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  1. homer985 is offline
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    Joined: Mar 2008 Posts: 485
    10-21-2008, 09:43 PM #21
    Even with the pps where it is -- the EV is still $4.5 billion.

    Consider this, CCU had a difficult time closing their LBO valued at $20 billion when the debt market was much better off... this is a company that has BILLIONS of dollars in annual FCF having a difficult time closing their pre-arranged deal - and the Mays family and other board members are BANKERS!

    Are there really posters here that believe that Karmazin is going to come up with nearly $5 billion to do an LBO on a company that has never earned a profit; has a questionable future due to a weakening (some believe saturated) aftermarket; a weakening economy; and a severely weakening automotive market?


    Good luck proving that one...


  2. Demian is offline
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    Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 2,320
    10-21-2008, 09:45 PM #22
    I tried calling Hartleib and left a message, but he hasn't called me back yet.

    He might not want to talk to me.......I've got some tough questions for him.

    I'm open to hearing what he has to say though and will listen to what he has to say, but I'm going to want some questions answered......

  3. spanyo is offline
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    Joined: Jul 2008 Posts: 135
    10-21-2008, 09:51 PM #23
    I think that we should not do anything to encourage MH.

    If there is a conspiracy it is probably one to let the share price go down. (Since they can't really do anything to raise it right now.) People "in the know" will not be afraid to buy at levels that suggest bankruptcy is imminent. Then the "good news" comes out and the price skyrockets.

    Call me crazy, but the lower the price goes, the only thing I worry about is not getting more shares before it jumps. But human greed tells me that it will probably get a little cheaper from here.

  4. Demian is offline
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    Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 2,320
    10-21-2008, 10:09 PM #24
    Siri has had some wild price swings before ahead of good news - to the downside and the upside.

    Zoom the chart in for went from like .40 to almost $10.00.

  5. spanyo is offline
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    Joined: Jul 2008 Posts: 135
    10-21-2008, 10:29 PM #25
    I've zoomed that time frame many times. Dreaming that it would go down to that price again. Here we are and I can help but be greedy, hoping it will go down further. I say the lower it goes, the higher it will eventually go. I can already see the articles that will be written...

    "SIRI almost hits earth, then blasts into the cosmos."

    This is how the rich get really rich. I just hope to hitch a ride.

  6. frigginsirius is offline
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    Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 29
    10-22-2008, 12:02 AM #26
    I don't know WHAT the **** is going on anymore. I pine for the good ol' days when ALL we had to angst over was wether the merger would go thru.

    That stretched on into the LONGEST FRIGGIN MERGER IN HISTORY.

    But ever since the merger was approved in the MOST ANTI CLIMACTIC LONGEST MERGER IN HISTORY nothing has made sense.


    Mel NEEDS to SPEAK, and he needs to speak US THE SHAREHOLDERS.

    We want ANSWERS. We want reassurance. We WANT THE ****ING TRUTH.


    No more "I AM VERY CONFIDENT WE WILL REFINANCE THE DEBT and not thru further dilution" from Mel out of one side of his mouth....AND THEN THE COMPANY DILUTES THE ****ING STOCK...AND ONLY REFINANCES A SMALL CHUNK OF IT.

    MEL was silent for 17 FRIGGIN MONTHS thrus the merger bullshit. THAT WE APPROVED because we BELIEVED in MEL.

    We BELIEVED him when he said the merger was going to be GOOD for us. We BELIEVED him when he promised to be more transparent and to communicate with us. HE LIED!

    ENOUGH of this BULLSHIT.

    I would take the angst of the MERGER DELAY again over THIS CRAP ANY DAY!!!! At least then the "enemy" was the easy to hate FCC.

    But when your OWN CEO becomes the HATED tears you apart. You feel betrayed and it's an even MORE helpless feeling.

    This silence from Mel is intolerable.

    It's like Sirius is a totally forgotten stock. Not mentioned on tv anymore. Cramer hasn't mentioned it since the summer.

    But worst of all, Mel isn't talking to us.

  7. JasonL is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2007 Posts: 107
    10-22-2008, 12:34 AM #27

    i will say it again

    I said it before, i will say again, Mel is a crook in my eyes, he's an example of whats wrong in corp america today, greedy fukin CEOs, dont trust him, and he will prove it to all of us soon.
    I respect Hartleib for standing up to these executive thieves, im too broke and small to put up a fight, I can only use my text and internet, i have very little savings left to fund any fight.
    Good luck my friend, and I believe your theory is strong, wish i could do more to fight the filth as well.
    SIRI stock is a loss with crooks like Black and Karma pulling the strings.

