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  1. user34615145 is offline
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    08-06-2015, 07:09 AM #121
    Quote Originally Posted by MadEra View Post
    I've never understood the logic of a premium for LMCA to purchase Sirius. You don't lose your shares you just get different ones of a combined company. Premiums are for those looking to sell out of a company they no longer think will grow or return $ to their shareholders.
    I think, frankly, that it may be more of an emotional expectation than anything. People look around and they see companies getting bought by other companies and getting a nice little "kiss" in terms of a premium and so when it comes to SIRI and all the pain and suffering shareholders - especially long term shareholders like Muscle and others here have endured....well, they want theirs. The logic being, "look if I wanted to buy Liberty shares, I'd buy them, but I'd rather own SIRI and, given time, I think my SIRI shares are going to be worth some larger multiple of the current price. Now with this (imagined) merger, I'll never get the opportunity to let my investment play out so I want a premium for that lost opportunity"

    After going over the Liberty earning transcript (found here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3403...p=qanda&l=last) I think you may be onto something with your call that there's possibly going to be another offering in the near future. Clearly it's on Maffei's radar. When he was asked by an analyst about the possibility of SIRI buying Liberty shares given that they are trading below NAV he responded with:

    "I can tell you, I don't think I'm giving away any confidence as that idea has been discussed both by Liberty and by Sirius. There is some logic and appeal to that. I think one of the questions for them would be what's their eventual liquidity path on those shares and how do they eventually collapse that. If you imagine an impending merger, which we tried once between Liberty and SiriusXM, then that solves the problem, but that's not guaranteed."
    (bold and italics added by me)
    Last edited by user34615145; 08-06-2015 at 07:36 AM.

  2. bdp. is offline
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    08-06-2015, 07:46 AM #122
    What gets me is that this is the first Sirius quarter where there was no negative news, no negative spin... Nothing. I fully expected the usual familiar week long flip flop routine with the sp and then break in the direction of the quarter results ( in this case very positive) which is the basis of my $4+ by yesterday prediction. But then now you have Liberty to drag it down by the umbilical cord that's wrapped tightly around Sirius' neck. So if Sirius has a chance of any significant advance forward, Liberty must also perform identically or better. I suppose we should be watching and analyzing Liberty very closely as well since that is the company we have inadvertently invested in.

  3. user34615145 is offline
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    08-06-2015, 08:43 AM #123
    Here's another great exchange and little nugget of information from the Q&A portion of the Liberty call:



    Bart Crockett - FBR Capital Markets & Co.
    Okay. Thanks for taking the question. I was wanting to ask about the ownership, the creeping ownership at SIRI, as you're at 59%, I think you were at 57% last quarter. In a year or so, you'll be up pushing 70% at this pace. Now at what point do you think, Greg, it becomes incumbent upon SIRI to maybe stop buying back shares or stop buying back shares as your ownership accretes? And can you walk through some scenarios that tell us how we would get out of that situation once we get there?

    Gregory Maffei - President & CEO
    Well, I think that's one that you're going to have to address more to the independent directors and counsel at SIRI. It's not our challenge, per se. I would state that sheer math would say, from Liberty's perspective, if they wanted to pay a big one-time special cash dividend because they got too high on the buyback and remembering our discount at LMC, we wouldn't probably complain because even after the tax at the moment that we would pay on that kind of a distribution, we'd be effective at buying our own stock back and still be able to capture more value. So I think are other things they can do. Look, they're a cash flow generating machine. There are other ways they can deliver value to their shareholders at some point, if our ownership gets too high, because of liquidity concerns or other concerns.

    Am I correct in reading this as Maffei saying essentially "look if they want to keep buying their shares back an that increases our stake, then who am I to stop them?"

    I think certainly from Maffei's perspective, if they can increase their stake from approx. 60% to 70% in the next year (assuming Crockett's math is correct) by just sitting back and letting SIRI buy back it's own stock on the open market, then it may pay him to wait a little while longer before he were to float another tender offer....as long as the share price were to remain muted.
    Last edited by user34615145; 08-06-2015 at 08:49 AM.

  4. midas360 is offline
    08-06-2015, 09:52 AM #124
    That is what I am reading. 100% But what about this part "There are other ways they can deliver value to their shareholders at some point..." What do you think he is talking about there User or MadEra or Denco?

    Quote Originally Posted by user34615145 View Post
    Here's another great exchange and little nugget of information from the Q&A portion of the Liberty call:



    Bart Crockett - FBR Capital Markets & Co.
    Okay. Thanks for taking the question. I was wanting to ask about the ownership, the creeping ownership at SIRI, as you're at 59%, I think you were at 57% last quarter. In a year or so, you'll be up pushing 70% at this pace. Now at what point do you think, Greg, it becomes incumbent upon SIRI to maybe stop buying back shares or stop buying back shares as your ownership accretes? And can you walk through some scenarios that tell us how we would get out of that situation once we get there?

