Just a little update. WTF IS HAPPENING WITH THIS MARKET!!!!
SIRIUS XM SATELLITE RADIO FORUM
Just a little update. WTF IS HAPPENING WITH THIS MARKET!!!!
Capitulation. Except I don't think we are there yet.Originally Posted by bdp.
It is getting ugly, need to take back 3.35 or else we can assume that most of the collateral has been released and no longer any reason for the to protect it and the other call levels. If that is the case, we can assume the 3.05 support is irrelevant and we go with 3.09 and 2.98 as the areas I will be looking to cover. Does not mean there is not more downside from there. Just that easy money to be made from the short off the top has been made. Will go in to purely a trading more from there.
And if we close over 3.35?
Just a pause, it mostly means you would be able to get some trades in using 3.35 as a 'predictable' support level and the broader market may not even allow that. But, if it holds, 3.35 probably won't last all that long. That wave down through 3.35 is an indicator of how strong the support is @ 3.35 (or willingness to defend with the BB). Not as strong as a longs would have hoped. Losing both 3.65 and 3.35 within 5 trading means there is less of a need to defend those levels from a LM collateral perspective.
LM's stake in Charter (and other ventures) is important to SIRI. There has always been a lot more to SIRI than fundamentals. Some call it manipulation, but it's more aptly defined as it's being used to build an empire for JM. fundamentals will matter more when JM is done using LM's SIRI stake to build their empire. We are not there yet, but... the tracking stock split is a step to getting us there.
Update, doubled down at 3.30...nice bounce of low of day. Siri holding decent on terrible day....down less than 2% for the day at this moment while many other stocks down up to %10. Love these bargain basement prices!
3.36 close boyz n girls
Last edited by dm_4; 02-08-2016 at 05:01 PM.
So are you saying you feel that 3.35 support is essentially irrelevant at this point?
Hopefully that was an excellent buy!Update, doubled down at 3.30...nice bounce of low of day. Siri holding decent on terrible day....down less than 2% for the day at this moment while many other stocks down up to %10. Love these bargain basement prices!
3.36 close boyz n girls
Depends, to prevent us from going lower over the next 3.5 months, yes it is no longer relevant. 3.35 is Just a point to trade off of. From a short term trading perspective, there is probably a gap play to go long into and then short against.
I think it makes sense to pay close attention to 1812 on the S&P. This is just MHO, based on the fact that the S&P touched 1812 intraday back on January 20th before bouncing off that level and finishing higher for the day. As bad as things have been last week and this week so far, we haven't retraced to that level (yet). 1812 could prove to be an important psychological floor and if that breaks, it might signal a bigger decline for the mkt. The VIX is up over 11% yesterday but is still well below the 40 level it reached last Aug/Sept. For this market to signal a turn we need capitulation and that usually comes with much higher levels on the VIX (that's why it's called the "fear gauge"). However, if these levels hold right here they could provide a near-term base off of which the market can build support.
The above is just a guess but worth watching/considering in light of the market weakness. For more fundamental analysis, I would just point out that it's still not cheap, with the S&P trading at approx. 15x earnings vs. the 10 year avg. of around 14x.
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