  8. Newman is offline
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    Joined: Jun 2007 Location: Dallas Texas Posts: 1,162
    10-22-2008, 04:30 AM #28
    I will start off by saying that I do not believe Micheal Hartlieb, but since Sirius has not given us anything else to go by, it is tough to say one way or the other.

    I do see the motive though:

    Mel and company drive the price of the stock down and disenfranchize the shareholders. (Done)
    Mel and Apollo offer to pony up cash in exchange for the remaining shares. As homer stated, EV right now is around 4.5 billion, then add the premium for shareholders, and every dollar you give adds $3 billion. Hartlieb thinks that Mel and Co. will offer the buyout between $1.50 and $2. This means that the total buyout price will be 7-10 billion more or less. At that point, It will be Apollo and Mel to turn around the company, drive profit, and then bring the company public again via another IPO and make a killing that way. Mel has taken a company private and then brought them back public before with Infinity as Hartlieb has stated. But what Hartlieb is mistaken about was that he did not kill shareholders in order to take it private, shareholders made a LOT of money with the infinity deal before it was taken private.

    The fact that Mel and Appolo have a ton of shares means nothing, except that they do not have to buy those shares back from themselves.

    I do see the method to the madness, but I am too skeptical to beleive it at this point.

  9. Demian is offline
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    Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 2,320
    10-22-2008, 04:31 AM #29
    Quote Originally Posted by frigginsirius View Post
    It's like Sirius is a totally forgotten stock. Not mentioned on tv anymore. Cramer hasn't mentioned it since the summer.

    I don't think that Cramer can mention stocks under $1. I'm pretty sure of that and I remember reading that somewhere.

  10. Demian is offline
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    10-22-2008, 06:04 AM #30
    I had a very long talk with Michael Hartlieb tonight. He is convinced that Mel and Leon Black want to take the company private and don't care about the share price decline or the shareholders. He thinks that this has been the plan all along. He maintains that they wanted to get the merger done, to get all of the spectrum, and then have the share price decline and then take the combined company private.

    With the share price now so low, It makes you naturally more open to this explanation, but is it true? Could it really be true that Mel could care less about all of the shareholders who have supported and believed in him all this time? Could he really be that cold and calculated? Is it possible that he is really happy that the share price is tanking? This is hard to fathom.......but is it true?

    I don't know about all of this yet.....

    Michael's arguments were compelling and convincing, but could they be circumstantial?

    He argues that going into the merger, Mel was not prepared with the financing on purpose - because he actually wanted the stock to tank! I asked him why Mel bought more shares and why Leon Black still held over 90 million shares? He said that it was nothing compared to what they could make off of this by taking the company private and then public again....

    Michael said that Mel's comment about taking the company private the other day should be a huge red flag showing his true intentions...

    Michael was very bullish on the worth of the combined company and it's future prospects, but he thinks that Mel wants to wipe out the shareholders first by taking the company private and then, after all the money starts rolling in, take it public again. The long term investors, that have supported SIRI all of these years, would not benefit from the success of the company Michael argues....

    Is this the reason the stock has tanked?

    Or is it the low car sales, bad retail environment, bad economy, crashing market, credit crises, bond bullies and shorts?

    Mel has said some really stupid things lately - is he doing this on purpose to tank the stock? Is he hoping SIRI will go BK?

    Michael Hartleib seems to think so........

    Is it conspiracy or fact?

    I wondered about the possibility of a hostile takeover with a low share price.....which could put a wrench in a plan like that.

    We talked about other things - interoperable radios, market manipulation, stock analysts, GS, Paulson, and Cramer.

    He did say he was offered settlement money from Sirius before, but that it wasn't enough to make up for his losses. I asked him if the offer was high enough, would he take the money and settle? He said that he might.....

    He is trying to gather people to protest at the shareholders meeting in December.

    I told him I was afraid that he might become the shorts new best friend.....

    He told me that it really couldn't get much worse and that he was trying to stop them from crushing all of the shareholders by taking the company private....

    He has done a lot of research into the interoperable radio issue, and I was impressed with his knowledge about that.

    We both could relate to how crummy it's been to see the stock tank - with the combined company having so much promise...

    Grasping the complexities of how this "conspiracy" theory would work was starting to make my head hurt. How could Mel be pretending to care about the shareholders all this time and really wanting to screw us over? Could this really be true? He works for us, right?

    Looking forward to Thursday night's radio show...

    I hope people will ask him good questions....

    Is this the Twilight Zone?

    I don't know what to think anymore.......
    Last edited by Demian; 10-22-2008 at 06:09 AM.