    Gregory Maffei - President & CEO
    Well, I think that's one that you're going to have to address more to the independent directors and counsel at SIRI. It's not our challenge, per se. I would state that sheer math would say, from Liberty's perspective, if they wanted to pay a big one-time special cash dividend because they got too high on the buyback and remembering our discount at LMC, we wouldn't probably complain because even after the tax at the moment that we would pay on that kind of a distribution, we'd be effective at buying our own stock back and still be able to capture more value. So I think are other things they can do. Look, they're a cash flow generating machine. There are other ways they can deliver value to their shareholders at some point, if our ownership gets too high, because of liquidity concerns or other concerns.

    Am I correct in reading this as Maffei saying essentially "look if they want to keep buying their shares back an that increases our stake, then who am I to stop them?"

    I think certainly from Maffei's perspective, if they can increase their stake from approx. 60% to 70% in the next year (assuming Crockett's math is correct) by just sitting back and letting SIRI buy back it's own stock on the open market, then it may pay him to wait a little while longer before he were to float another tender offer....as long as the share price were to remain muted.

  5. midas360 is offline
    08-06-2015, 10:02 AM #125
    I think BDP. hit on something that some of us lose sight of... "Barring any extreme macro pressures."

    I think it's fair to say that if this economy slows down, that could easily put pressure on ALL stocks despite what kind of quarter they've had. However, I would say it could present a buying opportunity.

    Quote Originally Posted by bdp. View Post
    On another note, I stand by my $4 close by tomorrow and holding above $4 thereafter, of course barring any extreme macro pressures.

  6. denco1 is offline
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    08-06-2015, 10:06 AM #126
    Quote Originally Posted by midas360 View Post
    That is what I am reading. 100% But what about this part "There are other ways they can deliver value to their shareholders at some point..." What do you think he is talking about there User or MadEra or Denco?

    Quarterly Div, accretive acquisition, merging and removing the uncertainty or blowing me frequently to release the stress associated with MaloneCos BS.


    EDIT: The widening discount to NAV is the streets way of telling Liberty that they aren't shit without SIRI and the don't particularly like the "games" BS that Liberty has and is playing going back to the forward contract 3 years ago to the initial BS merge ratio and so on. Get SIRI to buy back Liberty stock that is "undervalued" up to and until the discount to nav is wiped out. Then do the merge. Stop fkg around and do it.


    EDIT 2: There is no need continuing to buy back SIRI moving forward. At this point the right play is LMCA/K. You kill 2 birds with one stone by doing so. You potentially remove the discount to NAV and buy SIRI at a discount while pushing this more quickly to an eventual merge resulting in a singularly focused entity with an organic reverse split to boot.
    Last edited by denco1; 08-06-2015 at 10:26 AM.

  7. midas360 is offline
    08-06-2015, 10:10 AM #127
    HAHAHAHAHAHA... HAHA

    Quote Originally Posted by denco1 View Post
    Quarterly Div, accretive acquisition, merging and removing the uncertainty or blowing me frequently to release the stress associated with MaloneCos BS.

  8. user34615145 is offline
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    08-06-2015, 10:22 AM #128
    Quote Originally Posted by midas360 View Post
    That is what I am reading. 100% But what about this part "There are other ways they can deliver value to their shareholders at some point..." What do you think he is talking about there User or MadEra or Denco?
    I dunno.....Special Div would be #1 on my list of possibilities.

    On another note, I see where SiriusXM is offering complete coverage of the 2015 PGA Championships and is covering Pope Francis' Mass at Madison Square Garden.....so there's that. Personally I think SiriusXM should have a "shareholder channel" - perhaps a "town hall" format hosted by Howard Stern, where shareholders can call in to bitch about how the stock just sits there like a big ol pile of poo and Howard can just abuse the hell of them for expecting the poo to eventually turn into a pile of gold.
    Last edited by user34615145; 08-06-2015 at 10:26 AM.

  9. midas360 is offline
    08-06-2015, 10:22 AM #129
    5 Things Sirius XM's Management Wants You to Know

    http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...u-to-know.aspx

  10. dm_4 is offline
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    08-06-2015, 10:29 AM #130
    Quote Originally Posted by denco1 View Post
    Quarterly Div, accretive acquisition, merging and removing the uncertainty or blowing me frequently to release the stress associated with MaloneCos BS.


    EDIT: The widening discount to NAV is the streets way of telling Liberty that they aren't shit without SIRI and the don't particularly like the "games" BS that Liberty has and is playing going back to the forward contract 3 years ago to the initial BS merge ratio and so on. Get SIRI to buy back Liberty stock that is "undervalued" up to and until the discount to nav is wiped out. Then do the merge. Stop fkg around and do it.


    EDIT 2: There is no need continuing to buy back SIRI moving forward. At this point the right play is LMCA/K. You kill 2 birds with one stone by doing so. You potentially remove the discount to NAV and buy SIRI at a discount while pushing this more quickly to an eventual merge resulting in a singularly focused entity with an organic reverse split to boot.
    As to your EDIT 2 point...spot on. Many people actually did sell all their siri few years ago and bought lmca and or played both sides. I didn't....i stayed with siri.