With all our dozens of aliases, I suppose I may as well be Steiny and answer your question. The bottom line is Sirius has and continues to trade the way it does for no better reason than it being trapped in the stigma of being a stock that trades consistently irrationally. I hope we all have answered your question.Originally Posted by MUSCLE13
That is not an answer that addresses any fundamentals at all, Brandon. Sirius has 3 avenues for growth - radio subs, video subs, and connected vehicle services. It is growing Free Cash Flow 20%+ per year. Why is it trading at less than 12 times 2016 projected FCF per share right now? What is the reason?
On another note, I have continued to gamble with shipping stocks moving in and out of them risking a relatively small amount for what continues to be unbelievable gains. If anyone is interested, my picks have been DSX, DRYS, SB, NM & NMM. Not for faint of heart as greed and poor timing can wipe out your investment very quickly. But what I have been doing is buying into a market weakness and bottoms that close in on previous bottoms and then just wait for the pop. Rarely took more than a few days so far. Only sold at a loss 3 times and ended up buying back lower. So far I have nearly tripled my initial investment and am playing with house money at this point. Don't know how long this will last, but please do your own due diligence before risking a dime!
Muscle,
The disconnect are the charges in the first and second quarter and the last two quarters / The settlement was taken pretax dollars aprox 113m 2nd quarter and 11m 3rd and 4thQ. There was a one time tax adjustment 1st Q which pushed the tax rate up to 57% which is bullshit. These charges kept the EPS in line this year just as the charges for settling all of the bad debt have done the past few years. Look at the other expense line items in previous years you will see them easily. You are right about its a cash flow story I just wonder how many chapters are left in the book. I am going to question my outside accountants when they come in to close year end about how these guys legally can keep doing this but I'm sure its just loopholes in the system.
Interesting answer, but I am still not buying it from a valuation standpoint when FCF per share came in at + 23%. Sirius has never been valued on EPS by the street. I think there is a disconnect on valuation. Maybe the street believes car sales will fall off a cliff? But SAAR came in at 17.55 million in January with all the fear in the market. The disconnect is palatable from an investment standpoint.
Last edited by MUSCLE13; 02-04-2016 at 11:59 AM.
I think that $3.52 is STILL the toilet. and this stock is just a big turd.
You know what I am going to do? Listen to Peter Lynch and John Bogle's market theories. In the short term markets run on emotion. In the long term markets run on fundamentals. I have total confidence that this company can grow FCF per share at a 20%+ clip as it has already proven. I am going to do exactly what I did in 2008 and 2009 after I bought. Shut my eyes and wait.................
Your observations an arguments are completely valid. But keep in mind that you are dealing with Sirius which historically mostly moves significantly on negative impacting fundamentals and minimally on positive ones. And then there is the WTF factor which moves the so for no apparent reason. This all raises the question of just what exactly is controlling the sp? Of course this is something we can only speculate on since very little seams to make sense.
The entire market is a big turd. Sirius is merely a skid mark.
I don't disagree with you all I'm saying is the stories would be EPS 2014 .08 / EPS 2015 .12 instead of .09 increase of 50% instead of less than 10% and PE 2014 52 vs PE 2015 29 ttm. This is the strongest and only reason I can find for the disconnect.
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