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  1. Mario is offline
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    Joined: Aug 2007 Posts: 39
    10-24-2008, 12:03 AM #1

    Let me tell you about Amazon

    It was the year 2000, I had some money and I was new to the stock game. It was September. I had some money saved up and I wanted to get rich quick. So I took the money... about 15k and put it all into stock, trading at about $43.

    By November, it was trading at $27. I had lost a lot of my money... I didn't have much back then. But I scrounged around and managed to buy more shares, but not a lot. I averaged down to $35.

    By Feb of 2001, it was trading at $13. Damn, I remember how I was freaking out. If you don't remember, back in 2001, the world was coming to an end. All the stocks were crashing, the news was devoted to showing negative stock quotes, we were in recession, job loses, retail sales were stinky, the Nasdaq was at like 1600, and terrorists wanted to kill everybody. Not knowing any better, I bought some more shares at $13... I managed to average down to $25, but man, I was in pain.

    Months go by...Then in September 2001, Amazon is trading at $6.... I remember the day. I could not believe how much money I was losing, and how I could have been so stupid to invest in this stock. I was watching the Yahoo message board and reading everybody crying and crapping. Jim Cramer (he didn't have a show then) was on CNBC crapping all over Amazon because they had over $2 billion in debt, no profits, and they were definitely heading for BK. Every singly analyst on the planet was using Amazon as toilet. And I certainly felt like shit.

    I decided that I would not sell yet. I would just hold out and try to recoup a bit.

    I waited 5 month, and Amazon was at $15 (March 2002). Oh man, I was happy! I sold half my position. Jim was still bashing the stock, and it was still swimming in debt. The brains on the Yahoo message board were calling Bezos the devil, and analysts were all predicting BK. To hell with this I said. In June, I sold the rest of my position at $19.

    I was out baby! Sure, I lost about 12k, but at least I didn't lose it all right? And plus, the pig was going Bankrupt and it would be worth zero by 2003, so man was I happy.


    Shat! Jeff Bezos was right in the end. Amazon started to show some profits. After about a year of profits the analysts started to perk up. After about 2 years Cramer was all over it, and in 2007 the stupid Amazon.cunt was at $90.

    **** me, why did I listen to all those cocks. In the end, I had only myself to blame.


    Amazon seems to be a lot like Sirius. Both had no profits, and had never shown a profit. Both were swimming in debt. Both stocks were scraping bottom just as the economy was in recession. Both were predicting future profits (as Amazon used to love saying "pro forma earnings"), both were hated by every cock hound on wall street.

    Maybe in the end, they won't turn out to be the same at all... nobody knows for sure, but this time, just for fun, instead of selling I will hold on and instead of panicking, I will remain calm.

    And if everything turns out wrong in the end, at least I will have another interesting anecdote to share next time we are in a similar situation.

  2. Demian is offline
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    Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 2,320
    10-24-2008, 12:47 AM #2
    Thanks for the post! I remember another story like that about Amazon in the book "Dumb Money". I'm afraid that there will be many people selling SIRI too soon on the way back up. The market can be very irrational on the way down and up...

    Thanks for the story...

  3. Krypto1 is offline
    Junior Member
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    Joined: Sep 2008 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 21
    10-24-2008, 01:10 AM #3

    Great Post Mario

    I got a kick out of your post Mario... Good story that is most likely indicative of exactly what you will see with this deal. Seems that at one time or another with growth companies, investers get to a point where they are literally staring into the abyss. Wink at it and perservere. I hope you come out on top here, my bet is that you time

  4. spanyo is offline
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    Joined: Jul 2008 Posts: 135
    10-24-2008, 06:29 AM #4
    History repeats itself...


  5. SiriusHope is offline
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    Joined: Oct 2008 Location: Las Vegas Posts: 515
    10-24-2008, 10:16 AM #5
    when i bought this stock i figured it was a 2-3yr i am in for the duration or go bust.

  6. SiriusHope is offline
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    Joined: Oct 2008 Location: Las Vegas Posts: 515
    10-24-2008, 10:18 AM #6
    just keep averaging down started at 2.50 now to 1.38 and will buy more to avg down to about .95 and hold, as long as it don't BK.