Sirius XM February 2016 Thread

[dm_4]

Looks like another day of slaughter... DM you got back in too early! Are you averaging down or hanging it up for now?
Note: Just filled 5k shares at 3.49! Scary as I did not think it would fill!

BDP....Siri at 3.545 currently as i type this. My initial buy was 3.58 so no i will not average down yet...if it hits 3.38 area then at that point i shall. Don't panic....good luck.

Siri was buying back shares at much higher prices and frear called those prices "bargain". Wonder what he is calling them at this level? Heavy volume yesterday and today...I would say they are buying back more here.

Edit: Siri now 3.56 nice bounce off 3.48

[waldo29]

Thank you for the detailed and thoughtful response Waldo. I appreciate your insights and taking the time to explain things to me. I am a pretty factual person yet this turn compounded with a few other bad decisions with Apple and Disney have made it more personalized and emotional than it is supposed to be the last few months. It's all on me and no excuses but it is a shame this feels so much more intensified than it should be given that Sirius is such a terrific company with a fairly healthy track record the past few years. Thanks again for your insights.

JR999

JR,

We've all been there. Not sure of your cost basis on these or your time horizon, that is a big factor. This is an adjustment period (equity, debt and FX) as the world weens its self off central bank intervention, and we've only just begun. That intervention pushed investors out the risk and curve and created a distorted multiple in a lot of companies. Read that as continued elevated volatility, both directions, with a bias to the downside as the carry trades unwind.

Other central banks around the world still have monetary policies that are "loosening". The FED move to tighten is a mistake from a business/credit cycle perspective but additionally , if the Fed is moving in one direction and the rest of the world is moving in the other at the same time, its effectively twice the move in the headlines we are reading. A pause for the FED in March is important for the market to settle down a bit.

Apple Disney are HIGH quality companies, long term they will recover. Assuming you have a longer term time horizon, average down and, if you have the capabilities, sell some covered calls on Apple and Disney. That will lesson the pain a bit while you wait it out.

Assuming the FED does not reverse course or even just slows to two hikes this year, and we stay away from a recession, this period of adjustment could last through the year. Maybe even in to the first half of 2017, it all depends on how well the central banks act, work together (or not).

[JR999]

Thanks again Waldo. Appreciate the insights.

JR,

We've all been there. Not sure of your cost basis on these or your time horizon, that is a big factor. This is an adjustment period (equity, debt and FX) as the world weens its self off central bank intervention, and we've only just begun. That intervention pushed investors out the risk and curve and created a distorted multiple in a lot of companies. Read that as continued elevated volatility, both directions, with a bias to the downside as the carry trades unwind.

Other central banks around the world still have monetary policies that are "loosening". The FED move to tighten is a mistake from a business/credit cycle perspective but additionally , if the Fed is moving in one direction and the rest of the world is moving in the other at the same time, its effectively twice the move in the headlines we are reading. A pause for the FED in March is important for the market to settle down a bit.

Apple Disney are HIGH quality companies, long term they will recover. Assuming you have a longer term time horizon, average down and, if you have the capabilities, sell some covered calls on Apple and Disney. That will lesson the pain a bit while you wait it out.

Assuming the FED does not reverse course or even just slows to two hikes this year, and we stay away from a recession, this period of adjustment could last through the year. Maybe even in to the first half of 2017, it all depends on how well the central banks act, work together (or not).

[dm_4]

Where is the "Beav" at?

[bdp.]

Where is the "Beav" at?

Gone?

[bdp.]

I hope 3.48 was the bottom. I just grabbed 5k more shares at 3.49..

[MUSCLE13]

yeah...its like Frear said....siri down along with the rest of the market for the month of jan. Just nibbling here. Jeesh where is Muscle....guess he is going to have to keep averaging down a bit.

Yes I bought more today Brandon. I wish this would end already. It's an opportunity on one end but a disconnect on a valuation standpoint. $3.93 is 20 times 2014 FCF per share. $4.84 is 20 times 2015 FCF per share. $6 is 20 times projected 2016 FCF per share.

Today's price is ludicrous. Sirius is growing FCF per share 20%+ per year.

At least Comcast is doing well....................Good luck with all your aliases here. I see they are growing by the day. Over 20 now?

[bdp.]

I am considering creating a second alias so I may join in on the fun and games!

[MUSCLE13]

I am considering creating a second alias so I may join in on the fun and games!

Yeah, sure whatever you say Brandon........

[dm_4]

Gone?

not in a million years....he loves us too much!