38-39

3:56 pm

Originally Posted by Hughes
I recall someone saying it will close at .375 many many pages ago and it looks like it might end up there...

that was me but I'm hoping for higher now as shorts cover

4:00 hits .39. High of day .3999